以太坊（ETH）冒險進入針對比特幣（BTC）的超賣領土

以太坊的原住民令牌Ether（ETH）近幾個月來已經多次對比特幣（BTC）闖入超賣領土

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has ventured into oversold territory multiple times against Bitcoin (BTC) in recent months, but the altcoin has yet to show any signs of finding a price bottom. The trading situation is actually quite similar to a previous scenario, and ETH’s market structure suggests that it could repeat itself in Q2 to Q3 of this year.

近幾個月來，以太坊的本地令牌Ether（ETH）多次冒險對比特幣（BTC）進行超賣領土，但Altcoin尚未顯示出任何發現價格最低的跡象。交易狀況實際上與以前的情況非常相似，ETH的市場結構表明，它可以在今年的第2到第三季度重複。

Ether’s repeat breakdowns point to more downside

以太的重複分解指向更多缺點

The relative strength index (RSI) on ETH’s 3-day timeframe remains below 30, a level that typically signals a potential bounce.

ETH 3天的時間範圍的相對強度指數（RSI）保持在30以下，這種水平通常標誌著潛在的反彈。

However, historical patterns show that previous dips into oversold conditions have failed to mark a definitive bottom. Each instance has been followed by another leg lower, reflecting persistent bearish momentum.

但是，歷史模式表明，以前的銷售狀況未能標誌著明確的底部。每個實例之後都是另一隻腿，反映了持續的看跌動量。

ETH/BTC three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

ETH/BTC三天的價格圖。資料來源：TradingView

Since mid-2024, the ETH/BTC pair has undergone repeat breakdowns, with losses of around 13%, 21%, 25%, and 19.5% occurring in rapid succession. Moreover, the 50-day and 200-day EMAs are trending lower, confirming the lack of bullish strength.

自2024年中期以來，ETH/BTC對經歷了重複崩潰，損失約為13％，21％，25％和19.5％。此外，為期50天和200天的EMA趨勢降低，證實了看漲的力量的缺乏。

X-based market analyst @CarpeNoctom highlighted ETH’s negative price performance, noting that the ETH/BTC pair has failed to confirm a bullish divergence—when the price makes lower lows but the RSI makes higher lows—on its weekly chart.

總部位於X的市場分析師@CarpenoCtom強調了ETH的負價格績效，並指出ETH/BTC對未能確認看漲的看法分歧 - 當價格降低時，RSI在每週的圖表中佔據了較高的低點。

ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView/CryptoNoctom

ETH/BTC每週價格圖。資料來源：TradingView/Cryptonoctom

ETH ETF outflows and onchain data hint at further weakness

ETH ETF流出和OnChain數據提示進一步弱點

The “cursed” ETH/BTC downtrend stands out when compared to the broader crypto market. This includes persistent outflows witnessed across the US-based spot ETH ETFs, as well as negative onchain data.

與更廣泛的加密市場相比，“被詛咒”的ETH/BTC下降趨勢脫穎而出。這包括在美國的ETH ETF中見證的持久流出以及負面的OnChain數據。

The net flows into the spot Ether ETFs have dropped 9.8% in March to $2.54 billion. In comparison, the spot Bitcoin ETF net flows are down 2.35% in the same period to $35.74 billion.

3月，淨流入Ether ETF的現貨ETF下降了9.8％，至25.4億美元。相比之下，同期比特幣ETF淨流量下降了2.35％，至357.4億美元。

Source: Ted Pillows

資料來源：TED枕頭

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s gas fees—measured by daily median gas consumption on mainnet—were sitting around 1.12 GWEI as of March, down by nearly 50 times what they were just a year ago.

同時，以太坊的汽油費（每天在主網上的中位氣體消耗量）截至3月，GWEI距離1.12左右，降低了近50倍，而這是一年前的50倍。

Ethereum median gas fees vs. ETH price (in dollar terms). Source: Nansen

以太坊的中位氣費與ETH價格（以美元計）。資料來源：南森

“Despite the second rally of ETH price into 2024 year end, activity on mainnet as measured by gas consumption never fully recovered,” data analytics platform Nansen wrote in its latest report, adding:

數據分析平台Nansen在其最新報告中寫道：“儘管將ETH價格的第二次集會到2024年底，但通過氣體消耗從未完全恢復的活動衡量。”

Nansen argued that they remain cautiously bearish on ETH due to its unfavorable risk/reward ratio compared to BTC and lower-valued altcoins with niche market focus.

Nansen辯稱，與BTC和低價值的Altcoins相比，由於其不利的風險/回報率，他們仍然對ETH保持謹慎的看跌。

A lack of demand for ETH relative to Bitcoin is further visible in its future volume data.

相對於比特幣，對ETH的需求不足在其未來的數量數據中進一步可見。

Notably, Bitcoin futures volume has rebounded 32% from its Feb. 23 lows, reaching $57 billion on March 18. In comparison, ETH’s trading activity remains mostly flat, according to onchain data platform Glassnode.

值得注意的是，比特幣期貨量從2月23日的低點反彈了32％，3月18日達到570億美元。相比之下，ETH的交易活動大部分仍然平坦。

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana futures volume. Source: Glassnode

比特幣，以太坊和索拉納期貨量。來源：玻璃節

The ETH/BTC pair could drop another 15%

ETH/BTC對可能會再下降15％

ETH/BTC pair is forming a pennant pattern on the daily chart, characterized by a period of consolidation within converging trendlines forming after a steep decline.

ETH/BTC對在每日圖表上形成了五角旗模式，其特徵是在急劇下降後形成的趨勢趨勢線中的合併時期。

Related: Standard Chartered drops 2025 ETH price estimate by 60% to $4K

相關：標準特許跌落2025 ETH價格估算值60％至$ 4K

A pennant technically resolves when the price drops below the lower trendline and falls by as much as the previous downtrend’s height. Applying the same rule on ETH/BTC brings its downside target for April to 0.01968 BTC, down 15% from the current levels.

當價格下降到較低的趨勢線以下，並且在以前的下降趨勢的高度下降時，冠軍從技術上可以解決。在ETH/BTC上應用相同的規則將其4月的下行目標達到0.01968 BTC，比當前水平下降了15％。

ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView

ETH/BTC每日價格圖。資料來源：TradingView

Furthermore, the 50-day and 200-day EMAs remain in a sharp downward trajectory, with the ETH/BTC pair trading far below these key levels, signaling a persistent bear market structure.

此外，50天和200天EMA仍然處於急劇的向下軌跡，ETH/BTC對的交易遠低於這些關鍵水平，這表明持續的熊市結構。

Despite the looming downside risk, a bullish invalidation could occur if ETH/BTC breaks above the pennant’s upper resistance and flips the 50-day EMA into support.

儘管有迫在眉睫的下行風險，但如果ETH/BTC折斷了五角旗的上部電阻並將50天的EMA翻轉為支持，可能會發生看漲的無效。