2月峰的欣喜已蒸發。

比特幣兌現了109,000美元後，現在正在波動約82,000美元，揭示了一個比看起來更複雜的現實。

The euphoria of the February peaks has evaporated. Bitcoin, after having brushed against 109,000 dollars, is now fluctuating around 82,000 dollars, revealing a reality more complex than it seems.

2月峰的欣喜已蒸發。比特幣兌現了109,000美元後，現在正在波動約82,000美元，揭示了一個比看起來更複雜的現實。

According to the latest report from Glassnode, authored by researchers Cryptovizart and Ukuria OC, the market is facing an unprecedented liquidity crisis, coupled with a growing divide among investors. A contrasting picture that raises questions: is Bitcoin at a critical turning point or simply in a phase of consolidation?

根據研究人員Cryptovizart和Ukuria OC撰寫的GlassNode的最新報告，該市場正面臨著前所未有的流動性危機，再加上投資者之間的分歧越來越大。引起問題的對比圖片：比特幣是在關鍵的轉折點還是在整合階段？

Bitcoin Facing the Liquidity Famine

面對流動性飢荒的比特幣

Bitcoin is going through a period of financial drought. The Realized Cap, a key indicator measuring the capital actually invested, is only increasing by 0.67% per month.

比特幣正在經歷一段經濟乾旱。實現的上限是測量實際投資的主要指標，每月僅增加0.67％。

This stagnation betrays the absence of fresh capital flows, essential for supporting prices. On-chain trades and derivative markets reflect this asphyxiation: inflows onto platforms have dropped by 54% since the end of February, while the “Hot Supply” — those bitcoins held for less than a week, a symbol of frantic speculation — has halved to barely 2.8% of the circulating supply.

這種停滯背叛了缺乏新的資本流量，這對於支撐價格至關重要。自2月底以來，鏈上的交易和衍生品市場反映了這種窒息：流入平台上的流入下降了54％，而“熱供應”（那些持有不到一周的比特幣是瘋狂猜測的象徵），已經減少了供應供應的2.8％。

The open interest on futures contracts has decreased by 35%, a sign of a retreat from hedging and arbitrage strategies.

期貨合約的開放利息減少了35％，這是對沖和套利策略撤退的標誌。

Institutions, in particular, are unwinding their “cash and carry” positions — combining spot ETFs and shorts on futures contracts — causing massive closures (378 million dollars on the CME) and outflows from ETFs. “The unwinding of these trades intensifies the pressure on prices,” emphasizes Glassnode.

尤其是機構正在放鬆其“現金和攜帶”職位 - 將ETF和期貨合約上的短褲結合在一起 - 導致大規模關閉（CME上的3.78億美元）和ETF的外流。玻璃節強調：“這些交易的放鬆加劇了價格的壓力。”

The options tell the same story: put premiums are rising, while the Delta Skew (25) confirms that bearish protections are favored by investors. Institutional traders, in particular, seem to be barricading themselves, anticipating persistent volatility.

這些選項講述了相同的故事：PUT保費正在上升，而三角洲（25）則證實了看跌的保護措施受到投資者的青睞。尤其是機構交易者似乎正在自我阻礙，預計持續的波動。

Investors: A Schism Between the Shipwrecked and the Survivors

投資者：沉船與倖存者之間的分裂

The current correction in Bitcoin is widening a gap between two categories of actors. Short-term holders (STH), caught in the turmoil, see their unrealized losses reaching cyclical record levels: 7 billion dollars since February.

當前比特幣的校正正在擴大兩類參與者之間的差距。陷入動蕩的短期持有人（STH），他們的未實現的損失達到了周期性的記錄水平：自2月以來70億美元。

An alarming figure, but still lower than that of the capitulations of 2021-2022. “These investors are under intense psychological pressure, oscillating between hope and panic,” analyze Cryptovizart and Ukuria OC.

一個令人震驚的數字，但仍然低於2021 - 2022年投降的數字。 Cryptovizart和Ukuria OC分析：“這些投資者面臨著巨大的心理壓力，在希望和恐慌之間振盪。”

On the opposite side, long-term holders (LTH) are biding their time. Their selling activity is slowing, even if some have seized the opportunity to secure profits around 80,000 dollars.

在另一側，長期持有人（LTH）正在籌集時間。他們的銷售活動正在放緩，即使有些人抓住了獲得80,000美元左右利潤的機會。

“Their partial withdrawal from the market reflects a defensive strategy, but not a flight,” the report specifies. With 40% of Bitcoin’s total wealth in their hands, LTH are sitting on a sword of Damocles: a massive sell-off could flood the market.

該報告指定：“他們從市場上的部分退出反映了一種防禦策略，但不反映飛行。” lth掌握了比特幣全部財富的40％，坐在一把damocles上：大量賣出可能會淹沒市場。

This duality sketches a paradoxical landscape. On one side, STH, mired in historical losses, embody the fragility of the retail market. On the other side, LTH, silent guardians, seem to be returning to a logic of patient accumulation. “Their relative inertia acts as a stabilizer, limiting panic sales.”

這種雙重性繪製了一個自相矛盾的景觀。一方面，陷入歷史損失的STH體現了零售市場的脆弱性。另一方面，LTH，無聲的監護人似乎正在恢復患者積累的邏輯。 “他們的相對慣性是穩定器，限制了恐慌銷售。”

Bitcoin is navigating in a gray area, torn between institutional caution and the distress of small holders. The stagnant liquidity and high volatility could persist as long as incoming flows remain timid. However, there remains a glimmer of hope: if institutional ETFs manage to offset outflows, the network could regain balance.

比特幣正在灰色區域中航行，在機構謹慎和小持有人的困擾之間撕裂。只要傳入的流動保持膽怯，就可以持續停滯的流動性和高波動率。但是，仍然有一線希望：如果機構ETF設法抵消了流出，則網絡可以恢復平衡。