财政主导地位构成威胁，增强了比特币的对冲作用

渣打银行的杰夫·肯德里克强调，美国财政主导地位的风险日益增大，债务和赤字不断上升，预示着一条不可持续的道路。这种情况可能为比特币创造有利的条件，因为比特币兑美元的价格与美国国债收益率曲线的潜在影响具有很强的相关性，包括收益率差距扩大、通胀盈亏平衡增加和期限溢价上升。肯德里克表示，比特币可以对冲去美元化和在财政主导下对 UST 市场信心下降的风险。

Fiscal Dominance Looms, Enhancing Bitcoin's Appeal as a Hedge

财政主导地位迫在眉睫，增强了比特币作为对冲工具的吸引力

As the United States grapples with mounting debt and deficits, the risk of fiscal dominance is escalating. This economic phenomenon poses a significant threat to monetary policy independence, potentially undermining central banks' ability to control inflation. According to Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered, fiscal dominance is a harbinger of good news for Bitcoin (BTC-USD).

随着美国努力应对不断增加的债务和赤字，财政主导地位的风险正在升级。这种经济现象对货币政策的独立性构成重大威胁，可能削弱央行控制通胀的能力。渣打银行的 Geoff Kendrick 表示，财政主导地位对比特币（BTC-USD）来说是好消息的先兆。

Understanding Fiscal Dominance

了解财政主导地位

Fiscal dominance occurs when government fiscal actions overpower the autonomy of monetary policy. This dynamic forces central banks to accommodate government spending, compromising their ability to manage inflation effectively.

当政府的财政行动压倒货币政策的自主权时，就会出现财政主导地位。这种动态迫使央行适应政府支出，从而损害了它们有效管理通胀的能力。

Implications for the Treasury Yield Curve

对国债收益率曲线的影响

Fiscal dominance has several implications for the Treasury yield curve:

财政主导地位对国债收益率曲线有几个影响：

• Widening yield spread between 2-year (US2Y) bills and 10-year (US10Y) notes, resulting in a steeper yield gap.
• Greater increase in inflation breakevens compared to inflation-adjusted yields.
• Higher term premium, reflecting investors' demand for additional compensation for holding longer-term bonds.

Bitcoin's Correlation to Fiscal Dominance

2年期（US2Y）票据和10年期（US10Y）票据之间的收益率利差扩大，导致收益率差距更大。与通胀调整后的收益率相比，通胀盈亏平衡点更大。期限溢价更高，反映出投资者对额外补偿的需求持有长期债券。比特币与财政主导地位的相关性

Kendrick emphasizes the strong correlation between the price of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and the aforementioned effects of fiscal dominance. He believes that in a scenario of US fiscal dominance, BTC would serve as an effective hedge against de-dollarization and declining confidence in the US Treasury market.

肯德里克强调比特币（BTC-USD）的价格与上述财政主导地位的影响之间存在很强的相关性。他认为，在美国财政主导的情况下，比特币将成为对抗去美元化和美国国债市场信心下降的有效对冲工具。

JPMorgan's View

摩根大通的观点

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, a long-time Bitcoin critic, shares Kendrick's concerns about fiscal dominance. He recently highlighted the US economy's dependence on government spending, acknowledging the inflationary risks associated with a debt-fueled economy.

摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）是一位长期比特币批评者，他与肯德里克一样对财政主导地位感到担忧。他最近强调了美国经济对政府支出的依赖，承认债务驱动型经济带来的通胀风险。

Additional Factors Favoring Bitcoin

有利于比特币的其他因素

Standard Chartered's note highlights that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) tends to perform well relative to traditional financial assets when the banking system is under stress or when central banks engage in quantitative easing. However, heightened geopolitical risk remains a concern for the token.

渣打银行的报告强调，当银行体系面临压力或央行实施量化宽松时，比特币（BTC-USD）相对于传统金融资产往往表现良好。然而，地缘政治风险加剧仍然是该代币的一个担忧。

The Impact of a Trump Victory

特朗普胜利的影响

Kendrick believes that a presidential election win by Donald Trump would be beneficial for Bitcoin (BTC-USD). He anticipates "looser regulation and the approval of US spot ETFs" under a Trump administration.

肯德里克认为，唐纳德·特朗普赢得总统选举将对比特币（BTC-USD）有利。他预计特朗普政府将“放松监管并批准美国现货 ETF”。

Price Targets

价格目标

Kendrick reiterates his price targets for Bitcoin (BTC-USD): $150K by the end of 2024 and $200K by the end of 2025. The average SA analyst maintains a Buy rating for BTC, with one Strong Buy, nine Buy, three Hold, and one Sell recommendation.

Kendrick 重申了他对比特币 (BTC-USD) 的价格目标：到 2024 年底为 15 万美元，到 2025 年底为 20 万美元。 SA 分析师平均维持 BTC 的买入评级，其中 1 人强烈买入，9 人买入，3 人持有，以及一项销售推荐。

Current Market Conditions

目前的市场状况

As of Saturday afternoon trading, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading at $61.3K, down 13% month-over-month but up 45% year-to-date and 122% from a year ago. BTC had reached an all-time high of over $73K in March, but has since retreated amid investor expectations of interest rate hikes in response to persistent inflation.

截至周六下午交易，比特币 (BTC-USD) 交易价格为 6.13 万美元，环比下跌 13%，但年初至今上涨 45%，较去年同期上涨 122%。 BTC 在 3 月份曾创下超过 7.3 万美元的历史新高，但此后由于投资者预期加息以应对持续通胀，比特币价格回落。

Conclusion

结论

The growing risk of fiscal dominance in the US, combined with other factors such as a potential Trump election win, suggests that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) may emerge as a valuable hedge against economic uncertainty. Its strong correlation to the effects of fiscal dominance and its performance under stress conditions make it a compelling investment in the current market environment.

美国财政主导地位的风险日益增加，再加上特朗普可能获胜等其他因素，表明比特币（BTC-USD）可能会成为对抗经济不确定性的宝贵对冲工具。它与财政主导地位的影响及其在压力条件下的表现密切相关，使其成为当前市场环境下一项引人注目的投资。