在2024年10月25日至2025年1月16日之間

在2024年10月25日至2025年1月16日之間，XRP（XRP）是當前牛市最好的集會之一，獲得了600％

Between Oct. 25, 2024, and Jan. 16, 2025, XRP (XRP) had one of the best rallies of the current bull market, gaining 600% as investors piled in with the hope that a pro-crypto presidency would benefit Ripple and its cryptocurrency.

在2024年10月25日至2025年1月16日之間，XRP（XRP）是當前牛市中最好的集會之一，隨著投資者的投入，希望獲得親克賴普托總統的投資者將使Ripple及其加密貨幣受益600％。

During this time, the quarterly average of daily active addresses jumped by 490% and XRP price hit a 7-year high.

在此期間，每日活動地址的季度平均值躍升了490％，XRP價格達到了7年的最高水平。

XRP's 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

XRP的1天圖表。資料來源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

Fast forward to the present, and data shows that the speculative interest surrounding XRP is declining. Holders are increasingly facing losses rather than gains, which is dampening their risk appetite.

快進到現在，數據表明XRP周圍的投機興趣正在下降。持有人越來越面臨損失而不是收益，這正在抑制其風險食慾。

“Retail confidence in XRP may be slipping”

“ XRP的零售信心可能會滑倒”

Since bottoming in 2022, Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP have gained 500% to 600%, but the bulk of XRP’s gains came from a parabolic price increase. Data from Glassnode shows that XRP daily active addresses jumped by 490%, whereas the same metric for Bitcoin increased by 10% over the past four months.

自2022年的底部底層以來，比特幣（BTC）和XRP上漲了500％至600％，但XRP的大部分收益來自拋物線價格上漲。來自GlassNode的數據顯示，XRP每日活動地址躍升了490％，而比特幣的同一度量在過去四個月中增加了10％。

XRP's new investor realized the cap. Source: Glassnode

XRP的新投資者意識到了上限。來源：玻璃節

This retail-driven surge pushed XRP’s realized cap from $30.1 billion to $64.2 billion, with $30 billion of that inflow coming from investors in the last six months. The share of XRP’s realized cap held by new investors (less than six months) jumped from 23% to 62.8%, signaling a rapid wealth shift. However, since late February 2025, capital inflows have dipped significantly.

這次零售驅動的激增將XRP的實現上限從301億美元提高到642億美元，在過去六個月中，投資者中有300億美元的流入來自投資者。新投資者（不到六個月）持有的XRP實現的上限從23％躍升至62.8％，這表明財富的迅速轉移。但是，自2025年2月下旬以來，資本流入顯著下降。

XRP realized profit/loss ratio. Source: Glassnode

XRP實現了損益比。來源：玻璃節

The primary reason is that investors are currently locking in fewer profits and staring at higher losses. This can be identified by the realized loss/profit ratio, which has constantly declined since 2025. Glassnode analysts said,

主要原因是投資者目前正在鎖定利潤更少，盯著更高的損失。這可以通過已實現的損失/利潤率來確定，自2025年以來一直在下降。玻璃節分析師說，

Besides weakening confidence among newer investors, the distribution of XRP among whale addresses reflects a similar trend. Data shows a steady increase in whale outflows since the start of 2025, suggesting that large holders have been consistently trimming their positions. Over the past 14 days, over $1 billion in positions were offloaded at an average price of $2.10.

除了削弱新投資者之間的信心外，XRP在鯨魚地址之間的分佈也反映了類似的趨勢。數據表明，自2025年初以來，鯨魚流出量的穩定增加，這表明大型持有人一直在修剪其位置。在過去的14天中，超過10億美元的職位以2.10美元的平均價格卸載。

Whale flow 30-day moving average. Source: CryptoQuant

鯨流30天移動平均線。資料來源：加密

Related: How many US dollars does XRP transfer per day?

相關：XRP每天轉移多少美元？

Can XRP hold the $2 support?

XRP可以持有2美元的支持嗎？

XRP has found support at $2 multiple times over the past few weeks, but the chance of the altcoin dropping below this level increases with each retest.

在過去的幾周中，XRP的支持數量為2美元，但山寨幣降至此水平以下的機會隨著每次重新測試而增加。

XRP 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

XRP 4小時圖表。資料來源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

However, on the lower time frame (LTF) of the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, a bullish divergence can be observed for XRP. A bullish divergence occurs when the price forms a lower low and the relative strength index (RSI) forms a lower high.

但是，在1小時和4小時圖表的較低時間範圍（LTF）上，可以觀察到XRP的看漲差異。當價格形成較低的低點並且相對強度指數（RSI）形成較低的高度時，就會出現看漲的分歧。

With a fair value gap between $2.08 and $2.13, XRP might see a relief rally into this range, especially if the wider crypto market undergoes an oversold bounce. On the higher time frame chart, XRP appears bearish due to the formation of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, with a measured target near $1.07.

由於公允價值差距在2.08美元至2.13美元之間，XRP可能會看到該範圍內的浮雕，尤其是如果更廣泛的加密貨幣市場經歷了超售彈跳。在較高的時間範圍圖表上，由於形成了反向的頭和肩模式，XRP似乎是看跌，其目標目標接近$ 1.07。

There is a chance that the altcoin finds support from the 200-day moving average (orange line) around the $1.70 to $1.80 mark, but XRP price has not tested this level since Nov. 5, 2024.

Altcoin有可能從$ 1.70到$ 1.80左右的200天移動平均線（橙線）獲得支持，但是自2024年11月5日以來，XRP價格尚未測試此水平。

XRP 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

XRP 1天圖表。資料來源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

Related: Bitcoin drops 8%, US markets shed $2T in value — Should traders expect an oversold bounce?

相關：比特幣下降8％，美國市場的價值為2噸 - 交易者應該期望超售反彈嗎？

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投資建議或建議。每個投資和交易舉動都涉及風險，讀者在做出決定時應進行自己的研究。