美联储的决定如何影响风险资产

今天上午联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 会议的结果震惊了主要风险资产，包括股票、澳元/美元和比特币

The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a smaller rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) on Wednesday, bringing the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The decision, which was largely anticipated by markets, had a significant impact on various risk assets and caused the US dollar and US yields to surge higher.

美联储 (Fed) 周三宣布小幅降息 25 个基点 (bps)，将基准利率调整至 4.25% 至 4.50% 的区间。这一在市场预期中的决定对各类风险资产产生了重大影响，并导致美元和美国收益率飙升。

The Fed's decision to slow the pace of rate cuts in 2025 also had a notable effect on markets. The median dot plot for 2025 now shows only two 25 bps cuts, compared to four that were previously projected. This adjustment reflects a less dovish outlook from the central bank.

美联储在2025年放慢降息步伐的决定也对市场产生了显着影响。 2025 年的中位点图现在仅显示两次 25 bps 的削减，而之前预测的为 4 次。这一调整反映出央行的前景不再那么鸽派。

Despite the smaller rate cut, the Fed's revised economic projections were more hawkish than anticipated by many analysts. However, they largely aligned with the pricing in the rates market leading up to the meeting, as highlighted in our Wall Street/FOMC article earlier this week.

尽管降息幅度较小，但美联储修订后的经济预测比许多分析师的预期更加鹰派。然而，正如我们本周早些时候在华尔街/联邦公开市场委员会的文章中所强调的那样，它们在很大程度上与会议前利率市场的定价一致。

The rates market now anticipates just 32 bps of rate cuts for 2025 (versus 50 bps yesterday), following the Fed's projections for a lower unemployment rate, a higher forecast for gross domestic product (GDP), and core inflation that is still above the central bank's 2% target. The next full rate cut by the Fed is not anticipated until September 2025.

继美联储预测失业率较低、国内生产总值 (GDP) 预测较高以及核心通胀率仍高于中央通胀率之后，利率市场目前预计 2025 年降息幅度仅为 32 个基点（昨天为 50 个基点）银行2%的目标。预计美联储下一次全面降息要到 2025 年 9 月。

Stepping back, this morning's Fed rate cut outcome should not have been too surprising following recent warm US inflation and activity data. Notably, markets have rallied strongly into the Fed meeting, and now appear to be pricing in two rate cuts for 2024 and another two for 2025, before rates are seen to be broadly on hold for the remainder of the year.

退一步来说，在近期美国通胀和活动数据温暖之后，今天上午的美联储降息结果应该不会太令人意外。值得注意的是，市场在美联储会议召开前强劲反弹，目前市场似乎已消化 2024 年两次降息和 2025 年两次降息的预期，而今年剩余时间里利率预计将大体维持不变。

'Inflation has made progress towards the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated. The labor market continues to be very strong, with the unemployment rate remaining low and job gains being robust in recent months.'

“通货膨胀率已朝着委员会 2% 的目标取得进展，但仍处于较高水平。劳动力市场仍然非常强劲，失业率保持在低位，近几个月就业增长强劲。