比特幣（BTC）在一月份達到109,000美元的高峰後進入一段猶豫不決

比特幣（BTC）正在經歷一段猶豫不決的時期。在2025年1月達到109,000美元的高峰之後，其價格下降到84,290美元

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently going through a period of indecision as its price dropped to $84,290 on Wednesday. The cryptocurrency is now down 23% from the peak of $109,000 hit in January 2025.

比特幣（BTC）目前正在經歷一段猶豫不決的時期，因為其價格在周三降至84,290美元。現在的加密貨幣現在比2025年1月的109,000美元峰值下降了23％。

Some analysts believe that Bitcoin could enter a new consolidation phase of 8 months, a pattern similar to what was observed in 2024. This hypothesis is based on several technical indicators and the behavior of institutional investors.

一些分析人士認為，比特幣可以進入8個月的新合併階段，這種模式與2024年觀察到的模式相似。該假設基於幾個技術指標和機構投資者的行為。

The “High Tight Flag” pattern, usually considered a bullish signal, seems this time to show signs of weakness. According to Markus Thielen, an analyst at 10x Research, the current market configuration reflects more indecision than a true consolidation conducive to recovery.

“高度緊密的旗幟”模式通常被認為是看漲的信號，這次似乎表現出虛弱的跡象。根據10倍研究分析師Markus Thielen的說法，當前的市場配置反映出比有利於恢復的真正合併更固定的。

Indeed, Bitcoin is oscillating within an uncertain corridor, fueled by outflows from ETFs and a lack of bullish catalysts.

的確，比特幣在不確定的走廊中振盪，這是由於ETF的流出和缺乏看漲的催化劑所吸引的。

Since the beginning of March, American Bitcoin ETFs have recorded cumulative outflows of $1.66 billion. This lack of interest in accumulating at reduced prices contrasts with previous bullish phases, where investors took advantage of corrections to strengthen their positions. The absence of a “buy-the-dip” movement highlights the market’s caution and the prevailing uncertainty.

自3月初以來，美國比特幣ETF記錄了16.6億美元的累積流出。缺乏對以降低價格積累的興趣與以前的看漲階段形成鮮明對比，在這種情況下，投資者利用糾正來加強其立場。缺乏“浸入式”運動突出了市場的謹慎和普遍的不確定性。

This, according to Thielen, could prolong the 8-month consolidation.

根據蒂倫（Thielen）的說法，這可以延長8個月的合併。

One of the key elements of the current dynamic is the low activity of hedge funds and institutional investors. Contrary to expectations, the spot Bitcoin ETF market has not served as a liquidity reservoir to cushion the decline.

當前動態的關鍵要素之一是對沖基金和機構投資者的低活動。與期望相反，現貨比特幣ETF市場尚未成為緩衝下降的流動性儲藏。

Moreover, the majority of the inflows observed previously seem to have been motivated by arbitrage strategies, rather than by long-term conviction.

此外，以前觀察到的大多數流入似乎是出於套利策略的動機，而不是由長期定罪。

This situation is partly explained by historically low funding rates, reducing the incentive to inject new capital into the market. This stagnation thus increases the risk of a new correction towards key technical levels.

這種情況部分是通過歷史較低的資金率來解釋的，從而減少了將新資本注入市場的動機。因此，這種停滯增加了對關鍵技術水平進行新的糾正的風險。

In light of this situation, several scenarios are being contemplated. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes that Bitcoin could fall to $78,000, or even $75,000 in the event of a break of the current support levels. For his part, Iliya Kalchev (Nexo) suggests that the $70,000 zone could provide a more stable base for a rebound.

鑑於這種情況，正在考慮幾種情況。 BITMEX的聯合創始人Arthur Hayes認為，如果當前支持水平的休息時間，比特幣可能會降至78,000美元，甚至75,000美元。伊利亞·卡爾切夫（Iliya Kalchev）（Nexo）認為，70,000美元的區域可以為反彈提供更穩定的基礎。

Uncertainty remains. Without renewed interest from institutional investors or a triggering event, Bitcoin may evolve into a prolonged waiting phase. The market is now closely monitoring these macroeconomics signals and ETF flows, which will be crucial for the next impulse.

不確定性仍然存在。如果沒有機構投資者或觸發事件的新興趣，比特幣可能會演變為延長的等待階段。現在，市場正在密切監視這些宏觀經濟學信號和ETF流，這對於下一個衝動至關重要。