2月峰的欣喜已蒸发。

比特币兑现了109,000美元后，现在正在波动约82,000美元，揭示了一个比看起来更复杂的现实。

The euphoria of the February peaks has evaporated. Bitcoin, after having brushed against 109,000 dollars, is now fluctuating around 82,000 dollars, revealing a reality more complex than it seems.

2月峰的欣喜已蒸发。比特币兑现了109,000美元后，现在正在波动约82,000美元，揭示了一个比看起来更复杂的现实。

According to the latest report from Glassnode, authored by researchers Cryptovizart and Ukuria OC, the market is facing an unprecedented liquidity crisis, coupled with a growing divide among investors. A contrasting picture that raises questions: is Bitcoin at a critical turning point or simply in a phase of consolidation?

根据研究人员Cryptovizart和Ukuria OC撰写的GlassNode的最新报告，该市场正面临着前所未有的流动性危机，再加上投资者之间的分歧越来越大。引起问题的对比图片：比特币是在关键的转折点还是在整合阶段？

Bitcoin Facing the Liquidity Famine

面对流动性饥荒的比特币

Bitcoin is going through a period of financial drought. The Realized Cap, a key indicator measuring the capital actually invested, is only increasing by 0.67% per month.

比特币正在经历一段经济干旱。实现的上限是测量实际投资的主要指标，每月仅增加0.67％。

This stagnation betrays the absence of fresh capital flows, essential for supporting prices. On-chain trades and derivative markets reflect this asphyxiation: inflows onto platforms have dropped by 54% since the end of February, while the “Hot Supply” — those bitcoins held for less than a week, a symbol of frantic speculation — has halved to barely 2.8% of the circulating supply.

这种停滞背叛了缺乏新的资本流量，这对于支撑价格至关重要。自2月底以来，链上的交易和衍生品市场反映了这种窒息：流入平台上的流入下降了54％，而“热供应”（那些持有不到一周的比特币是疯狂猜测的象征），已经减少了供应供应的2.8％。

The open interest on futures contracts has decreased by 35%, a sign of a retreat from hedging and arbitrage strategies.

期货合约的开放利息减少了35％，这是对冲和套利策略撤退的标志。

Institutions, in particular, are unwinding their “cash and carry” positions — combining spot ETFs and shorts on futures contracts — causing massive closures (378 million dollars on the CME) and outflows from ETFs. “The unwinding of these trades intensifies the pressure on prices,” emphasizes Glassnode.

尤其是机构正在放松其“现金和携带”职位 - 将ETF和期货合约上的短裤结合在一起 - 导致大规模关闭（CME上的3.78亿美元）和ETF的外流。玻璃节强调：“这些交易的放松加剧了价格的压力。”

The options tell the same story: put premiums are rising, while the Delta Skew (25) confirms that bearish protections are favored by investors. Institutional traders, in particular, seem to be barricading themselves, anticipating persistent volatility.

这些选项讲述了相同的故事：PUT保费正在上升，而三角洲（25）则证实了看跌的保护措施受到投资者的青睐。尤其是机构交易者似乎正在自我阻碍，预计持续的波动。

Investors: A Schism Between the Shipwrecked and the Survivors

投资者：沉船与幸存者之间的分裂

The current correction in Bitcoin is widening a gap between two categories of actors. Short-term holders (STH), caught in the turmoil, see their unrealized losses reaching cyclical record levels: 7 billion dollars since February.

当前比特币的校正正在扩大两类参与者之间的差距。陷入动荡的短期持有人（STH），他们的未实现的损失达到了周期性的记录水平：自2月以来70亿美元。

An alarming figure, but still lower than that of the capitulations of 2021-2022. “These investors are under intense psychological pressure, oscillating between hope and panic,” analyze Cryptovizart and Ukuria OC.

一个令人震惊的数字，但仍然低于2021 - 2022年投降的数字。 Cryptovizart和Ukuria OC分析：“这些投资者面临着巨大的心理压力，在希望和恐慌之间振荡。”

On the opposite side, long-term holders (LTH) are biding their time. Their selling activity is slowing, even if some have seized the opportunity to secure profits around 80,000 dollars.

在另一侧，长期持有人（LTH）正在筹集时间。他们的销售活动正在放缓，即使有些人抓住了获得80,000美元左右利润的机会。

“Their partial withdrawal from the market reflects a defensive strategy, but not a flight,” the report specifies. With 40% of Bitcoin’s total wealth in their hands, LTH are sitting on a sword of Damocles: a massive sell-off could flood the market.

该报告指定：“他们从市场上的部分退出反映了一种防御策略，但不反映飞行。” lth掌握了比特币全部财富的40％，坐在一把damocles上：大量卖出可能会淹没市场。

This duality sketches a paradoxical landscape. On one side, STH, mired in historical losses, embody the fragility of the retail market. On the other side, LTH, silent guardians, seem to be returning to a logic of patient accumulation. “Their relative inertia acts as a stabilizer, limiting panic sales.”

这种双重性绘制了一个自相矛盾的景观。一方面，陷入历史损失的STH体现了零售市场的脆弱性。另一方面，LTH，无声的监护人似乎正在恢复患者积累的逻辑。 “他们的相对惯性是稳定器，限制了恐慌销售。”

Bitcoin is navigating in a gray area, torn between institutional caution and the distress of small holders. The stagnant liquidity and high volatility could persist as long as incoming flows remain timid. However, there remains a glimmer of hope: if institutional ETFs manage to offset outflows, the network could regain balance.

比特币正在灰色区域中航行，在机构谨慎和小持有人的困扰之间撕裂。只要传入的流动保持胆怯，就可以持续停滞的流动性和高波动率。但是，仍然有一线希望：如果机构ETF设法抵消了流出，则网络可以恢复平衡。