以太坊（ETH）冒险进入针对比特币（BTC）的超卖领土

以太坊的原住民令牌Ether（ETH）近几个月来多次对比特币（BTC）进行了超卖领土。

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has ventured into oversold territory multiple times against Bitcoin (BTC) in recent months, but the altcoin has yet to show any signs of finding a price bottom. The trading situation is actually quite similar to a previous scenario, and ETH’s market structure suggests that it could repeat itself in Q2 to Q3 of this year.

近几个月来，以太坊的本地令牌Ether（ETH）多次冒险对比特币（BTC）进行超卖领土，但Altcoin尚未显示出任何发现价格最低的迹象。交易状况实际上与以前的情况非常相似，ETH的市场结构表明，它可以在今年的第2到第三季度重复。

Ether’s repeat breakdowns point to more downside

以太的重复分解指向更多缺点

The relative strength index (RSI) on ETH’s 3-day timeframe remains below 30, a level that typically signals a potential bounce.

ETH 3天的时间范围的相对强度指数（RSI）保持在30以下，这种水平通常标志着潜在的反弹。

However, historical patterns show that previous dips into oversold conditions have failed to mark a definitive bottom. Each instance has been followed by another leg lower, reflecting persistent bearish momentum.

但是，历史模式表明，以前的销售状况未能标志着明确的底部。每个实例之后都是另一只腿，反映了持续的看跌动量。

ETH/BTC three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

ETH/BTC三天的价格图。资料来源：TradingView

Since mid-2024, the ETH/BTC pair has undergone repeat breakdowns, with losses of around 13%, 21%, 25%, and 19.5% occurring in rapid succession. Moreover, the 50-day and 200-day EMAs are trending lower, confirming the lack of bullish strength.

自2024年中期以来，ETH/BTC对经历了重复崩溃，损失约为13％，21％，25％和19.5％。此外，为期50天和200天的EMA趋势降低，证实了看涨的力量的缺乏。

X-based market analyst @CarpeNoctom highlighted ETH’s negative price performance, noting that the ETH/BTC pair has failed to confirm a bullish divergence—when the price makes lower lows but the RSI makes higher lows—on its weekly chart.

总部位于X的市场分析师@CarpenoCtom强调了ETH的负价格绩效，并指出ETH/BTC对未能确认看涨的看法分歧 - 当价格降低时，RSI在每周的图表中占据了较高的低点。

ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView/CryptoNoctom

ETH/BTC每周价格图。资料来源：TradingView/Cryptonoctom

ETH ETF outflows and onchain data hint at further weakness

ETH ETF流出和OnChain数据提示进一步弱点

The “cursed” ETH/BTC downtrend stands out when compared to the broader crypto market. This includes persistent outflows witnessed across the US-based spot ETH ETFs, as well as negative onchain data.

与更广泛的加密市场相比，“被诅咒”的ETH/BTC下降趋势脱颖而出。这包括在美国的ETH ETF中见证的持久流出以及负面的OnChain数据。

The net flows into the spot Ether ETFs have dropped 9.8% in March to $2.54 billion. In comparison, the spot Bitcoin ETF net flows are down 2.35% in the same period to $35.74 billion.

3月，净流入Ether ETF的现货ETF下降了9.8％，至25.4亿美元。相比之下，同期比特币ETF净流量下降了2.35％，至357.4亿美元。

Source: Ted Pillows

资料来源：TED枕头

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s gas fees—measured by daily median gas consumption on mainnet—were sitting around 1.12 GWEI as of March, down by nearly 50 times what they were just a year ago.

同时，以太坊的汽油费（每天在主网上的中位气体消耗量）截至3月，GWEI距离1.12左右，降低了近50倍，而这是一年前的50倍。

Ethereum median gas fees vs. ETH price (in dollar terms). Source: Nansen

以太坊的中位气费与ETH价格（以美元计）。资料来源：南森

“Despite the second rally of ETH price into 2024 year end, activity on mainnet as measured by gas consumption never fully recovered,” data analytics platform Nansen wrote in its latest report, adding:

数据分析平台Nansen在其最新报告中写道：“尽管将ETH价格的第二次集会到2024年底，但通过气体消耗从未完全恢复的活动衡量。”

Nansen argued that they remain cautiously bearish on ETH due to its unfavorable risk/reward ratio compared to BTC and lower-valued altcoins with niche market focus.

Nansen辩称，与BTC和低价值的Altcoins相比，由于其不利的风险/回报率，他们仍然对ETH保持谨慎的看跌。

A lack of demand for ETH relative to Bitcoin is further visible in its future volume data.

相对于比特币，对ETH的需求不足在其未来的数量数据中进一步可见。

Notably, Bitcoin futures volume has rebounded 32% from its Feb. 23 lows, reaching $57 billion on March 18. In comparison, ETH’s trading activity remains mostly flat, according to onchain data platform Glassnode.

值得注意的是，比特币期货量从2月23日的低点反弹了32％，3月18日达到570亿美元。相比之下，ETH的交易活动大部分仍然平坦。

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana futures volume. Source: Glassnode

比特币，以太坊和索拉纳期货量。来源：玻璃节

The ETH/BTC pair could drop another 15%

ETH/BTC对可能会再下降15％

ETH/BTC pair is forming a pennant pattern on the daily chart, characterized by a period of consolidation within converging trendlines forming after a steep decline.

ETH/BTC对在每日图表上形成了五角旗模式，其特征是在急剧下降后形成的趋势趋势线中的合并时期。

Related: Standard Chartered drops 2025 ETH price estimate by 60% to $4K

相关：标准特许跌落2025 ETH价格估算值60％至$ 4K

A pennant technically resolves when the price drops below the lower trendline and falls by as much as the previous downtrend’s height. Applying the same rule on ETH/BTC brings its downside target for April to 0.01968 BTC, down 15% from the current levels.

当价格下降到较低的趋势线以下，并且在以前的下降趋势的高度下降时，冠军从技术上可以解决。在ETH/BTC上应用相同的规则将其4月的下行目标达到0.01968 BTC，比当前水平下降了15％。

ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView

ETH/BTC每日价格图。资料来源：TradingView

Furthermore, the 50-day and 200-day EMAs remain in a sharp downward trajectory, with the ETH/BTC pair trading far below these key levels, signaling a persistent bear market structure.

此外，50天和200天EMA仍然处于急剧的向下轨迹，ETH/BTC对的交易远低于这些关键水平，这表明持续的熊市结构。

Despite the looming downside risk, a bullish invalidation could occur if ETH/BTC breaks above the pennant’s upper resistance and flips the 50-day EMA into support.

尽管有迫在眉睫的下行风险，但如果ETH/BTC折断了五角旗的上部电阻并将50天的EMA翻转为支持，可能会发生看涨的无效。