以太坊[ETH]在2021– 2022週期中優於比特幣[BTC]

在2021 - 2022年的周期中，以太坊[ETH]尤其優於比特幣[BTC]，受到投機熱情，主要網絡升級和衍生品市場活動的提升。

During the 2021–2022 cycle, Ethereum [ETH] notably outperformed Bitcoin [BTC], buoyed by speculative enthusiasm, major network upgrades, and elevated activity in the derivatives market. Traders piled into ETH perpetual futures, betting on its long-term dominance amid the DeFi boom and the transition to proof-of-stake.

在2021 - 2022年的周期中，以太坊[ETH]尤其優於比特幣[BTC]，受到投機熱情，主要網絡升級和衍生品市場活動的提升。貿易商堆積在ETH永恆的未來中，在Defi Boom和過渡到有驗證驗證的情況下押注了其長期優勢。

However, since early 2023, the momentum of ETH/BTC has sharply reversed itself. In fact, Ethereum’s weakening performance against Bitcoin is a sign of a broader shift in market dynamics – One marked by declining interest and cautious capital outflows from ETH.

但是，自2023年初以來，ETH/BTC的勢頭急劇逆轉。實際上，以太坊對比特幣的績效削弱是市場動態轉變的標誌，這是一個以ETH的興趣和謹慎的資本流出為標誌。

Long-term depreciation signals in ETH/BTC

ETH/BTC中的長期折舊信號

Data from CryptoQuant seemed to paint a stark picture of Ethereum’s weakening position relative to Bitcoin.

來自加密素養的數據似乎描繪了以太坊相對於比特幣的弱勢位置的鮮明圖片。

Since early 2023, both the ETH/BTC price ratio and the perpetual futures open interest ratio have followed a sharp, sustained decline. By March 2025, Open Interest dropped to 0.15 while the price ratio plunged to just 0.02 – An unmistakable sign of bearish conviction from leveraged traders.

自2023年初以來，ETH/BTC的價格比和永久未來的開放利息比都在急劇下降。到2025年3月，開放利息下降到0.15，而價格比僅下降到0.02，這是槓桿交易者被定罪的明顯跡象。

This isn’t a fleeting correction. Instead, it signals a deeper shift in market sentiment. Speculators are rotating out of Ethereum, and the diminishing Open Interest hints at a collapse in trader confidence.

這不是短暫的更正。取而代之的是，它標誌著市場情緒的更深變化。投機者正在從以太坊中旋轉，而開放興趣的減少暗示，交易者信心崩潰了。

When derivatives markets show sustained disinterest, it often reflects not just lower prices, but a fundamental revaluation of an asset’s role in the broader market.

當衍生品市場表現出持續的不感興趣時​​，它通常不僅反映了價格較低的價格，而且反映了對資產在更廣泛市場中的作用的基本重估。

Fear, emotion, and the case for a rebound

恐懼，情感和反彈的情況

Now, looking at the chart, it showed a sobering drop in ETH/BTC ratios and Open Interest, but it also tells something important – Fear. The sharpness of the decline signaled not just disinterest, but almost emotional exits as investors sought safety in Bitcoin, rendering a vivid picture of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) in the broader market. Such apathy usually marks pivotal bottoms.

現在，查看圖表，它顯示出ETH/BTC比率和開放興趣的醒目下降，但也說明了一些重要的事情 - 恐懼。下降的清晰度不僅表明了不感興趣，而且由於投資者尋求比特幣安全性，幾乎是情感上的退出，從而使FOMO生動地描繪了更廣闊的市場（害怕失踪）。這種冷漠通常標誌著關鍵的底部。

In late 2018 and mid-2020, similar phases of capitulation were followed by explosive Ethereum rallies as the altcoins began to rapidly lose value relative to Bitcoin.

在2018年底和2020年中期，隨著山寨幣開始相對於比特幣，相似的投降階段之後是爆炸性的以太坊集會。

What appears now as abandonment could be the emotional reset that precedes accumulation. With fewer speculative positions and low liquidity, Ethereum may be primed for volatility. If sentiment turns, even slightly, the rebound could be swift and violent. In that light, this downturn may be less of an end – and more of a coiled spring.

現在看來被放棄的可能是在積累之前的情感重置。由於投機位置較少，流動性低，以太坊可能會引發揮發性。如果情緒轉變，即使有些轉變，反彈可能會迅速而暴力。從這個角度來看，這種低迷可能不再是終點，而更多的是盤繞的春天。

A setup for shock recovery

衝擊恢復的設置

When markets become overly one-sided, volatility thrives. Ethereum’s position, with thin liquidity and low Open Interest, creates the perfect setup for a sharp reversal. The “max pain” concept often marks turning points, where most are betting on further downside, only to be caught off-guard by a sudden rally.

當市場變得過於單方面時，波動性就會繁榮。以太坊的位置較薄，流動性較小，開放率低，為急劇逆轉創造了完美的設置。 “最大痛苦”的概念通常標誌著轉折點，大多數人在進一步的下跌方面押注，只是突然被集會陷入了措施。

If ETH regains momentum, the ETH/BTC ratio could quickly rise back to 0.07. With positioning at extreme lows, even a small shift in sentiment or a BTC cooldown could spark a high-volatility comeback.

如果ETH恢復動量，則ETH/BTC的比率可能會迅速升至0.07。隨著位置處於極低的低點，即使是情緒或BTC冷卻的微小轉變也可能引發高揮發性的捲土重來。