由于市场转变，富达将比特币预测下调至“中性”

在富达数字资产最新的信号报告中，比特币的中期预测已从“积极”转向“中性”。这一调整归因于比特币标尺所表明的估值的潜在变化，该标尺量化了加密货币是否被低估。此外，长期持有者抛售压力增加以及利润地址涌入（99%）等因素也导致了这种中性前景。

Fidelity Downgrades Medium-Term Bitcoin Forecast to "Neutral" Amidst Market Shift

由于市场转变，富达将中期比特币预测下调至“中性”

In its latest Signals report, Fidelity Digital Assets has revised its medium-term outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) to "neutral" from "positive," acknowledging a shift in market dynamics.

在其最新的信号报告中，富达数字资产公司将比特币（BTC）的中期前景从“积极”调整为“中性”，承认市场动态发生了变化。

Bitcoin's Valuation: From Affordable to Potentially Overvalued

比特币的估值：从可承受到可能被高估

Previously, Bitcoin was considered affordable based on the Bitcoin Yardstick, a valuation tool similar to the price-to-earnings ratio used in stock evaluations. However, during the first quarter of 2024, the Yardstick consistently indicated that Bitcoin was trading above its mean of 51%, suggesting it was potentially overvalued.

此前，比特币被认为是可以承受的，是基于比特币标尺，这是一种类似于股票评估中使用的市盈率的估值工具。然而，在 2024 年第一季度，Yardstick 始终表明比特币的交易价格高于其平均值 51%，这表明它可能被高估了。

99% of Bitcoin Addresses in Profit, Triggering Potential Sell-Offs

99% 的比特币地址盈利，引发潜在抛售

Moreover, the report highlights that 99% of Bitcoin addresses are currently in profit, creating incentives for selling and adding to potential downward pressure on the cryptocurrency's price.

此外，该报告强调，99% 的比特币地址目前都在盈利，这刺激了抛售行为，并增加了加密货币价格的潜在下行压力。

On-Chain Indicators Point to Neutral Assessment

链上指标指向中性评估

Other on-chain indicators, such as the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio and the MVRV Z-Score, further support the neutral assessment. These metrics suggest that Bitcoin is neither significantly overvalued nor undervalued relative to its "fair value."

其他链上指标，例如未实现净损益（NUPL）比率和 MVRV Z 分数，进一步支持中性评估。这些指标表明，相对于其“公允价值”，比特币既没有被严重高估，也没有被低估。

Short-Term Optimism Despite Neutral Medium-Term Outlook

尽管中期前景中性，但短期乐观

Despite the neutral medium-term forecast, Fidelity remains optimistic about Bitcoin's short-term prospects. The firm notes the potential for short-term profit-taking as Q1 2024 concludes but emphasizes the absence of extreme indicators typically associated with bull market peaks.

尽管中期预测为中性，富达仍对比特币的短期前景持乐观态度。该公司注意到 2024 年第一季度结束时存在短期获利回吐的可能性，但强调不存在通常与牛市顶峰相关的极端指标。

Bitcoin in the Midst of Bull Cycle, According to Fidelity Research Director

富达研究总监表示，比特币正处于牛市周期之中

Throughout the first quarter, Bitcoin exhibited bullish momentum, consistently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Chris Kuiper, Fidelity's director of research, believes that the cryptocurrency is in the midst of a bull cycle, with on-chain indicators pointing to substantial growth from recent lows.

在整个第一季度，比特币表现出看涨势头，持续高于 50 日和 200 日移动均线。富达研究总监 Chris Kuiper 认为，加密货币正处于牛市周期之中，链上指标表明该加密货币将从近期低点大幅增长。

Robust On-Chain Accumulation and Support Levels

强大的链上积累和支持水平

Fidelity's report also emphasizes robust on-chain accumulation by smaller investors, as well as a decline in exchange balances, indicating a preference for self-custody and reduced selling pressure. Additionally, the realized price, which estimates the average cost basis for Bitcoin holders, has established a strong support level at approximately $28,000.

富达的报告还强调了小型投资者强劲的链上积累以及外汇余额的下降，表明他们倾向于自我托管并减少抛售压力。此外，已实现的价格（估计比特币持有者的平均成本基础）已在约 28,000 美元处建立了强大的支撑位。

Market Midpoint, with Historical Gains Expected in Second Half of Cycle

市场中点，预计周期后半段将出现历史性涨幅

Kuiper emphasizes that the market is not yet approaching historical extreme highs, suggesting it is at a midpoint in the market cycle. Historically, most price gains have occurred in the latter half of these cycles.

柯伊伯强调，市场尚未接近历史极端高点，这表明目前正处于市场周期的中点。从历史上看，大多数价格上涨都发生在这些周期的后半段。

Modest Uptick Post Halving Event

减半事件后小幅上涨

After a period of range-bound movement, Bitcoin has recently experienced a modest uptick. Following the weekend's halving event, the cryptocurrency achieved a ten-day high of $66,863.

经过一段时间的区间波动后，比特币最近经历了小幅上涨。周末减半事件之后，该加密货币创下十日高点 66,863 美元。

Conclusion

结论

Fidelity's revised medium-term forecast for Bitcoin to "neutral" reflects a shift in market dynamics, with potential selling pressures stemming from overvaluation and profit-taking. However, the firm remains optimistic about the short-term prospects, acknowledging the cryptocurrency's bullish momentum and robust on-chain activity. Fidelity also anticipates significant price gains in the latter half of the current market cycle.

富达将比特币的中期预测修改为“中性”，反映出市场动态的转变，潜在的抛售压力来自于估值过高和获利了结。然而，该公司对短期前景仍然乐观，承认加密货币的看涨势头和强劲的链上活动。富达还预计，当前市场周期的后半段价格将大幅上涨。