全球流动性紧缩预示着麻烦，比特币 (BTC) 价格跌破 90,000 美元

由于市场情绪显示出谨慎迹象，比特币 (BTC) 价格一直难以维持近期高位，跌破 90,000 美元。

Bitcoin’s recent price drop below $90,000 could be a sign of trouble, especially considering the cryptocurrency’s status as a liquidity-sensitive asset and the current macroeconomic conditions.

比特币最近的价格跌破 90,000 美元可能是一个麻烦的迹象，特别是考虑到加密货币作为流动性敏感资产的地位以及当前的宏观经济状况。

A recent tweet by @The0xReport speculates that BTC price might grind lower into the $70,000-$80,000 range due to tightening global liquidity conditions. The accompanying chart showed Bitcoin’s price closely following trends in the global M2 money supply, albeit with a lag of about 10 weeks.

@The0xReport 最近的一条推文推测，由于全球流动性状况收紧，比特币价格可能会跌至 70,000 美元至 80,000 美元的区间。随附的图表显示，比特币的价格密切关注全球 M2 货币供应的趋势，尽管存在约 10 周的滞后。

The recent plateau in M2 supply coincides with Bitcoin’s sharp pullback from $100,000 to $92,500, suggesting diminishing liquidity is playing a key role in the cryptocurrency’s decline. The tweet highlights how BTC price tends to reflect broader liquidity trends.

最近 M2 供应量趋于平稳，恰逢比特币从 100,000 美元大幅回调至 92,500 美元，这表明流动性的减少在加密货币的下跌中发挥了关键作用。该推文强调了比特币价格如何反映更广泛的流动性趋势。

Historical patterns also support this analysis. According to MacroMicro, Bitcoin has performed well during periods of rapid M2 expansion, such as 2020-2021, when central banks injected record levels of liquidity into the global economy to offset the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This surge in liquidity fueled speculative investment, driving BTC prices to new highs.

历史模式也支持这一分析。 MacroMicro 表示，比特币在 M2 快速扩张时期表现良好，例如 2020-2021 年，当时各国央行向全球经济注入了创纪录水平的流动性，以抵消 COVID-19 大流行的影响。流动性的激增刺激了投机性投资，推动比特币价格创下新高。

However, as central banks began tightening monetary policies in 2022, reducing M2 growth, Bitcoin entered a prolonged bear market phase. The price action reinforces the narrative that the token’s price trajectory is closely linked to global liquidity dynamics.

然而，随着各国央行在2022年开始收紧货币政策，降低M2增速，比特币进入了漫长的熊市阶段。价格走势强化了这样的说法：代币的价格轨迹与全球流动性动态密切相关。

Currently, the M2 money supply remains stagnant, reflecting a continuation of restrictive monetary policies by major central banks. This has reduced speculative capital flows into assets like Bitcoin, increasing the likelihood of a deeper correction. The projected consolidation zone of $70,000-$80,000 corresponds with historical price levels observed during previous liquidity contractions.

目前，M2货币供应量仍处于停滞状态，反映出主要央行继续实施紧缩性货币政策。这减少了流入比特币等资产的投机资本，增加了更深层次调整的可能性。预计 70,000 美元至 80,000 美元的盘整区域与之前流动性收缩期间观察到的历史价格水平相对应。

As central banks show no signs of loosening policies, the token’s performance will likely remain subdued in the short to medium term, reflecting its dependence on global liquidity trends.

由于央行没有显示出放松政策的迹象，该代币的表现可能在中短期内保持低迷，反映出其对全球流动性趋势的依赖。