在2024年10月25日至2025年1月16日之间

在2024年10月25日至2025年1月16日之间，XRP（XRP）是当前牛市最好的集会之一，获得了600％

Between Oct. 25, 2024, and Jan. 16, 2025, XRP (XRP) had one of the best rallies of the current bull market, gaining 600% as investors piled in with the hope that a pro-crypto presidency would benefit Ripple and its cryptocurrency.

在2024年10月25日至2025年1月16日之间，XRP（XRP）是当前牛市中最好的集会之一，随着投资者的投入，希望获得亲克赖普托总统的投资者将使Ripple及其加密货币受益600％。

During this time, the quarterly average of daily active addresses jumped by 490% and XRP price hit a 7-year high.

在此期间，每日活动地址的季度平均值跃升了490％，XRP价格达到了7年的最高水平。

XRP's 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

XRP的1天图表。资料来源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

Fast forward to the present, and data shows that the speculative interest surrounding XRP is declining. Holders are increasingly facing losses rather than gains, which is dampening their risk appetite.

快进到现在，数据表明XRP周围的投机兴趣正在下降。持有人越来越面临损失而不是收益，这正在抑制其风险食欲。

“Retail confidence in XRP may be slipping”

“ XRP的零售信心可能会滑倒”

Since bottoming in 2022, Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP have gained 500% to 600%, but the bulk of XRP’s gains came from a parabolic price increase. Data from Glassnode shows that XRP daily active addresses jumped by 490%, whereas the same metric for Bitcoin increased by 10% over the past four months.

自2022年的底部底层以来，比特币（BTC）和XRP上涨了500％至600％，但XRP的大部分收益来自抛物线价格上涨。来自GlassNode的数据显示，XRP每日活动地址跃升了490％，而比特币的同一度量在过去四个月中增加了10％。

XRP's new investor realized the cap. Source: Glassnode

XRP的新投资者意识到了上限。来源：玻璃节

This retail-driven surge pushed XRP’s realized cap from $30.1 billion to $64.2 billion, with $30 billion of that inflow coming from investors in the last six months. The share of XRP’s realized cap held by new investors (less than six months) jumped from 23% to 62.8%, signaling a rapid wealth shift. However, since late February 2025, capital inflows have dipped significantly.

这次零售驱动的激增将XRP的实现上限从301亿美元提高到642亿美元，在过去六个月中，投资者中有300亿美元的流入来自投资者。新投资者（不到六个月）持有的XRP实现的上限从23％跃升至62.8％，这表明财富的迅速转移。但是，自2025年2月下旬以来，资本流入显着下降。

XRP realized profit/loss ratio. Source: Glassnode

XRP实现了损益比。来源：玻璃节

The primary reason is that investors are currently locking in fewer profits and staring at higher losses. This can be identified by the realized loss/profit ratio, which has constantly declined since 2025. Glassnode analysts said,

主要原因是投资者目前正在锁定利润更少，盯着更高的损失。这可以通过已实现的损失/利润率来确定，自2025年以来一直在下降。玻璃节分析师说，

Besides weakening confidence among newer investors, the distribution of XRP among whale addresses reflects a similar trend. Data shows a steady increase in whale outflows since the start of 2025, suggesting that large holders have been consistently trimming their positions. Over the past 14 days, over $1 billion in positions were offloaded at an average price of $2.10.

除了削弱新投资者之间的信心外，XRP在鲸鱼地址之间的分布也反映了类似的趋势。数据表明，自2025年初以来，鲸鱼流出量的稳定增加，这表明大型持有人一直在修剪其位置。在过去的14天中，超过10亿美元的职位以2.10美元的平均价格卸载。

Whale flow 30-day moving average. Source: CryptoQuant

鲸流30天移动平均线。资料来源：加密

Related: How many US dollars does XRP transfer per day?

相关：XRP每天转移多少美元？

Can XRP hold the $2 support?

XRP可以持有2美元的支持吗？

XRP has found support at $2 multiple times over the past few weeks, but the chance of the altcoin dropping below this level increases with each retest.

在过去的几周中，XRP的支持数量为2美元，但山寨币降至此水平以下的机会随着每次重新测试而增加。

XRP 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

XRP 4小时图表。资料来源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

However, on the lower time frame (LTF) of the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, a bullish divergence can be observed for XRP. A bullish divergence occurs when the price forms a lower low and the relative strength index (RSI) forms a lower high.

但是，在1小时和4小时图表的较低时间范围（LTF）上，可以观察到XRP的看涨差异。当价格形成较低的低点并且相对强度指数（RSI）形成较低的高度时，就会出现看涨的分歧。

With a fair value gap between $2.08 and $2.13, XRP might see a relief rally into this range, especially if the wider crypto market undergoes an oversold bounce. On the higher time frame chart, XRP appears bearish due to the formation of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, with a measured target near $1.07.

由于公允价值差距在2.08美元至2.13美元之间，XRP可能会看到该范围内的浮雕，尤其是如果更广泛的加密货币市场经历了超售弹跳。在较高的时间范围图表上，由于形成了反向的头和肩模式，XRP似乎是看跌，其目标目标接近$ 1.07。

There is a chance that the altcoin finds support from the 200-day moving average (orange line) around the $1.70 to $1.80 mark, but XRP price has not tested this level since Nov. 5, 2024.

Altcoin有可能从$ 1.70到$ 1.80左右的200天移动平均线（橙线）获得支持，但是自2024年11月5日以来，XRP价格尚未测试此水平。

XRP 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

XRP 1天图表。资料来源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

Related: Bitcoin drops 8%, US markets shed $2T in value — Should traders expect an oversold bounce?

相关：比特币下降8％，美国市场的价值为2吨 - 交易者应该期望超售反弹吗？

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投资建议或建议。每个投资和交易举动都涉及风险，读者在做出决定时应进行自己的研究。