XRP（XRP）价格预测：SEC诉讼后的加密资产会发生什么？

Bitwise首席投资官（CIO）Matt Hougan在接受Paul Barron Network的采访中表达了他对围绕XRP的长期监管战斗的看法

A crypto asset that has been largely written off by a part of the market and largely ignored by the broader market could be in line for a sharp market correction if the U.S. legal uncertainties are cleared, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan.

根据Bitwise首席投资官Matt Hougan的说法，如果美国法律不确定性被清除，则很大程度上被市场的一部分被忽略的加密资产，并且在很大程度上被更广泛的市场忽略了。

In an interview with the Paul Barron Network, Hougan offered his take on the regulatory battle that has unfolded over several years, particularly with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Since 2020, the SEC has been engaged in a lawsuit against Ripple Labs, the company behind XRP, alleging the company conducted an unregistered securities offering.

在接受保罗·巴伦（Paul Barron）网络的采访中，霍根（Hougan）发表了他对几年来进行的监管战，尤其是美国证券交易委员会（SEC）。自2020年以来，SEC一直针对XRP背后的Ripple Labs提起诉讼，指控该公司进行了未注册的证券产品。

The lawsuit has had a significant impact on XRP, leading to its delisting from several major exchanges in the past.

该诉讼对XRP产生了重大影响，从而导致其过去的几次主要交易所脱颖而出。

The lawsuit is now set to conclude by April 16, according to Barron, and market participants are speculating on what will happen next with the token, especially considering its minimal presence in the U.S. crypto ecosystem.

根据巴伦（Barron）的说法，该诉讼现在将于4月16日结束，市场参与者正在猜测令牌接下来将发生的事情，尤其是考虑到其在美国加密生态系统中的最小存在。

One of the key takeaways from Hougan’s analysis is that XRP remains an unknown variable in the broader crypto landscape. Unlike Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), which have seen major adoption and institutional inflows, XRP has remained stagnant due to regulatory overhang.

Hougan分析的关键要点之一是，XRP在更广泛的加密景观中仍然是未知的变量。与比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）不同的是，由于监管悬垂性，XRP的采用和机构流入都不同。

If the lawsuit concludes with clarity that allows for full U.S. adoption, then the true potential of XRP in global finance could be realized.

如果诉讼以清晰的结论，可以全面采用，那么XRP在全球金融中的真正潜力就可以实现。

“The reality is, XRP has been suppressed by litigation for multiple years, and we don’t yet know what it can do on the global stage when it’s freed from those restraints,” Hougan said.

霍根说：“现实情况是，XRP已被诉讼抑制了多年，我们尚不知道它可以在全球舞台上摆脱这些约束时能做什么。”

While Hougan did not make any price predictions, he did note that institutional and retail sentiment could change quickly if XRP gains renewed regulatory approval in the U.S.

虽然Hougan没有做出任何价格预测，但他确实指出，如果XRP获得了美国的批准，机构和零售情绪可能会迅速改变

The discussion also touched upon Japan’s deep integration of XRP, particularly with SBI Holdings spearheading the move into digital banking. As noted in the interview, XRP has now overtaken Ethereum in Japanese investor holdings, showcasing strong institutional confidence.

讨论还涉及日本对XRP的深入整合，尤其是SBI Holdings率先进入数字银行业务。正如采访中指出的那样，XRP现在已经超过了日本投资者持有的以太坊，表现出强烈的机构信心。

Paul Barron noted that Japan’s approach could be a preview of global adoption: “SBI seems to be doing with XRP what Michael Saylor did with Bitcoin—strategically accumulating and positioning it for long-term institutional use.”

保罗·巴伦（Paul Barron）指出，日本的方法可能是对全球采用的预览：“ SBI似乎正在与XRP迈克尔·赛勒（Michael Saylor）对比特币所做的事情 - 在战略上积累并定位它供长期机构使用。”

In response, Hougan agreed, adding that XRP’s role in international remittances and liquidity solutions is often underestimated, and the ongoing legal case has prevented a complete assessment of its utility-driven demand.

作为回应，Hougan表示同意，并补充说，XRP在国际汇款和流动性解决方案中的作用经常被低估，并且持续的法律案件阻止了对其公用事业驱动的需求的完整评估。

Another major topic was the possibility of an spot XRP exchange-traded fund. While Hougan did not disclose details of Bitwise’s ETF filing and its progress with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), he expressed the firm’s commitment.

另一个主要主题是XRP交易所交易基金的可能性。尽管Hougan没有透露Bitwise的ETF申请及其在美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的进度的详细信息，但他表达了该公司的承诺。

“We don’t file for ETPs for fun. We file for them because we think they can launch, and we think there is a significant audience, and we think it’s an important asset,” Hougan said.

“我们没有为ETP申请娱乐。我们为他们申请，因为我们认为他们可以推出，我们认为有重要的受众，我们认为这是一项重要的资产。”

Although some analysts believe that XRP’s legal troubles have already been priced into the market, Hougan’s comments suggest that the potential upside is largely disregarded by the broader market.

尽管一些分析师认为XRP的法律麻烦已经被定价进入市场，但Hougan的评论表明，潜在的上行空间在很大程度上被更广泛的市场所忽视。

If the SEC case concludes favorably, leading to the re-listing of XRP on major U.S. exchanges, new institutional flows, and expanded adoption in banking systems, then the market could quickly begin to re-price the asset.

如果SEC案件的结论非常有利，导致XRP在美国主要交易所，新机构流动以及在银行系统中的扩大采用中重新列入，那么市场可能会迅速开始重新定价该资产。

“There’s no guarantee XRP will be enormously successful, but there’s equally no guarantee that it won’t be,” Hougan concluded.

霍根总结说：“不能保证XRP会取得巨大成功，但同样不能保证它不会。”

At press time, XRP traded at $2.12.

发稿时，XRP的交易价格为2.12美元。