以太坊[ETH]在2021– 2022周期中优于比特币[BTC]

在2021 - 2022年的周期中，以太坊[ETH]尤其优于比特币[BTC]，受到投机热情，主要网络升级和衍生品市场活动的提升。

During the 2021–2022 cycle, Ethereum [ETH] notably outperformed Bitcoin [BTC], buoyed by speculative enthusiasm, major network upgrades, and elevated activity in the derivatives market. Traders piled into ETH perpetual futures, betting on its long-term dominance amid the DeFi boom and the transition to proof-of-stake.

在2021 - 2022年的周期中，以太坊[ETH]尤其优于比特币[BTC]，受到投机热情，主要网络升级和衍生品市场活动的提升。贸易商堆积在ETH永恒的未来中，在Defi Boom和过渡到有验证验证的情况下押注了其长期优势。

However, since early 2023, the momentum of ETH/BTC has sharply reversed itself. In fact, Ethereum’s weakening performance against Bitcoin is a sign of a broader shift in market dynamics – One marked by declining interest and cautious capital outflows from ETH.

但是，自2023年初以来，ETH/BTC的势头急剧逆转。实际上，以太坊对比特币的绩效削弱是市场动态转变的标志，这是一个以ETH的兴趣和谨慎的资本流出为标志。

Long-term depreciation signals in ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC中的长期折旧信号

Data from CryptoQuant seemed to paint a stark picture of Ethereum’s weakening position relative to Bitcoin.

来自加密素养的数据似乎描绘了以太坊相对于比特币的弱势位置的鲜明图片。

Since early 2023, both the ETH/BTC price ratio and the perpetual futures open interest ratio have followed a sharp, sustained decline. By March 2025, Open Interest dropped to 0.15 while the price ratio plunged to just 0.02 – An unmistakable sign of bearish conviction from leveraged traders.

自2023年初以来，ETH/BTC的价格比和永久未来的开放利息比都在急剧下降。到2025年3月，开放利息下降到0.15，而价格比仅下降到0.02，这是杠杆交易者被定罪的明显迹象。

This isn’t a fleeting correction. Instead, it signals a deeper shift in market sentiment. Speculators are rotating out of Ethereum, and the diminishing Open Interest hints at a collapse in trader confidence.

这不是短暂的更正。取而代之的是，它标志着市场情绪的更深变化。投机者正在从以太坊中旋转，而开放兴趣的减少暗示，交易者信心崩溃了。

When derivatives markets show sustained disinterest, it often reflects not just lower prices, but a fundamental revaluation of an asset’s role in the broader market.

当衍生品市场表现出持续的不感兴趣时​​，它通常不仅反映了价格较低的价格，而且反映了对资产在更广泛市场中的作用的基本重估。

Fear, emotion, and the case for a rebound

恐惧，情感和反弹的情况

Now, looking at the chart, it showed a sobering drop in ETH/BTC ratios and Open Interest, but it also tells something important – Fear. The sharpness of the decline signaled not just disinterest, but almost emotional exits as investors sought safety in Bitcoin, rendering a vivid picture of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) in the broader market. Such apathy usually marks pivotal bottoms.

现在，查看图表，它显示出ETH/BTC比率和开放兴趣的醒目下降，但也说明了一些重要的事情 - 恐惧。下降的清晰度不仅表明了不感兴趣，而且由于投资者寻求比特币安全性，几乎是情感上的退出，从而使FOMO生动地描绘了更广阔的市场（害怕失踪）。这种冷漠通常标志着关键的底部。

In late 2018 and mid-2020, similar phases of capitulation were followed by explosive Ethereum rallies as the altcoins began to rapidly lose value relative to Bitcoin.

在2018年底和2020年中期，随着山寨币开始相对于比特币，相似的投降阶段之后是爆炸性的以太坊集会。

What appears now as abandonment could be the emotional reset that precedes accumulation. With fewer speculative positions and low liquidity, Ethereum may be primed for volatility. If sentiment turns, even slightly, the rebound could be swift and violent. In that light, this downturn may be less of an end – and more of a coiled spring.

现在看来被放弃的可能是在积累之前的情感重置。由于投机位置较少，流动性低，以太坊可能会引发挥发性。如果情绪转变，即使有些转变，反弹可能会迅速而暴力。从这个角度来看，这种低迷可能不再是终点，而更多的是盘绕的春天。

A setup for shock recovery

冲击恢复的设置

When markets become overly one-sided, volatility thrives. Ethereum’s position, with thin liquidity and low Open Interest, creates the perfect setup for a sharp reversal. The “max pain” concept often marks turning points, where most are betting on further downside, only to be caught off-guard by a sudden rally.

当市场变得过于单方面时，波动性就会繁荣。以太坊的位置较薄，流动性较小，开放率低，为急剧逆转创造了完美的设置。 “最大痛苦”的概念通常标志着转折点，大多数人在进一步的下跌方面押注，只是突然被集会陷入了措施。

If ETH regains momentum, the ETH/BTC ratio could quickly rise back to 0.07. With positioning at extreme lows, even a small shift in sentiment or a BTC cooldown could spark a high-volatility comeback.

如果ETH恢复动量，则ETH/BTC的比率可能会迅速升至0.07。随着位置处于极低的低点，即使是情绪或BTC冷却的微小转变也可能引发高挥发性的卷土重来。