以太坊中年危机：为什么ETH会跌到人人鄙视的地步？

近日，Vitalik 再次被社区推到了批评舞台的中心。这并不是以太坊第一次遭遇这样的危机。

Recently, Trump's choice to issue his own meme coin TRUMP on the Solana chain has caused exaggerated increases in meme coins, once again making many people who firmly grasped the opportunity become famous in one battle and retire after success. The exaggerated wealth effect has caused many investors who missed out to sigh, and Solana and meme coins have once again become the focus of public opinion. FOMO sentiment even caused SOL to be in short supply, causing Binance to suspend withdrawals. While TRUMP is advancing rapidly, the price of SOL has soared to $295, setting a record high. The market is turbulent, Bitcoin and SOL are advancing rapidly, but Ethereum, which ranks second in market value, has "never risen for ten thousand years". What happened to ETH? Why has it fallen to such a point where everyone is scorned?

近期，特朗普选择在Solana链上发行自己的米姆币TRUMP，引发了米姆币的夸张上涨，再次让不少牢牢抓住机会的人一战成名、功成身退。夸大的财富效应让很多错失的投资者唏嘘不已，Solana和meme币再次成为舆论焦点。 FOMO 情绪甚至导致 SOL 供不应求，导致币安暂停提币。在TRUMP快速推进的同时，SOL的价格却飙升至295美元，创下历史新高。市场动荡，比特币、SOL突飞猛进，但市值排名第二的以太坊却“万年不曾上涨”。以太币怎么了？怎么就沦落到了人人鄙视的地步了呢？

Once upon a time, Ethereum's grand vision of a global computing layer attracted the favor of countless tech upstarts, financial giants, and industry leaders, but now it seems to have lost its glory. Bitcoin's digital gold status is as solid as a mountain, with spot ETFs approved, MicroStrategy's crazy purchases, and increasing acceptance by government agencies. Even though its market value has been increasing, its increase from the bottom of $15,000 has already achieved a return of more than 6 times. BTC is still the favorite of old money such as family wealth.

曾几何时，以太坊全球计算层的宏伟愿景吸引了无数科技新贵、金融巨头、行业领袖的青睐，但现在似乎失去了昔日的辉煌。比特币的数字黄金地位稳如泰山，现货ETF获批、MicroStrategy疯狂买入、政府机构认可度不断提高。尽管其市值一直在增长，但从底部15000美元的涨幅已经实现了6倍以上的回报。 BTC仍然是家族财富等老钱的最爱。

On the other hand, although Ethereum competes with Bitcoin in a different way, it has remained around US$3,000 since March last year. Its performance is really disappointing in the much-anticipated altcoin season. As of January 16, the total net inflow of Ethereum spot ETF reached 2.66 billion US dollars, but this net inflow seems to have little effect on supporting and rising the price of the currency. The price of the currency is the result of the consensus in the financial market. The long-term fluctuations have consumed a lot of faith emotions and market confidence.

另一方面，以太坊虽然以不同的方式与比特币竞争，但自去年3月以来一直保持在3000美元左右。在万众期待的山寨币季节，其表现确实令人失望。截至1月16日，以太坊现货ETF净流入总额达到26.6亿美元，但这一净流入似乎对币价支撑和上涨作用不大。货币的价格是金融市场共识的结果。长期的波动消耗了大量的信心情绪和市场信心。

On the other hand, Solana has attracted many new users with its low gas fees and the wave of meme-driven wealth creation. According to the latest data on Circle’s official website, the issuance of USDC on its Ethereum mainnet has reached 31.53 billion US dollars, while the issuance of public chain upstart Solana has soared to 7.72 billion US dollars.

另一方面，Solana 凭借低廉的 Gas 费用和 meme 驱动的财富创造浪潮吸引了许多新用户。据Circle官网最新数据显示，其以太坊主网上USDC的发行量已达315.3亿美元，而公链新贵Solana的发行量则飙升至77.2亿美元。

As early as the last cycle, the debate over L2 and L1 had already begun. In this cycle, as the "Four Heavenly Kings" L2 have been launched one after another, the debate over which one is better has been endless. However, at present, the voices leaning towards L1 have been generally recognized by the market.

早在上个周期，关于L2和L1的争论就已经开始了。在这个周期中，随着“四大天王”L2的相继推出，关于哪一个更好的争论一直不绝于耳。不过，目前，偏向L1的声音已经得到了市场的普遍认可。

As the L2 chain that focuses on capacity expansion, the cross-chain bridging of funds not only faces considerable problems in terms of security and timeliness, but also greatly reduces the user experience. Although each chain has its own advantages in technology, they all have the same goal, and users do not have a very obvious perception of the difference. Even some project parties have repeatedly migrated between L2 chains, further splitting liquidity and user experience. In addition, each L2 has launched its own token system, which has not really fed back to Ethereum, which has also weakened the appeal of ETH. Taking Base as an example, most of the network fees last year became Coinbase's profits, of which very little was given to the Ethereum mainnet, and most of it was kept by Coinbase for its own use. If calculated on an annualized basis, Coinbase's revenue from Base is close to $100 million.

作为注重扩容的L2链，资金的跨链桥接不仅在安全性和时效性方面面临着相当大的问题，而且也大大降低了用户体验。虽然各链在技术上各有优势，但目标都是一致的，用户并没有非常明显的差异感知。甚至有的项目方多次在L2链之间迁移，进一步割裂了流动性和用户体验。另外，各个L2都推出了自己的代币系统，并没有真正反馈给以太坊，这也削弱了ETH的吸引力。以Base为例，去年大部分网络费用都变成了Coinbase的利润，其中给以太坊主网的很少，大部分都被Coinbase留作自用。如果按年化计算，Coinbase 来自 Base 的收入接近 1 亿美元。

Kain, the founder of Synthetix and Infinex, said that if I were to run EF (Ethereum Foundation), I would definitely put pressure on L2 to use the sorter income to destroy ETH.

Synthetix 和 Infinex 的创始人 Kain 表示，如果我来运营 EF（以太坊基金会），我肯定会给 L2 施压，要求其用分拣机收入销毁 ETH。

Since the launch of each L2, its token has performed mediocrely. Although its total TVL has exceeded US$54 billion, there has been no particularly significant growth since March last year. Today, L2 technology is also beginning to encounter bottlenecks. The L2 chain continues to grow, and multiple L2s compete for limited Blob storage, causing fees to soar and user costs to increase. Even if the number of blobs is increased to 6 through Pectra upgrades, the problem can only be temporarily alleviated and cannot be fundamentally solved. Solutions include short-term Pectra upgrades, mid-term PeerDAS implementations, and long-term DA expansions.

自各L2推出以来，其代币表现平平。尽管其总TVL已超过540亿美元，但自去年3月以来并没有特别显着的增长。如今，L2技术也开始遇到瓶颈。 L2链不断增长，多个L2争夺有限的Blob存储，导致费用飙升和用户成本增加。即使通过Pectra升级将blob数量增加到6个，也只能暂时缓解问题，无法从根本上解决问题。解决方案包括短期 Pectra 升级、中期 PeerDAS 实施和长期 DA 扩展。

In this regard, Cruve founder Michael Egorov said that it is time to abandon the L2-centric roadmap and focus on expanding L1. In addition, he bluntly stated that L2 is not a moat, but a band-aid.

对此，Cruve创始人Michael Egorov表示，是时候放弃以L2为中心的路线图，专注于拓展L1了。此外，他直言L2不是护城河，而是创可贴。

The Ethereum mainnet TPS can now reach up to about 90 transactions per second, but this is far from enough. As a financial settlement layer, Ethereum now urgently needs to expand its capacity to meet the needs of

以太坊主网TPS现在可以达到每秒约90笔交易，但这还远远不够。以太坊作为金融结算层，现在迫切需要扩展其容量，以满足人们的需求。