以太坊 Layer 2 市場在激烈競爭中有望突破萬億美元

VanEck 預計，到 2030 年，以太坊 Layer 2 市場估值將達到 1 兆美元。然而，激烈的競爭限制了大多數 Layer 2 代幣的長期價值前景。

Ethereum Layer 2 Market Set to Soar, Amidst Intense Competition

以太坊 Layer 2 市場將在激烈的競爭中飆升

New York, NY - A groundbreaking report from investment firm VanEck has projected a staggering valuation of at least $1 trillion for the Ethereum Layer 2 (L2) market by the end of the decade. This bullish forecast stems from the anticipated surge in transaction volumes and revenue streams driven by the expansion of smart contract applications within the Ethereum ecosystem.

紐約州紐約 - 投資公司 VanEck 的一份開創性報告預計，到本世紀末，以太坊第 2 層 (L2) 市場的估值將達到至少 1 兆美元。這項樂觀預測源自於以太坊生態系統內智慧合約應用程式擴充所推動的交易量和收入流的預期激增。

VanEck's $1 trillion valuation target is based on a comprehensive analysis of future cash flows, assuming a conservative market share of 60% for L2 solutions. The firm's analysts utilized a free cash flow multiple of 25 to arrive at this estimate, factoring in both transaction revenues and maximal extractable value (MEV) from the Layer 2 networks' anticipated total addressable market.

VanEck 的 1 兆美元估值目標是基於對未來現金流的綜合分析，假設 L2 解決方案保守的市佔率為 60%。該公司的分析師使用 25 倍的自由現金流得出這一估計，同時考慮了交易收入和第 2 層網路預期總可尋址市場的最大可提取價值 (MEV)。

However, despite this optimistic projection, VanEck remains cautious about the long-term value prospects of individual L2 tokens. The report highlights the intense competition within the L2 space, with the proliferation of new solutions and the absence of significant barriers to entry.

然而，儘管有這種樂觀的預測，VanEck 對單一 L2 代幣的長期價值前景仍然持謹慎態度。該報告強調了 L2 領域內的激烈競爭、新解決方案的激增以及不存在重大進入障礙。

"Due to the cutthroat competition among L2s, where network effect is the only moat, we remain generally bearish on the long-term value prospects for the majority of Layer 2 tokens," stated Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research, and Patrick Bush, Senior Investment Analyst, at VanEck.

數位資產研究主管 Matthew Sigel 和 Patrick Bush 表示：「由於 L2 之間的激烈競爭，網路效應是唯一的護城河，我們仍然普遍看跌大多數 Layer 2 代幣的長期價值前景。」VanEck 高級投資分析師。

VanEck's analysts predict that a handful of general-purpose L2 solutions will emerge as dominant players in the market. They also anticipate the parallel development of thousands of smaller, use-case-specific rollups tailored to specific applications.

VanEck 的分析師預測，少數通用 L2 解決方案將成為市場的主導者。他們還預計將並行開發數千個針對特定應用程式定制的較小的、特定於用例的匯總。

The report notes that the top seven L2 tokens currently command a substantial fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $40 billion, with numerous additional projects poised for launch in the near future. These new entrants could collectively add another $100 billion in FDV over the next 12 to 18 months.

該報告指出，排名前七的 L2 代幣目前的完全稀釋估值 (FDV) 高達 400 億美元，並且還有許多其他項目準備在不久的將來推出。這些新進業者可能會在未來 12 至 18 個月內總共再增加 1,000 億美元的 FDV。

VanEck's valuation assessment considered a comprehensive set of factors across 46 networks, including transaction pricing, developer and user experiences, trust assumptions, and ecosystem scale.

VanEck 的估值評估考慮了 46 個網路的一系列綜合因素，包括交易定價、開發者和使用者體驗、信任假設和生態系統規模。

Recent innovations such as EIP-4844, implemented in Ethereum's Dencun upgrade, have significantly reduced transaction costs for L2s, particularly benefiting optimistic rollups.

最近在以太坊 Dencun 升級中實施的 EIP-4844 等創新顯著降低了 L2 的交易成本，尤其有利於 Optimistic Rollups。

The report also highlights the importance of developer experience, particularly compatibility with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), and user experience, focusing on seamless asset onboarding/offboarding, transaction finality, and integration of familiar tools.

該報告還強調了開發人員體驗的重要性，特別是與以太坊虛擬機（EVM）的兼容性和用戶體驗，重點關注無縫資產加入/退出、交易最終性以及熟悉工具的整合。

VanEck's analysts emphasize the significance of trust assumptions, such as the adoption of decentralized sequencer models to mitigate risks. Arbitrum is currently recognized as the "gold standard" among L2s in terms of safeguarding measures.

VanEck 的分析師強調信任假設的重要性，例如採用去中心化排序器模型來降低風險。 Arbitrum 目前在保障措施方面被公認為 L2 中的「黃金標準」。

Ecosystem size, measured by the total value locked (TVL) on the networks, remains a critical determinant of competitiveness. Arbitrum, Optimism, and Blast stand out as L2s with ecosystems that attract significant user engagement, partly driven by successful token airdrop programs and rollup frameworks like OP Stack and Arbitrum Orbit.

以網路上鎖定的總價值（TVL）衡量的生態系統規模仍然是競爭力的關鍵決定因素。 Arbitrum、Optimism 和 Blast 作為 L2 脫穎而出，其生態系統吸引了大量用戶參與，部分原因是成功的代幣空投計劃和 OP Stack 和 Arbitrum Orbit 等匯總框架。

Despite the bullish valuation forecast, VanEck's analysts caution that L2s are currently driven more by speculation on long-term value accretion rather than current revenue dynamics. They express skepticism about the crypto market's ability to absorb the anticipated influx of new L2 tokens without substantial price discounts.

儘管估值預測樂觀，但 VanEck 的分析師警告稱，L2 目前更多是由長期價值增值的投機驅動，而不是當前的收入動態。他們對加密市場在沒有大幅價格折扣的情況下吸收預期湧入的新 L2 代幣的能力表示懷疑。

Moving forward, the L2 market is likely to witness a dynamic interplay of competition and collaboration. The emergence of innovative solutions, sustained user adoption, and regulatory clarity will shape the competitive landscape and drive the long-term growth of the L2 ecosystem.

展望未來，L2 市場可能會見證競爭與協作的動態互動。創新解決方案的出現、持續的用戶採用以及監管的明確性將塑造競爭格​​局並推動 L2 生態系統的長期成長。