美国大选会改变加密货币吗？也许吧，但 TradFi 巨头无论如何都可能会继续前进

就在本周，在选举日之前，宣布了一些大型金融项目——这表明人们不必担心前方的道路。

As the U.S. presidential election nears its conclusion, crypto traders are speculating on how the outcome will impact digital asset prices, at least in the short term. Many believe that a Donald Trump victory would be positive for crypto prices, while a win by Kamala Harris would be negative.

随着美国总统大选接近尾声，加密货币交易者正在猜测选举结果将如何影响数字资产价格，至少在短期内是这样。许多人认为，唐纳德·特朗普的胜利将对加密货币价格产生积极影响，而卡马拉·哈里斯的胜利将对加密货币价格产生负面影响。

However, large financial institutions appear to be looking past the short-term market action and viewing the election as a temporary catalyst that won't derail the adoption of crypto and blockchain technology over the long haul.

然而，大型金融机构似乎忽视了短期市场行为，并将选举视为暂时的催化剂，不会阻碍加密货币和区块链技术的长期采用。

“Adoption of digital assets at the institutional level will very much continue globally no matter who wins the election," said Phillip Shoemaker, executive director of Identity.com, a non-profit organization providing decentralized identity verification.

提供去中心化身份验证的非营利组织 Identity.com 的执行董事 Phillip Shoemaker 表示：“无论谁赢得选举，全球机构层面对数字资产的采用都将继续下去。”

Several positive developments on that front have emerged this week amid the cacophony leading up to Tuesday's election. Swift – the TradFi interbank messaging system – partnered with UBS and Chainlink to test allowing digital asset transactions to settle with fiat payment systems across more than 11,500 financial institutions in over 200 countries and territories.

在周二选举前的喧嚣声中，本周在这方面出现了一些积极的进展。 Swift（TradFi 银行间消息传递系统）与 UBS 和 Chainlink 合作，测试允许数字资产交易通过 200 多个国家和地区 11,500 多家金融机构的法定支付系统进行结算。

Meanwhile, Citigroup and Fidelity International developed a proof-of-concept for an on-chain money-market fund that includes a digital foreign exchange swap.

与此同时，花旗集团和富达国际开发了一种链上货币市场基金的概念验证，其中包括数字外汇互换。

That's just this week, building on many other similar stories throughout the year. The point is: Firms such as Swift and Citigroup would be unlikely to announce such things if they feared this week's elections were likely to kill these initiatives.

这只是本周的事，是在全年许多其他类似故事的基础上发生的。关键是：如果斯威夫特和花旗集团等公司担心本周的选举可能会扼杀这些举措，那么它们就不太可能宣布此类事情。

That said, there is a catch. The question isn't whether the election result will stop the adoption; it's whether it will affect timing.

也就是说，有一个问题。问题不在于选举结果是否会阻止采用；而是在于。是会不会影响时间。

"It’s pretty clear to me that the outcome of the election will have a significant impact on the pace of such adoption," said Shoemaker. "If Trump were to win, I think we’d see a flurry of new ETFs in the United States for a wider variety of digital assets. We’d also see an acceleration in the use of stablecoins for payments, along with more and more corporations incorporating digital assets in one way or another into their strategies," he said.

“我很清楚，选举结果将对这种采用的速度产生重大影响，”舒梅克说。 “如果特朗普获胜，我认为我们会在美国看到一系列针对更广泛数字资产的新 ETF。我们还会看到稳定币用于支付的加速，以及越来越多的稳定币的使用。公司以某种方式将数字资产纳入其战略，”他说。

Echoing his sentiment, Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO Network, the world’s first blockchain geospatial oracle network, said: "If pro-crypto candidates win out in these elections, then we would see not only broader institutional adoption in the United States but also international organizations like the IMF and World Bank really warming up to crypto in a way that we just haven’t seen yet."

全球首个区块链地理空间预言机网络 XYO Network 联合创始人马库斯·莱文 (Markus Levin) 呼应了他的观点：“如果支持加密货币的候选人在这些选举中获胜，那么我们不仅会看到美国更广泛的机构采用，国际货币基金组织和世界银行等国际组织也以我们从未见过的方式真正热衷于加密货币。”

On the other hand, a Harris win may slow down the pace of adoption due to a more restrictive regulatory regime. (The Biden administration that she's served in since 2021 has tended to be highly restrictive on crypto.) "If Harris were to win, I still think institutional adoption would happen. But it would happen more gradually," said Levin, pointing out that the Democrats are slowly coming around to crypto, including Harris herself, which means "it will just take more time for growing this Democratic support for the industry to have a material impact on the broader crypto market.”

另一方面，由于监管制度更加严格，哈里斯的胜利可能会减缓采用的步伐。 （她自 2021 年以来任职的拜登政府往往对加密货币采取严格限制。）“如果哈里斯获胜，我仍然认为机构采用将会发生。但它会逐渐发生，”莱文说，并指出包括哈里斯本人在内的民主党人正在慢慢转向加密货币，这意味着“民主党对加密货币行业的支持需要更多时间才能对更广泛的加密货币市场产生实质性影响。”

Both points resonate. It wasn't long ago that the crypto industry was drowning in not only an unrelenting crypto winter but also intense regulatory crackdowns. In the wake of FTX's spectacular implosion, many wondered whether something dubbed "Operation Choke Point 2.0" — an alleged coordinated effort by the Biden administration to cut the cryptocurrency industry off from the U.S. banking sector — was in action. Many industry players took their businesses out of the U.S. and set up shop overseas.

这两点都有共鸣。不久前，加密行业不仅陷入了无情的加密寒冬，还陷入了严厉的监管打压。在 FTX 发生惊人的内爆之后，许多人想知道所谓的“阻塞点行动 2.0”——据称是拜登政府为切断加密货币行业与美国银行业的联系而采取的协调行动——是否正在采取行动。许多业内人士将业务撤出美国，在海外开店。

It wasn't until recently—albeit after Trump's endorsement of the industry this year—that this sentiment started to shift slightly among the Democrats, leading to a softer stance on the sector. However, Gensler will continue to remain a question mark for the Democrats, given his tough stance on crypto, despite the call for his replacement by even Democratic crypto voters.

直到最近——尽管是在特朗普今年对该行业的认可之后——民主党人的这种情绪才开始略有转变，导致对该行业的立场变得更加温和。然而，鉴于 Gensler 对加密货币的强硬立场，尽管民主党加密货币选民也呼吁更换他，但鉴于他对加密货币的强硬立场，Gensler 将继续成为民主党的一个问号。

Also, large institutions crave regulatory clarity. So if Harris wins, the uncertainty around how she really feels about crypto might make them a bit cautious about their exposure to the industry. "The current market data suggests that institutional investors are particularly sensitive to regulatory clarity, and a Harris administration would need to change their historical stance to provide the predictability they seek," said Brian Dixon, CEO of Off the Chain Capital.

此外，大型机构渴望监管的明确性。因此，如果哈里斯获胜，她对加密货币的真实感受的不确定性可能会让他们对该行业的投资持谨慎态度。 Off the Chain Capital 首席执行官布莱恩·迪克森 (Brian Dixon) 表示：“当前的市场数据表明，机构投资者对监管的明确性特别敏感，哈里斯政府需要改变他们的历史立场，以提供他们所寻求的可预测性。”

"Institutional adoption under Harris could follow a more conventional path, with an emphasis on compliance and integration with existing financial infrastructure," he added, noting that a Trump win, on the other hand, will "catalyze" more dramatic market moves.

他补充说：“哈里斯领导下的机构采用可能会遵循更传统的道路，重点是遵守和与现有金融基础设施的整合。”他指出，另一方面，特朗普的胜利将“催化”更戏剧性的市场走势。

With election results coming in the hours or days ahead, it's easy to get bogged down in the short-term debate around how the outcomes will change the crypto landscape. However, zooming out, it's worth noting that despite many turbulent market conditions and regulatory roller coasters, the digital assets industry has continued to advance and gained not just more crypto supporters but the attention of giant traditional institutions.

随着选举结果在未来几小时或几天内公布，很容易陷入关于选举结果将如何改变加密货币格局的短期辩论。然而，值得注意的是，尽管市场环境动荡，监管过山车不断，但数字资产行业仍在持续发展，不仅赢得了更多的加密货币支持者，还获得了大型传统机构的关注。

The value

价值