全球流動性緊縮預示著麻煩，比特幣 (BTC) 價格跌破 90,000 美元

由於市場情緒顯示出謹慎跡象，比特幣 (BTC) 價格一直難以維持近期高位，跌破 9 萬美元。

Bitcoin’s recent price drop below $90,000 could be a sign of trouble, especially considering the cryptocurrency’s status as a liquidity-sensitive asset and the current macroeconomic conditions.

比特幣最近的價格跌破 90,000 美元可能是一個麻煩的跡象，特別是考慮到加密貨幣作為流動性敏感資產的地位以及當前的宏觀經濟狀況。

A recent tweet by @The0xReport speculates that BTC price might grind lower into the $70,000-$80,000 range due to tightening global liquidity conditions. The accompanying chart showed Bitcoin’s price closely following trends in the global M2 money supply, albeit with a lag of about 10 weeks.

@The0xReport 最近的一條推文推測，由於全球流動性狀況收緊，比特幣價格可能會跌至 70,000 美元至 80,000 美元的區間。隨附的圖表顯示，比特幣的價格密切關注全球 M2 貨幣供應的趨勢，儘管存在約 10 週的延遲。

The recent plateau in M2 supply coincides with Bitcoin’s sharp pullback from $100,000 to $92,500, suggesting diminishing liquidity is playing a key role in the cryptocurrency’s decline. The tweet highlights how BTC price tends to reflect broader liquidity trends.

最近 M2 供應量趨於平穩，恰逢比特幣從 100,000 美元大幅回調至 92,500 美元，這表明流動性的減少在加密貨幣的下跌中發揮了關鍵作用。該推文強調了比特幣價格如何反映更廣泛的流動性趨勢。

Historical patterns also support this analysis. According to MacroMicro, Bitcoin has performed well during periods of rapid M2 expansion, such as 2020-2021, when central banks injected record levels of liquidity into the global economy to offset the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This surge in liquidity fueled speculative investment, driving BTC prices to new highs.

歷史模式也支持這項分析。 MacroMicro 表示，比特幣在 M2 快速擴張時期表現良好，例如 2020-2021 年，當時各國央行向全球經濟注入了創紀錄水平的流動性，以抵消 COVID-19 大流行的影響。流動性的激增刺激了投機性投資，推動比特幣價格創下新高。

However, as central banks began tightening monetary policies in 2022, reducing M2 growth, Bitcoin entered a prolonged bear market phase. The price action reinforces the narrative that the token’s price trajectory is closely linked to global liquidity dynamics.

然而，隨著各國央行在2022年開始收緊貨幣政策，降低M2成長速度，比特幣進入了漫長的熊市階段。價格走勢強化了這樣的說法：代幣的價格軌跡與全球流動性動態密切相關。

Currently, the M2 money supply remains stagnant, reflecting a continuation of restrictive monetary policies by major central banks. This has reduced speculative capital flows into assets like Bitcoin, increasing the likelihood of a deeper correction. The projected consolidation zone of $70,000-$80,000 corresponds with historical price levels observed during previous liquidity contractions.

目前，M2貨幣供給量仍處於停滯狀態，反映出主要央行持續實施緊縮性貨幣政策。這減少了流入比特幣等資產的投機資本，增加了更深層調整的可能性。預計 70,000 美元至 80,000 美元的盤整區域與先前流動性收縮期間觀察到的歷史價格水準相對應。

As central banks show no signs of loosening policies, the token’s performance will likely remain subdued in the short to medium term, reflecting its dependence on global liquidity trends.

由於央行沒有顯示出放鬆政策的跡象，該代幣的表現可能在中短期內保持低迷，反映出其對全球流動性趨勢的依賴。