2024年的金融市场正面临身份危机

一方面，标准普尔 500 指数和道琼斯指数等基准股指正在稳步攀升，并展现出它们平静的实力。另一方面，比特币正在横冲直撞，将谨慎抛诸脑后，逼近 10 万美元。

The financial market of 2024 feels like it’s having an identity crisis. Structured and disciplined on one side, chaotic and high on adrenaline on the other.

2024 年的金融市场感觉正在经历一场身份危机。一方面是井然有序、纪律严明，另一方面是混乱且肾上腺素飙升。

On one hand, we’ve got benchmark stock indexes like the S&P 500 and the Dow, climbing steadily and showing off their quiet strength. On the other, Bitcoin is on a rampage, throwing caution to the wind and pushing closer to $100,000.

一方面，标准普尔 500 指数和道琼斯指数等基准股指正在稳步攀升，并展现出它们平静的实力。另一方面，比特币正在横冲直撞，将谨慎抛诸脑后，逼近 10 万美元。

The S&P 500 has been all business lately. After the post-election buzz took it to a 25% gain for the year, the index cooled off just enough to test its October highs. Last week, it bounced back with a 1.7% rise.

标准普尔 500 指数最近表现良好。在大选后的热潮推动该指数全年上涨 25% 后，该指数降温至足以测试 10 月份高点。上周，它以 1.7% 的涨幅反弹。

Most stocks have been pulling their weight, and financials and cyclical sectors are leading the charge. The optimism is tied to what’s coming next: a Trump administration that’s expected to pump out policies aimed at expanding the economy and boosting earnings growth.

大多数股票一直在发挥作用，其中金融和周期性板块处于领先地位。这种乐观情绪与接下来发生的事情有关：预计特朗普政府将出台旨在扩大经济和促进盈利增长的政策。

Bitcoin though? It’s on a whole different wavelength. The apex crypto is up 40% this month alone, and it’s not showing signs of slowing down. Traders are betting big, fueled by aggressive headlines and the belief that Bitcoin is about to go mainstream with new government support.

比特币呢？它处于完全不同的波长。仅本月，apex 加密货币就上涨了 40%，并且没有显示出放缓的迹象。在激进的头条新闻和相信比特币将在新的政府支持下成为主流的信念的推动下，交易员们下了大赌注。

It’s feeding on the kind of fervor that turns Thanksgiving dinners into full-blown money talk. But there’s no ignoring the risks—Bitcoin is overbought, its chart is overheating, and the race to $100,000 feels more like a sprint than a marathon. But that’s just how we roll, isn’t it?

它的热情使感恩节晚餐变成了全面的金钱谈话。但风险不容忽视——比特币已经超买，图表过热，冲向 10 万美元的竞赛感觉更像是一场短跑而不是马拉松。但这就是我们的滚动方式，不是吗？

Bitcoin takes the wheel

比特币掌舵

Bitcoin is a party starter, and its mania has spilled over into crypto-linked stocks, penny stocks, leveraged ETFs, and even speculative tech plays that were left for dead after the 2021 bust.

比特币是派对的开端，它的狂热已经蔓延到与加密货币相关的股票、细价股、杠杆 ETF，甚至是 2021 年泡沫破灭后被遗弃的投机性科技股。

Take MicroStrategy for example. The company has turned itself into a Bitcoin holding tank, using billions of dollars raised through stock sales and debt to buy more Bitcoin. It’s a self-reinforcing cycle: more Bitcoin means more enthusiasm and more enthusiasm means retail traders piling in.

以 MicroStrategy 为例。该公司已将自己变成了比特币持有罐，利用通过股票销售和债务筹集的数十亿美元购买更多比特币。这是一个自我强化的循环：更多的比特币意味着更多的热情，更多的热情意味着零售交易者蜂拥而至。

Last week, retail buying tripled just as MicroStrategy’s stock hit a $100 billion market cap — three times the value of its Bitcoin stash.

上周，当 MicroStrategy 的股票市值达到 1000 亿美元（是其比特币储备价值的三倍）时，散户购买量增加了两倍。

If MicroStrategy’s wild ride isn’t enough, there are leveraged ETFs that take things to the next level. MSTU, an ETF tied solely to MicroStrategy shares, has seen its trading volume double this month. But things are getting dicey.

如果 MicroStrategy 的疯狂之旅还不够，还有杠杆 ETF 可以将事情提升到一个新的水平。 MSTU 是一款仅与 MicroStrategy 股票挂钩的 ETF，本月交易量翻了一番。但事情变得越来越危险。

Reports say that fund sponsors are scrambling to replicate promised returns because brokers are capping their exposure. It’s a high-stakes game, and the cracks are starting to show.

报道称，基金发起人正争先恐后地复制承诺的回报，因为经纪人限制了他们的风险敞口。这是一场高风险的游戏，而且裂缝已经开始显现。

Cross the market, leveraged-long ETFs are seeing near-record inflows compared to short ETFs. According to SentimenTrader, the last time this happened was in late 2021—right before a major market peak.

在整个市场中，与空头 ETF 相比，杠杆多头 ETF 的资金流入接近创纪录水平。据 SentimenTrader 称，上一次发生这种情况是在 2021 年底——就在主要市场高峰之前。

Net inflows to stock ETFs are also hitting multi-year highs, though they’re not as extreme relative to market value as they were back then. Still, it’s clear that money is pouring into high-risk plays, and the appetite for speculation is alive and well.

股票 ETF 的净流入也创下了多年来的新高，尽管相对于市值而言并不像当时那么极端。尽管如此，很明显资金正在涌入高风险投资领域，而且投机兴趣依然旺盛。

S&P 500: Slow and steady

标准普尔 500 指数：缓慢而稳定

Amid the chaos, the S&P 500 is staying cool. Earnings are climbing, GDP growth is holding above 2%, and the Federal Reserve is trimming rates at a measured pace. Credit spreads are tame, and seasonal trends are providing an extra boost.

在混乱之中，标准普尔 500 指数却保持冷静。企业盈利正在攀升，GDP 增长率保持在 2% 以上，美联储正在有节奏地降息。信用利差温和，季节性趋势提供了额外的推动力。

Wall Street strategists are bullish, revising their 2025 targets upward. Some are projecting an 11% gain for the S&P 500, pushing it to 6,600.

华尔街策略师持乐观态度，上调了 2025 年的目标。一些人预计标准普尔 500 指数将上涨 11%，达到 6,600 点。

It’s not an outlandish prediction, but it’s worth noting that these targets are coming off relatively low levels. Investor sentiment is getting frothy but hasn’t reached dangerous extremes. That doesn’t mean everything’s fine, though.

这并不是一个奇怪的预测，但值得注意的是，这些目标的水平相对较低。投资者情绪正在变得泡沫化，但尚未达到危险的极端。但这并不意味着一切都很好。

The speculative frenzy surrounding Bitcoin and crypto-linked assets is a stark contrast to the measured advance of the S&P 500. It’s a reminder that the market is split, with one foot in reality and the other in fantasy.

围绕比特币和加密货币相关资产的投机狂潮与标准普尔 500 指数的上涨形成鲜明对比。这提醒人们，市场是分裂的，一只脚在现实中，另一只脚在幻想中。

But here’s the thing: the line between these two worlds isn’t as clear as it seems. Bitcoin’s rise is pulling energy from other high-flyers like Nvidia, which has been trading flat despite strong earnings and guidance. Nvidia has added $2.3 trillion in market value this year alone, but the Bitcoin frenzy might be stealing its thunder.

但事情是这样的：这两个世界之间的界限并不像看起来那么清晰。比特币的上涨正在从英伟达等其他雄心勃勃的公司中汲取能量，尽管其盈利和指引强劲，但其股价一直持平。仅今年一年，Nvidia 的市值就增加了 2.3 万亿美元，但比特币的狂热可能抢走了它的风头。