以太坊在市場調整中應對通膨飆升：暫時的波動還是令人擔憂的原因？

以太坊網路活動的下降導致 ETH 供應量面臨通膨壓力，過去 30 天內其流通供應量增加了 4,836 ETH。同一時期與以太坊區塊鏈互動的唯一地址數量下降了 22%，導致交易費用降低和 ETH 銷毀率降低，證實了這種通膨趨勢。儘管有這些短期阻力，但 ETH 的長期前景仍看漲，其 50 日均線仍高於 200 日均線，顯示其價格趨勢持續走強。

Ethereum's Inflationary Woes: A Temporary Dip or a Cause for Concern?

以太坊的通膨困境：暫時下跌還是令人擔憂？

Amid the recent market downturn, Ethereum's network activity has taken a hit, leading to a concerning shift in its supply dynamics. Data from Ultrasound.money reveals a surge in the altcoin's issuance of over 4,836 ETH in the past 30 days, with 9,000 ETH added in just the last week. This rise in supply, coupled with the dwindling demand from network users, has resulted in an inflationary environment for ETH.

在最近的市場低迷中，以太坊的網路活動受到了打擊，導致其供應動態發生了令人擔憂的變化。 Ultrasound.money 的數據顯示，過去 30 天內，該山寨幣的發行量激增超過 4,836 ETH，光是上週就增加了 9,000 ETH。供應量的增加，加上網路使用者需求的減少，導致了 ETH 的通膨環境。

Understanding Inflationary Dynamics in Ethereum

了解以太坊的通貨膨脹動態

Inflation in the context of Ethereum refers to the increase in the circulating supply of the coin, which exerts downward pressure on its price. This phenomenon typically occurs when there is a decline in on-chain activity, evidenced by fewer unique addresses interacting with the blockchain and a corresponding fall in transaction count.

以太坊背景下的通貨膨脹是指代幣流通供應量的增加，這對其價格施加下行壓力。這種現象通常發生在鏈上活動減少時，與區塊鏈互動的唯一位址減少以及交易計數相應下降就證明了這一點。

On-chain metrics from Artemis indicate a significant drop in Ethereum's daily active addresses, with a 22% decline between March 23rd and April 22nd. Consequently, the daily transaction count has also decreased by 15% during this period. This diminished user engagement has led to a reduction in transaction fees, which has further exacerbated the inflationary pressure.

Artemis 的鏈上指標顯示，以太坊的每日活躍地址大幅下降，3 月 23 日至 4 月 22 日下降了 22%。因此，在此期間每日交易數量也減少了 15%。用戶參與度的下降導致交易費用下降，進一步加劇了通膨壓力。

Fees and Burn Rate: A Vital Indicator

費用和燃燒率：一個重要指標

Transaction fees on the Ethereum network are a crucial factor in determining the burn rate of its native token, ETH. A low burn rate, resulting from reduced fees, increases the amount of circulating ETH, contributing to its inflationary nature. Data shows that Ethereum's daily fees peaked at $1.3 million on April 12th but have since declined by 8% as of April 21st.

以太坊網路上的交易費用是決定其原生代幣 ETH 銷毀率的關鍵因素。由於費用減少而導致的低燃燒率增加了 ETH 的流通量，從而加劇了其通貨膨脹的性質。數據顯示，以太坊每日費用在 4 月 12 日達到高峰 130 萬美元，但截至 4 月 21 日下降 8%。

Ethereum's Long-Term Prospects: A Bullish Outlook

以太坊的長期前景：看漲前景

Despite the current inflationary pressures, ETH's long-term outlook remains optimistic. The 50-day moving average (MA) has consistently stayed above the 200-day MA since October 2023, forming a bullish golden cross that suggests sustained price appreciation. This indicates that shorter-term price trends have been outperforming longer-term ones, signaling a potential continuation of the bullish rally.

儘管當前存在通膨壓力，但 ETH 的長期前景仍然樂觀。自 2023 年 10 月以來，50 日移動平均線 (MA) 一直保持在 200 日移動平均線上方，形成一個看漲的黃金十字，顯示價格持續上漲。這表明短期價格趨勢優於長期價格趨勢，顯示看漲反彈可能會持續。

Positive Momentum and Bullish Sentiment

正面的勢頭和看漲情緒

Readings from Ethereum's Directional Movement Index further support this bullish outlook. The Positive Directional Index (green) has remained above the Negative Directional Index (red) since October 2023, indicating a rise in bullish momentum. This sustained crossover is a positive sign, as traders interpret it as confirmation of an uptrend and a potential for further price increases.

以太坊方向運動指數的讀數進一步支持了這個看漲前景。自 2023 年 10 月以來，正向指數（綠色）一直保持在負向指數（紅色）之上，顯示看漲勢頭有所增強。這種持續的交叉是一個積極的信號，因為交易者將其解釋為上升趨勢的確認以及價格進一步上漲的潛力。

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator, which tracks market consolidation phases, has also displayed consistent green upward-facing bars for ETH since November 2023. This suggests that the coin has maintained upward momentum despite recent price setbacks.

自 2023 年 11 月以來，追蹤市場整合階段的擠壓動量指標也一直顯示 ETH 的綠色向上柱。

Profit-Taking and Market Sentiment

獲利了結和市場情緒

It is worth noting that Ethereum has experienced increased profit-taking activity since mid-February, which has contributed to a decline in some momentum metrics. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Money Flow Index (MFI) currently stand at 58.77 and 52.01, respectively, indicating a slight reduction in buying pressure due to recent bearish trends.

值得注意的是，自 2 月中旬以來，以太坊的獲利了結活動有所增加，這導致了一些動量指標的下降。相對強弱指數（RSI）和資金流量指數（MFI）目前分別為58.77和52.01，顯示近期看跌趨勢導致的買盤壓力略有減輕。

However, the combined analysis of these indicators suggests that ETH is not in extreme overbought or oversold conditions, and the trend remains relatively stable with a bullish bias.

不過，綜合這些指標分析表明，ETH並未處於極端超買或超賣的情況，走勢仍相對穩定，偏多。

Futures Market Dynamics

期貨市場動態

The futures market for ETH has witnessed a decline in open interest since its year-to-date peak of $15 billion on April 9th, with a 33% drop to its current level of $10 billion. This reduction in open interest indicates a decrease in trading activity, as participants close out their positions without opening new ones.

ETH 期貨市場的未平倉合約自 4 月 9 日達到年初至今的 150 億美元高峰以來一直在下降，下降了 33%，至目前的 100 億美元水準。未平倉合約的減少表明交易活動減少，因為參與者平倉而不開立新倉位。

Negative funding rates for ETH futures on five separate days, most recently on April 22nd, suggest that traders were betting on a decline in the coin's value. However, as of press time, long traders have regained control with a positive funding rate of 0.0023%.

ETH 期貨連續五個交易日（最近一次是 4 月 22 日）出現負融資利率，這表明交易者押注該代幣的價值會下跌。然而，截至發稿，多頭交易者以0.0023%的正資金費率重新奪回控制權。

Conclusion

結論

While Ethereum's supply dynamics have temporarily shifted towards inflation due to decreased network activity, the coin's long-term outlook remains bullish. The 50-day MA crossover, positive momentum readings, and a relatively stable market sentiment suggest that the current trend may continue. However, it is important to monitor market conditions, including changes in supply and demand, as they could influence ETH's price trajectory in the future.

儘管由於網路活動減少，以太坊的供應動態暫時轉向通膨，但該貨幣的長期前景仍然看漲。 50 日均線交叉、積極的動能讀數以及相對穩定的市場情緒表明當前趨勢可能會持續。然而，監控市場狀況（包括供需變化）非常重要，因為它們可能會影響 ETH 未來的價格軌跡。