比特币（BTC）在一月份达到109,000美元的高峰后进入一段犹豫不决

比特币（BTC）正在经历一段犹豫不决的时期。在2025年1月达到109,000美元的高峰之后，其价格下降到84,290美元

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently going through a period of indecision as its price dropped to $84,290 on Wednesday. The cryptocurrency is now down 23% from the peak of $109,000 hit in January 2025.

比特币（BTC）目前正在经历一段犹豫不决的时期，因为其价格在周三降至84,290美元。现在的加密货币现在比2025年1月的109,000美元峰值下降了23％。

Some analysts believe that Bitcoin could enter a new consolidation phase of 8 months, a pattern similar to what was observed in 2024. This hypothesis is based on several technical indicators and the behavior of institutional investors.

一些分析人士认为，比特币可以进入8个月的新合并阶段，这种模式与2024年观察到的模式相似。该假设基于几个技术指标和机构投资者的行为。

The “High Tight Flag” pattern, usually considered a bullish signal, seems this time to show signs of weakness. According to Markus Thielen, an analyst at 10x Research, the current market configuration reflects more indecision than a true consolidation conducive to recovery.

“高度紧密的旗帜”模式通常被认为是看涨的信号，这次似乎表现出虚弱的迹象。根据10倍研究分析师Markus Thielen的说法，当前的市场配置反映出比有利于恢复的真正合并更固定的。

Indeed, Bitcoin is oscillating within an uncertain corridor, fueled by outflows from ETFs and a lack of bullish catalysts.

的确，比特币在不确定的走廊中振荡，这是由于ETF的流出和缺乏看涨的催化剂所吸引的。

Since the beginning of March, American Bitcoin ETFs have recorded cumulative outflows of $1.66 billion. This lack of interest in accumulating at reduced prices contrasts with previous bullish phases, where investors took advantage of corrections to strengthen their positions. The absence of a “buy-the-dip” movement highlights the market’s caution and the prevailing uncertainty.

自3月初以来，美国比特币ETF记录了16.6亿美元的累积流出。缺乏对以降低价格积累的兴趣与以前的看涨阶段形成鲜明对比，在这种情况下，投资者利用纠正来加强其立场。缺乏“浸入式”运动突出了市场的谨慎和普遍的不确定性。

This, according to Thielen, could prolong the 8-month consolidation.

根据蒂伦（Thielen）的说法，这可以延长8个月的合并。

One of the key elements of the current dynamic is the low activity of hedge funds and institutional investors. Contrary to expectations, the spot Bitcoin ETF market has not served as a liquidity reservoir to cushion the decline.

当前动态的关键要素之一是对冲基金和机构投资者的低活动。与期望相反，现货比特币ETF市场尚未成为缓冲下降的流动性储藏。

Moreover, the majority of the inflows observed previously seem to have been motivated by arbitrage strategies, rather than by long-term conviction.

此外，以前观察到的大多数流入似乎是出于套利策略的动机，而不是由长期定罪。

This situation is partly explained by historically low funding rates, reducing the incentive to inject new capital into the market. This stagnation thus increases the risk of a new correction towards key technical levels.

这种情况部分是通过历史较低的资金率来解释的，从而减少了将新资本注入市场的动机。因此，这种停滞增加了对关键技术水平进行新的纠正的风险。

In light of this situation, several scenarios are being contemplated. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes that Bitcoin could fall to $78,000, or even $75,000 in the event of a break of the current support levels. For his part, Iliya Kalchev (Nexo) suggests that the $70,000 zone could provide a more stable base for a rebound.

鉴于这种情况，正在考虑几种情况。 BITMEX的联合创始人Arthur Hayes认为，如果当前支持水平的休息时间，比特币可能会降至78,000美元，甚至75,000美元。伊利亚·卡尔切夫（Iliya Kalchev）（Nexo）认为，70,000美元的区域可以为反弹提供更稳定的基础。

Uncertainty remains. Without renewed interest from institutional investors or a triggering event, Bitcoin may evolve into a prolonged waiting phase. The market is now closely monitoring these macroeconomics signals and ETF flows, which will be crucial for the next impulse.

不确定性仍然存在。如果没有机构投资者或触发事件的新兴趣，比特币可能会演变为延长的等待阶段。现在，市场正在密切监视这些宏观经济学信号和ETF流，这对于下一个冲动至关重要。