以太坊 Layer 2 市场在激烈竞争中有望突破万亿美元

VanEck 预计，到 2030 年，以太坊 Layer 2 市场估值将达到 1 万亿美元。然而，激烈的竞争限制了大多数 Layer 2 代币的长期价值前景。

Ethereum Layer 2 Market Set to Soar, Amidst Intense Competition

以太坊 Layer 2 市场将在激烈的竞争中飙升

New York, NY - A groundbreaking report from investment firm VanEck has projected a staggering valuation of at least $1 trillion for the Ethereum Layer 2 (L2) market by the end of the decade. This bullish forecast stems from the anticipated surge in transaction volumes and revenue streams driven by the expansion of smart contract applications within the Ethereum ecosystem.

纽约州纽约 - 投资公司 VanEck 的一份开创性报告预计，到本世纪末，以太坊第 2 层 (L2) 市场的估值将达到至少 1 万亿美元。这一乐观预测源于以太坊生态系统内智能合约应用程序扩展所推动的交易量和收入流的预期激增。

VanEck's $1 trillion valuation target is based on a comprehensive analysis of future cash flows, assuming a conservative market share of 60% for L2 solutions. The firm's analysts utilized a free cash flow multiple of 25 to arrive at this estimate, factoring in both transaction revenues and maximal extractable value (MEV) from the Layer 2 networks' anticipated total addressable market.

VanEck 的 1 万亿美元估值目标是基于对未来现金流的综合分析，假设 L2 解决方案保守的市场份额为 60%。该公司的分析师使用 25 倍的自由现金流得出这一估计，同时考虑了交易收入和第 2 层网络预期总可寻址市场的最大可提取价值 (MEV)。

However, despite this optimistic projection, VanEck remains cautious about the long-term value prospects of individual L2 tokens. The report highlights the intense competition within the L2 space, with the proliferation of new solutions and the absence of significant barriers to entry.

然而，尽管有这种乐观的预测，VanEck 对单个 L2 代币的长期价值前景仍然持谨慎态度。该报告强调了 L2 领域内的激烈竞争、新解决方案的激增以及不存在重大进入壁垒。

"Due to the cutthroat competition among L2s, where network effect is the only moat, we remain generally bearish on the long-term value prospects for the majority of Layer 2 tokens," stated Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research, and Patrick Bush, Senior Investment Analyst, at VanEck.

数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 和 Patrick Bush 表示：“由于 L2 之间的激烈竞争，网络效应是唯一的护城河，我们仍然普遍看跌大多数 Layer 2 代币的长期价值前景。” VanEck 高级投资分析师。

VanEck's analysts predict that a handful of general-purpose L2 solutions will emerge as dominant players in the market. They also anticipate the parallel development of thousands of smaller, use-case-specific rollups tailored to specific applications.

VanEck 的分析师预测，少数通用 L2 解决方案将成为市场的主导者。他们还预计将并行开发数千个针对特定应用程序定制的较小的、特定于用例的汇总。

The report notes that the top seven L2 tokens currently command a substantial fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $40 billion, with numerous additional projects poised for launch in the near future. These new entrants could collectively add another $100 billion in FDV over the next 12 to 18 months.

该报告指出，排名前七的 L2 代币目前的完全摊薄估值 (FDV) 高达 400 亿美元，并且还有许多其他项目准备在不久的将来推出。这些新进入者可能会在未来 12 至 18 个月内总共再增加 1000 亿美元的 FDV。

VanEck's valuation assessment considered a comprehensive set of factors across 46 networks, including transaction pricing, developer and user experiences, trust assumptions, and ecosystem scale.

VanEck 的估值评估考虑了 46 个网络的一系列综合因素，包括交易定价、开发者和用户体验、信任假设和生态系统规模。

Recent innovations such as EIP-4844, implemented in Ethereum's Dencun upgrade, have significantly reduced transaction costs for L2s, particularly benefiting optimistic rollups.

最近在以太坊 Dencun 升级中实施的 EIP-4844 等创新显着降低了 L2 的交易成本，尤其有利于 Optimistic Rollups。

The report also highlights the importance of developer experience, particularly compatibility with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), and user experience, focusing on seamless asset onboarding/offboarding, transaction finality, and integration of familiar tools.

该报告还强调了开发人员体验的重要性，特别是与以太坊虚拟机（EVM）的兼容性和用户体验，重点关注无缝资产加入/退出、交易最终性以及熟悉工具的集成。

VanEck's analysts emphasize the significance of trust assumptions, such as the adoption of decentralized sequencer models to mitigate risks. Arbitrum is currently recognized as the "gold standard" among L2s in terms of safeguarding measures.

VanEck 的分析师强调信任假设的重要性，例如采用去中心化排序器模型来降低风险。 Arbitrum 目前在保障措施方面被公认为 L2 中的“黄金标准”。

Ecosystem size, measured by the total value locked (TVL) on the networks, remains a critical determinant of competitiveness. Arbitrum, Optimism, and Blast stand out as L2s with ecosystems that attract significant user engagement, partly driven by successful token airdrop programs and rollup frameworks like OP Stack and Arbitrum Orbit.

以网络上锁定的总价值（TVL）衡量的生态系统规模仍然是竞争力的关键决定因素。 Arbitrum、Optimism 和 Blast 作为 L2 脱颖而出，其生态系统吸引了大量用户参与，部分原因是成功的代币空投计划和 OP Stack 和 Arbitrum Orbit 等汇总框架。

Despite the bullish valuation forecast, VanEck's analysts caution that L2s are currently driven more by speculation on long-term value accretion rather than current revenue dynamics. They express skepticism about the crypto market's ability to absorb the anticipated influx of new L2 tokens without substantial price discounts.

尽管估值预测乐观，但 VanEck 的分析师警告称，L2 目前更多地是由长期价值增值的投机驱动，而不是当前的收入动态。他们对加密市场在没有大幅价格折扣的情况下吸收预期涌入的新 L2 代币的能力表示怀疑。

Moving forward, the L2 market is likely to witness a dynamic interplay of competition and collaboration. The emergence of innovative solutions, sustained user adoption, and regulatory clarity will shape the competitive landscape and drive the long-term growth of the L2 ecosystem.

展望未来，L2 市场可能会见证竞争与协作的动态相互作用。创新解决方案的出现、持续的用户采用以及监管的明确性将塑造竞争格局并推动 L2 生态系统的长期增长。