以太坊中年危機：為什麼ETH會跌到人人鄙視的地步？

近日，Vitalik 再次被社區推到了批評舞台的中心。這並不是以太坊第一次遭遇這樣的危機。

Recently, Trump's choice to issue his own meme coin TRUMP on the Solana chain has caused exaggerated increases in meme coins, once again making many people who firmly grasped the opportunity become famous in one battle and retire after success. The exaggerated wealth effect has caused many investors who missed out to sigh, and Solana and meme coins have once again become the focus of public opinion. FOMO sentiment even caused SOL to be in short supply, causing Binance to suspend withdrawals. While TRUMP is advancing rapidly, the price of SOL has soared to $295, setting a record high. The market is turbulent, Bitcoin and SOL are advancing rapidly, but Ethereum, which ranks second in market value, has "never risen for ten thousand years". What happened to ETH? Why has it fallen to such a point where everyone is scorned?

近期，川普選擇在Solana鏈上發行自己的米姆幣TRUMP，引發了米姆幣的誇張上漲，再次讓不少牢牢抓住機會的人一戰成名、功成身退。誇大的財富效應讓許多錯失的投資者唏噓不已，Solana和meme幣再次成為輿論焦點。 FOMO 情緒甚至導致 SOL 供不應求，導致幣安暫停提幣。在TRUMP快速推進的同時，SOL的價格卻飆升至295美元，創下歷史新高。市場動盪，比特幣、SOL突飛猛進，但市值排名第二的以太坊卻「萬年不曾上漲」。以太幣怎麼了？怎麼就淪落到了人人鄙視的地步了呢？

Once upon a time, Ethereum's grand vision of a global computing layer attracted the favor of countless tech upstarts, financial giants, and industry leaders, but now it seems to have lost its glory. Bitcoin's digital gold status is as solid as a mountain, with spot ETFs approved, MicroStrategy's crazy purchases, and increasing acceptance by government agencies. Even though its market value has been increasing, its increase from the bottom of $15,000 has already achieved a return of more than 6 times. BTC is still the favorite of old money such as family wealth.

曾幾何時，以太坊全球計算層的宏偉願景吸引了無數科技新貴、金融巨頭、行業領導者的青睞，但現在似乎失去了昔日的輝煌。比特幣的數位黃金地位穩如泰山，現貨ETF核准、MicroStrategy瘋狂買入、政府機構認可度不斷提高。儘管其市值一直在增長，但從底部15,000美元的漲幅已經實現了6倍以上的回報。 BTC仍然是家族財富等老錢的最愛。

On the other hand, although Ethereum competes with Bitcoin in a different way, it has remained around US$3,000 since March last year. Its performance is really disappointing in the much-anticipated altcoin season. As of January 16, the total net inflow of Ethereum spot ETF reached 2.66 billion US dollars, but this net inflow seems to have little effect on supporting and rising the price of the currency. The price of the currency is the result of the consensus in the financial market. The long-term fluctuations have consumed a lot of faith emotions and market confidence.

另一方面，以太坊雖然以不同的方式與比特幣競爭，但自去年3月以來一直保持在3000美元左右。在萬眾期待的山寨幣季節，其表現確實令人失望。截至1月16日，以太幣現貨ETF淨流入總額達26.6億美元，但這筆淨流入似乎對幣價支撐和上漲效果不大。貨幣的價格是金融市場共識的結果。長期的波動消耗了大量的信心情緒和市場信心。

On the other hand, Solana has attracted many new users with its low gas fees and the wave of meme-driven wealth creation. According to the latest data on Circle’s official website, the issuance of USDC on its Ethereum mainnet has reached 31.53 billion US dollars, while the issuance of public chain upstart Solana has soared to 7.72 billion US dollars.

另一方面，Solana 憑藉低廉的 Gas 費用和 meme 驅動的財富創造浪潮吸引了許多新用戶。根據Circle官網最新數據顯示，其以太坊主網上USDC的發行量已達315.3億美元，而公鏈新貴Solana的發行量則飆升至77.2億美元。

As early as the last cycle, the debate over L2 and L1 had already begun. In this cycle, as the "Four Heavenly Kings" L2 have been launched one after another, the debate over which one is better has been endless. However, at present, the voices leaning towards L1 have been generally recognized by the market.

早在上個週期，關於L2和L1的爭論就已經開始了。在這個週期中，隨著「四大天王」L2的相繼推出，關於哪一個更好的爭論一直不絕於耳。不過，目前，偏向L1的聲音已經得到了市場的普遍認可。

As the L2 chain that focuses on capacity expansion, the cross-chain bridging of funds not only faces considerable problems in terms of security and timeliness, but also greatly reduces the user experience. Although each chain has its own advantages in technology, they all have the same goal, and users do not have a very obvious perception of the difference. Even some project parties have repeatedly migrated between L2 chains, further splitting liquidity and user experience. In addition, each L2 has launched its own token system, which has not really fed back to Ethereum, which has also weakened the appeal of ETH. Taking Base as an example, most of the network fees last year became Coinbase's profits, of which very little was given to the Ethereum mainnet, and most of it was kept by Coinbase for its own use. If calculated on an annualized basis, Coinbase's revenue from Base is close to $100 million.

作為一個注重擴容的L2鏈，資金的跨鏈橋接不僅在安全性和時效性方面面臨相當大的問題，也大大降低了使用者體驗。雖然各鏈在技術上各有優勢，但目標都是一致的，使用者並沒有非常明顯的差異感知。甚至有的專案方多次在L2鏈之間遷移，進一步割裂了流動性和使用者體驗。另外，各L2都推出了自己的代幣系統，並沒有真正回饋給以太坊，也削弱了ETH的吸引力。以Base為例，去年大部分網路費用都變成了Coinbase的利潤，給以太坊主網的很少，大部分都被Coinbase留作自用。如果以年化計算，Coinbase 來自 Base 的收入接近 1 億美元。

Kain, the founder of Synthetix and Infinex, said that if I were to run EF (Ethereum Foundation), I would definitely put pressure on L2 to use the sorter income to destroy ETH.

Synthetix 和 Infinex 的創辦人 Kain 表示，如果我來經營 EF（以太坊基金會），我肯定會給 L2 施壓，要求其用分類機收入銷毀 ETH。

Since the launch of each L2, its token has performed mediocrely. Although its total TVL has exceeded US$54 billion, there has been no particularly significant growth since March last year. Today, L2 technology is also beginning to encounter bottlenecks. The L2 chain continues to grow, and multiple L2s compete for limited Blob storage, causing fees to soar and user costs to increase. Even if the number of blobs is increased to 6 through Pectra upgrades, the problem can only be temporarily alleviated and cannot be fundamentally solved. Solutions include short-term Pectra upgrades, mid-term PeerDAS implementations, and long-term DA expansions.

自各L2推出以來，其代幣表現平平。儘管其總TVL已超過540億美元，但自去年3月以來並沒有特別顯著的成長。如今，L2技術也開始遇到瓶頸。 L2鏈不斷增長，多個L2爭奪有限的Blob存儲，導致費用飆升和用戶成本增加。即使透過Pectra升級將blob數量增加到6個，也只能暫時緩解問題，無法從根本解決問題。解決方案包括短期 Pectra 升級、中期 PeerDAS 實施和長期 DA 擴展。

In this regard, Cruve founder Michael Egorov said that it is time to abandon the L2-centric roadmap and focus on expanding L1. In addition, he bluntly stated that L2 is not a moat, but a band-aid.

對此，Cruve創辦人Michael Egorov表示，是時候放棄以L2為中心的路線圖，專注於拓展L1了。此外，他直言L2不是護城河，而是創可貼。

The Ethereum mainnet TPS can now reach up to about 90 transactions per second, but this is far from enough. As a financial settlement layer, Ethereum now urgently needs to expand its capacity to meet the needs of

以太坊主網TPS現在可以達到每秒約90筆交易，但這還遠遠不夠。以太坊作為金融結算層，現在迫切需要擴展其容量，以滿足人們的需求。