以太坊在市场调整中应对通胀飙升：暂时的波动还是令人担忧的原因？

以太坊网络活动的下降导致 ETH 供应量面临通胀压力，过去 30 天内其流通供应量增加了 4,836 ETH。同一时期与以太坊区块链交互的唯一地址数量下降了 22%，从而导致交易费用降低和 ETH 销毁率降低，证实了这种通胀趋势。尽管存在这些短期阻力，但 ETH 的长期前景仍然看涨，其 50 日均线仍高于 200 日均线，表明其价格趋势持续走强。

Ethereum's Inflationary Woes: A Temporary Dip or a Cause for Concern?

以太坊的通胀困境：暂时下跌还是令人担忧？

Amid the recent market downturn, Ethereum's network activity has taken a hit, leading to a concerning shift in its supply dynamics. Data from Ultrasound.money reveals a surge in the altcoin's issuance of over 4,836 ETH in the past 30 days, with 9,000 ETH added in just the last week. This rise in supply, coupled with the dwindling demand from network users, has resulted in an inflationary environment for ETH.

在最近的市场低迷中，以太坊的网络活动受到了打击，导致其供应动态发生了令人担忧的变化。 Ultrasound.money 的数据显示，过去 30 天内，该山寨币的发行量激增超过 4,836 ETH，仅上周就增加了 9,000 ETH。供应量的增加，加上网络用户需求的减少，导致了 ETH 的通胀环境。

Understanding Inflationary Dynamics in Ethereum

了解以太坊的通货膨胀动态

Inflation in the context of Ethereum refers to the increase in the circulating supply of the coin, which exerts downward pressure on its price. This phenomenon typically occurs when there is a decline in on-chain activity, evidenced by fewer unique addresses interacting with the blockchain and a corresponding fall in transaction count.

以太坊背景下的通货膨胀是指代币流通供应量的增加，这对其价格施加下行压力。这种现象通常发生在链上活动减少时，与区块链交互的唯一地址减少以及交易计数相应下降就证明了这一点。

On-chain metrics from Artemis indicate a significant drop in Ethereum's daily active addresses, with a 22% decline between March 23rd and April 22nd. Consequently, the daily transaction count has also decreased by 15% during this period. This diminished user engagement has led to a reduction in transaction fees, which has further exacerbated the inflationary pressure.

Artemis 的链上指标显示，以太坊的每日活跃地址大幅下降，3 月 23 日至 4 月 22 日期间下降了 22%。因此，在此期间每日交易数量也减少了 15%。用户参与度的下降导致交易费用下降，从而进一步加剧了通胀压力。

Fees and Burn Rate: A Vital Indicator

费用和燃烧率：一个重要指标

Transaction fees on the Ethereum network are a crucial factor in determining the burn rate of its native token, ETH. A low burn rate, resulting from reduced fees, increases the amount of circulating ETH, contributing to its inflationary nature. Data shows that Ethereum's daily fees peaked at $1.3 million on April 12th but have since declined by 8% as of April 21st.

以太坊网络上的交易费用是决定其原生代币 ETH 销毁率的关键因素。由于费用减少而导致的低燃烧率增加了 ETH 的流通量，从而加剧了其通货膨胀的性质。数据显示，以太坊每日费用在 4 月 12 日达到峰值 130 万美元，但截至 4 月 21 日已下降 8%。

Ethereum's Long-Term Prospects: A Bullish Outlook

以太坊的长期前景：看涨前景

Despite the current inflationary pressures, ETH's long-term outlook remains optimistic. The 50-day moving average (MA) has consistently stayed above the 200-day MA since October 2023, forming a bullish golden cross that suggests sustained price appreciation. This indicates that shorter-term price trends have been outperforming longer-term ones, signaling a potential continuation of the bullish rally.

尽管当前存在通胀压力，但 ETH 的长期前景仍然乐观。自 2023 年 10 月以来，50 日移动平均线 (MA) 一直保持在 200 日移动平均线上方，形成看涨的黄金十字，表明价格持续上涨。这表明短期价格趋势优于长期价格趋势，表明看涨反弹可能会持续。

Positive Momentum and Bullish Sentiment

积极的势头和看涨情绪

Readings from Ethereum's Directional Movement Index further support this bullish outlook. The Positive Directional Index (green) has remained above the Negative Directional Index (red) since October 2023, indicating a rise in bullish momentum. This sustained crossover is a positive sign, as traders interpret it as confirmation of an uptrend and a potential for further price increases.

以太坊方向运动指数的读数进一步支持了这一看涨前景。自 2023 年 10 月以来，正向指数（绿色）一直保持在负向指数（红色）之上，表明看涨势头有所增强。这种持续的交叉是一个积极的信号，因为交易者将其解读为上升趋势的确认以及价格进一步上涨的潜力。

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator, which tracks market consolidation phases, has also displayed consistent green upward-facing bars for ETH since November 2023. This suggests that the coin has maintained upward momentum despite recent price setbacks.

自 2023 年 11 月以来，追踪市场整合阶段的挤压动量指标也一直显示 ETH 的绿色向上柱。这表明，尽管最近价格下跌，但该代币仍保持上涨势头。

Profit-Taking and Market Sentiment

获利了结和市场情绪

It is worth noting that Ethereum has experienced increased profit-taking activity since mid-February, which has contributed to a decline in some momentum metrics. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Money Flow Index (MFI) currently stand at 58.77 and 52.01, respectively, indicating a slight reduction in buying pressure due to recent bearish trends.

值得注意的是，自 2 月中旬以来，以太坊的获利了结活动有所增加，这导致了一些动量指标的下降。相对强弱指数（RSI）和资金流量指数（MFI）目前分别为58.77和52.01，表明近期看跌趋势导致的买盘压力略有减轻。

However, the combined analysis of these indicators suggests that ETH is not in extreme overbought or oversold conditions, and the trend remains relatively stable with a bullish bias.

不过，综合这些指标分析表明，ETH并未处于极端超买或超卖的情况，走势仍相对稳定，偏多。

Futures Market Dynamics

期货市场动态

The futures market for ETH has witnessed a decline in open interest since its year-to-date peak of $15 billion on April 9th, with a 33% drop to its current level of $10 billion. This reduction in open interest indicates a decrease in trading activity, as participants close out their positions without opening new ones.

ETH 期货市场的未平仓合约自 4 月 9 日达到年初至今的 150 亿美元峰值以来一直在下降，下降了 33%，至目前的 100 亿美元水平。未平仓合约的减少表明交易活动减少，因为参与者平仓而不开立新仓位。

Negative funding rates for ETH futures on five separate days, most recently on April 22nd, suggest that traders were betting on a decline in the coin's value. However, as of press time, long traders have regained control with a positive funding rate of 0.0023%.

ETH 期货连续五个交易日（最近一次是 4 月 22 日）出现负融资利率，这表明交易者押注该代币的价值会下跌。然而，截至发稿，多头交易者以0.0023%的正资金费率重新夺回控制权。

Conclusion

结论

While Ethereum's supply dynamics have temporarily shifted towards inflation due to decreased network activity, the coin's long-term outlook remains bullish. The 50-day MA crossover, positive momentum readings, and a relatively stable market sentiment suggest that the current trend may continue. However, it is important to monitor market conditions, including changes in supply and demand, as they could influence ETH's price trajectory in the future.

尽管由于网络活动减少，以太坊的供应动态暂时转向通胀，但该货币的长期前景仍然看涨。 50 日均线交叉、积极的动能读数以及相对稳定的市场情绪表明当前趋势可能会持续。然而，监控市场状况（包括供需变化）非常重要，因为它们可能会影响 ETH 未来的价格轨迹。