由於市場轉變，富達將比特幣預測下調至“中性”

在富達數位資產最新的訊號報告中，比特幣的中期預測已從「積極」轉向「中性」。這項調整歸因於比特幣標尺所顯示的估值的潛在變化，該標尺量化了加密貨幣是否被低估。此外，長期持有者拋售壓力增加以及利潤地址湧入（99%）等因素也導致了這種中性前景。

Fidelity Downgrades Medium-Term Bitcoin Forecast to "Neutral" Amidst Market Shift

由於市場轉變，富達將中期比特幣預測下調至“中性”

In its latest Signals report, Fidelity Digital Assets has revised its medium-term outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) to "neutral" from "positive," acknowledging a shift in market dynamics.

在其最新的訊號報告中，富達數位資產公司將比特幣（BTC）的中期前景從“積極”調整為“中性”，承認市場動態發生了變化。

Bitcoin's Valuation: From Affordable to Potentially Overvalued

比特幣的估值：從可承受到可能被高估

Previously, Bitcoin was considered affordable based on the Bitcoin Yardstick, a valuation tool similar to the price-to-earnings ratio used in stock evaluations. However, during the first quarter of 2024, the Yardstick consistently indicated that Bitcoin was trading above its mean of 51%, suggesting it was potentially overvalued.

此前，比特幣被認為是可以承受的，是基於比特幣標尺，這是一種類似於股票評估中使用的市盈率的估值工具。然而，在 2024 年第一季度，Yardstick 始終表明比特幣的交易價格高於其平均值 51%，這表明它可能被高估了。

99% of Bitcoin Addresses in Profit, Triggering Potential Sell-Offs

99% 的比特幣地址獲利，引發潛在拋售

Moreover, the report highlights that 99% of Bitcoin addresses are currently in profit, creating incentives for selling and adding to potential downward pressure on the cryptocurrency's price.

此外，該報告強調，99% 的比特幣地址目前都在獲利，這刺激了拋售行為，並增加了加密貨幣價格的潛在下行壓力。

On-Chain Indicators Point to Neutral Assessment

鏈上指標指向中性評估

Other on-chain indicators, such as the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio and the MVRV Z-Score, further support the neutral assessment. These metrics suggest that Bitcoin is neither significantly overvalued nor undervalued relative to its "fair value."

其他鏈上指標，例如未實現淨損益（NUPL）比率和 MVRV Z 分數，進一步支持中性評估。這些指標表明，相對於其“公允價值”，比特幣既沒有被嚴重高估，也沒有被低估。

Short-Term Optimism Despite Neutral Medium-Term Outlook

儘管中期前景中性，但短期樂觀

Despite the neutral medium-term forecast, Fidelity remains optimistic about Bitcoin's short-term prospects. The firm notes the potential for short-term profit-taking as Q1 2024 concludes but emphasizes the absence of extreme indicators typically associated with bull market peaks.

儘管中期預測為中性，富達仍對比特幣的短期前景持樂觀態度。該公司注意到 2024 年第一季結束時存在短期獲利回吐的可能性，但強調不存在通常與牛市頂峰相關的極端指標。

Bitcoin in the Midst of Bull Cycle, According to Fidelity Research Director

富達研究總監表示，比特幣正處於牛市週期之中

Throughout the first quarter, Bitcoin exhibited bullish momentum, consistently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Chris Kuiper, Fidelity's director of research, believes that the cryptocurrency is in the midst of a bull cycle, with on-chain indicators pointing to substantial growth from recent lows.

在整個第一季度，比特幣表現出看漲勢頭，持續高於 50 日和 200 日移動均線。富達研究總監 Chris Kuiper 認為，加密貨幣正處於牛市週期之中，鏈上指標顯示該加密貨幣將從近期低點大幅成長。

Robust On-Chain Accumulation and Support Levels

強大的鏈上累積和支持水平

Fidelity's report also emphasizes robust on-chain accumulation by smaller investors, as well as a decline in exchange balances, indicating a preference for self-custody and reduced selling pressure. Additionally, the realized price, which estimates the average cost basis for Bitcoin holders, has established a strong support level at approximately $28,000.

富達的報告還強調了小型投資者強勁的鏈上累積以及外匯餘額的下降，表明他們傾向於自我託管並減少拋售壓力。此外，已實現的價格（估計比特幣持有者的平均成本基礎）已在約 28,000 美元處建立了強大的支撐位。

Market Midpoint, with Historical Gains Expected in Second Half of Cycle

市場中點，預計週期後半段將出現歷史性漲幅

Kuiper emphasizes that the market is not yet approaching historical extreme highs, suggesting it is at a midpoint in the market cycle. Historically, most price gains have occurred in the latter half of these cycles.

柯伊伯強調，市場尚未接近歷史極端高點，這顯示目前正處於市場週期的中點。從歷史上看，大多數價格上漲都發生在這些週期的後半段。

Modest Uptick Post Halving Event

減半事件後小幅上漲

After a period of range-bound movement, Bitcoin has recently experienced a modest uptick. Following the weekend's halving event, the cryptocurrency achieved a ten-day high of $66,863.

經過一段時間的區間波動後，比特幣最近經歷了小幅上漲。週末減半事件後，加密貨幣創下十日高點 66,863 美元。

Conclusion

結論

Fidelity's revised medium-term forecast for Bitcoin to "neutral" reflects a shift in market dynamics, with potential selling pressures stemming from overvaluation and profit-taking. However, the firm remains optimistic about the short-term prospects, acknowledging the cryptocurrency's bullish momentum and robust on-chain activity. Fidelity also anticipates significant price gains in the latter half of the current market cycle.

富達將比特幣的中期預測修改為“中性”，反映出市場動態的轉變，潛在的拋售壓力來自於估值過高和獲利了結。然而，該公司對短期前景仍然樂觀，承認加密貨幣的看漲勢頭和強勁的鏈上活動。富達也預計，當前市場週期的後半段價格將大幅上漲。