2024年的金融市場正面臨身分危機

一方面，標準普爾 500 指數和道瓊斯指數等基準股指正在穩步攀升，並展現出它們平靜的實力。另一方面，比特幣正在橫衝直撞，將謹慎拋諸腦後，逼近 10 萬美元。

The financial market of 2024 feels like it’s having an identity crisis. Structured and disciplined on one side, chaotic and high on adrenaline on the other.

2024 年的金融市場感覺正在經歷一場身分危機。一方面是井然有序、紀律嚴明，另一方面是混亂且腎上腺素飆升。

On one hand, we’ve got benchmark stock indexes like the S&P 500 and the Dow, climbing steadily and showing off their quiet strength. On the other, Bitcoin is on a rampage, throwing caution to the wind and pushing closer to $100,000.

一方面，標準普爾 500 指數和道瓊斯指數等基準股指正在穩步攀升，並展現出它們平靜的實力。另一方面，比特幣正在橫衝直撞，將謹慎拋諸腦後，逼近 10 萬美元。

The S&P 500 has been all business lately. After the post-election buzz took it to a 25% gain for the year, the index cooled off just enough to test its October highs. Last week, it bounced back with a 1.7% rise.

標準普爾 500 指數最近表現良好。在大選後的熱潮推動該指數全年上漲 25% 後，該指數降溫至足以測試 10 月高點。上週，它以 1.7% 的漲幅反彈。

Most stocks have been pulling their weight, and financials and cyclical sectors are leading the charge. The optimism is tied to what’s coming next: a Trump administration that’s expected to pump out policies aimed at expanding the economy and boosting earnings growth.

大多數股票一直在發揮作用，其中金融和週期性板塊處於領先地位。這種樂觀情緒與接下來發生的事情有關：預計川普政府將推出旨在擴大經濟和促進獲利成長的政策。

Bitcoin though? It’s on a whole different wavelength. The apex crypto is up 40% this month alone, and it’s not showing signs of slowing down. Traders are betting big, fueled by aggressive headlines and the belief that Bitcoin is about to go mainstream with new government support.

比特幣呢？它處於完全不同的波長。光是本月，apex 加密貨幣就上漲了 40%，並且沒有顯示出放緩的跡象。在激進的頭條新聞和相信比特幣將在新的政府支持下成為主流的信念的推動下，交易員們下了大賭注。

It’s feeding on the kind of fervor that turns Thanksgiving dinners into full-blown money talk. But there’s no ignoring the risks—Bitcoin is overbought, its chart is overheating, and the race to $100,000 feels more like a sprint than a marathon. But that’s just how we roll, isn’t it?

它的熱情使感恩節晚餐變成了全面的金錢談話。但風險不容忽視——比特幣已經超買，圖表過熱，衝向 10 萬美元的競賽感覺更像是一場短跑而不是馬拉松。但這就是我們滾動的方式，不是嗎？

Bitcoin takes the wheel

比特幣掌舵

Bitcoin is a party starter, and its mania has spilled over into crypto-linked stocks, penny stocks, leveraged ETFs, and even speculative tech plays that were left for dead after the 2021 bust.

比特幣是派對的開端，它的狂熱已經蔓延到與加密貨幣相關的股票、細價股、槓桿 ETF，甚至是 2021 年泡沫破滅後被遺棄的投機性科技股。

Take MicroStrategy for example. The company has turned itself into a Bitcoin holding tank, using billions of dollars raised through stock sales and debt to buy more Bitcoin. It’s a self-reinforcing cycle: more Bitcoin means more enthusiasm and more enthusiasm means retail traders piling in.

以 MicroStrategy 為例。該公司已將自己變成了比特幣持有罐，利用透過股票銷售和債務籌集的數十億美元購買更多比特幣。這是一個自我強化的循環：更多的比特幣意味著更多的熱情，更多的熱情意味著零售交易者蜂擁而至。

Last week, retail buying tripled just as MicroStrategy’s stock hit a $100 billion market cap — three times the value of its Bitcoin stash.

上週，當 MicroStrategy 的股票市值達到 1,000 億美元（是其比特幣儲備價值的三倍）時，散戶購買量增加了兩倍。

If MicroStrategy’s wild ride isn’t enough, there are leveraged ETFs that take things to the next level. MSTU, an ETF tied solely to MicroStrategy shares, has seen its trading volume double this month. But things are getting dicey.

如果 MicroStrategy 的瘋狂之旅還不夠，還有槓桿 ETF 可以將事情提升到一個新的水平。 MSTU 是一款僅與 MicroStrategy 股票掛鉤的 ETF，本月交易量翻了一番。但事情變得越來越危險。

Reports say that fund sponsors are scrambling to replicate promised returns because brokers are capping their exposure. It’s a high-stakes game, and the cracks are starting to show.

報道稱，基金發起人正爭先恐後地複製承諾的回報，因為經紀人限制了他們的風險敞口。這是一場高風險的遊戲，而且裂縫已經開始顯現。

Cross the market, leveraged-long ETFs are seeing near-record inflows compared to short ETFs. According to SentimenTrader, the last time this happened was in late 2021—right before a major market peak.

在整個市場中，與空頭 ETF 相比，槓桿多頭 ETF 的資金流入接近創紀錄水準。據 SentimenTrader 稱，上一次發生這種情況是在 2021 年底——就在主要市場高峰之前。

Net inflows to stock ETFs are also hitting multi-year highs, though they’re not as extreme relative to market value as they were back then. Still, it’s clear that money is pouring into high-risk plays, and the appetite for speculation is alive and well.

股票 ETF 的淨流入也​​創下了多年來的新高，儘管相對於市值而言並不像當時那麼極端。儘管如此，很明顯資金正湧入高創投領域，投機興趣依然強勁。

S&P 500: Slow and steady

標普 500 指數：緩慢而穩定

Amid the chaos, the S&P 500 is staying cool. Earnings are climbing, GDP growth is holding above 2%, and the Federal Reserve is trimming rates at a measured pace. Credit spreads are tame, and seasonal trends are providing an extra boost.

在混亂之中，標準普爾 500 指數卻保持冷靜。企業獲利正在攀升，GDP 成長率保持在 2% 以上，而聯準會正在有節奏地降息。信用利差溫和，季節性趨勢提供了額外的推動力。

Wall Street strategists are bullish, revising their 2025 targets upward. Some are projecting an 11% gain for the S&P 500, pushing it to 6,600.

華爾街策略師持樂觀態度，上調了 2025 年的目標。有些人預計標準普爾 500 指數將上漲 11%，達到 6,600 點。

It’s not an outlandish prediction, but it’s worth noting that these targets are coming off relatively low levels. Investor sentiment is getting frothy but hasn’t reached dangerous extremes. That doesn’t mean everything’s fine, though.

這並不是一個奇怪的預測，但值得注意的是，這些目標的水平相對較低。投資者情緒正在變得泡沫化，但尚未達到危險的極端。但這並不意味著一切都很好。

The speculative frenzy surrounding Bitcoin and crypto-linked assets is a stark contrast to the measured advance of the S&P 500. It’s a reminder that the market is split, with one foot in reality and the other in fantasy.

圍繞比特幣和加密貨幣相關資產的投機狂潮與標準普爾 500 指數的上漲形成鮮明對比。

But here’s the thing: the line between these two worlds isn’t as clear as it seems. Bitcoin’s rise is pulling energy from other high-flyers like Nvidia, which has been trading flat despite strong earnings and guidance. Nvidia has added $2.3 trillion in market value this year alone, but the Bitcoin frenzy might be stealing its thunder.

但事情是這樣的：這兩個世界之間的界線並不像看起來那麼清晰。比特幣的崛起正在從英偉達等其他雄心勃勃的公司中汲取能量，儘管其盈利和指引強勁，但其股價一直持平。光是今年，Nvidia 的市值就增加了 2.3 兆美元，但比特幣的狂熱可能搶走了它的風頭。