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加密貨幣新聞文章

聯準會的決定如何影響風險資產

2024/12/19 12:30

今天早上聯邦公開市場委員會 (FOMC) 會議的結果震驚了主要風險資產,包括股票、澳元/美元和比特幣

聯準會的決定如何影響風險資產

The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a smaller rate cut of 25 basis points (bps) on Wednesday, bringing the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The decision, which was largely anticipated by markets, had a significant impact on various risk assets and caused the US dollar and US yields to surge higher.

聯準會 (Fed) 週三宣布小幅降息 25 個基點 (bps),將基準利率調整至 4.25% 至 4.50% 的區間。這項在市場預期中的決定對各類風險資產產生了重大影響,並導緻美元和美國收益率飆升。

The Fed's decision to slow the pace of rate cuts in 2025 also had a notable effect on markets. The median dot plot for 2025 now shows only two 25 bps cuts, compared to four that were previously projected. This adjustment reflects a less dovish outlook from the central bank.

聯準會在2025年放緩降息的決定也對市場產生了顯著影響。 2025 年的中位點圖現在僅顯示兩次 25 bps 的削減,而先前預測的為 4 次。這項調整反映出央行的前景不再那麼鴿派。

Despite the smaller rate cut, the Fed's revised economic projections were more hawkish than anticipated by many analysts. However, they largely aligned with the pricing in the rates market leading up to the meeting, as highlighted in our Wall Street/FOMC article earlier this week.

儘管降息幅度較小,但聯準會修訂後的經濟預測比許多分析師的預期更加鷹派。然而,正如我們本週稍早在華爾街/聯邦公開市場委員會的文章中所強調的那樣,它們在很大程度上與會議前利率市場的定價一致。

The rates market now anticipates just 32 bps of rate cuts for 2025 (versus 50 bps yesterday), following the Fed's projections for a lower unemployment rate, a higher forecast for gross domestic product (GDP), and core inflation that is still above the central bank's 2% target. The next full rate cut by the Fed is not anticipated until September 2025.

繼聯準會預測失業率較低、國內生產毛額 (GDP) 預測較高以及核心通膨率仍高於中央通膨率之後,利率市場目前預計 2025 年降息幅度僅為 32 個基點(昨天為 50 個基點)銀行2%的目標。預計聯準會下一次全面降息要到 2025 年 9 月。

Stepping back, this morning's Fed rate cut outcome should not have been too surprising following recent warm US inflation and activity data. Notably, markets have rallied strongly into the Fed meeting, and now appear to be pricing in two rate cuts for 2024 and another two for 2025, before rates are seen to be broadly on hold for the remainder of the year.

退一步來說,在近期美國通膨和活動數據溫暖之後,今天早上的聯準會降息結果應該不會太令人意外。值得注意的是,市場在聯準會會議召開前強勁反彈,目前市場似乎已消化 2024 年兩次降息和 2025 年兩次降息的預期,而今年剩餘時間裡利率預計將大體維持不變。

'Inflation has made progress towards the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated. The labor market continues to be very strong, with the unemployment rate remaining low and job gains being robust in recent months.'

「通貨膨脹率已朝著委員會 2% 的目標取得進展,但仍處於較高水平。勞動市場仍然非常強勁,失業率維持在低位,近幾個月就業成長強勁。

新聞來源:www.ig.com

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