Bitget Token（BGB）價格預測：為何BGB暴漲470%後可能回落？

儘管加密貨幣行業的聖誕老人反彈仍然難以捉摸，但 Bitget 代幣價格本週繼續飆升。

Bitget Token (BGB) price soared to a high of $4.97 this week, continuing its impressive rally even as the broader crypto market showed mixed performance. The BGB token rallied by over 470% from its lowest level this year.

Bitget Token（BGB）價格本週飆升至 4.97 美元的高位，儘管更廣泛的加密貨幣市場表現參差不齊，但仍繼續其令人印象深刻的漲勢。 BGB 代幣從今年的最低水準上漲了 470% 以上。

It is hard to tell the reason for this surge, but it could be linked to the rising market share of the crypto exchange. According to CoinGecko, Bitget became the eighth largest exchange in the crypto industry, handling over $91 billion in volume last month.

很難說出這種激增的原因，但這可能與加密貨幣交易所市場份額的上升有關。據 CoinGecko 稱，Bitget 成為加密貨幣行業第八大交易所，上個月處理的交易量超過 910 億美元。

On-chain data showed that the surging BGB price attracted some Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) as the number of active addresses rose. The 30-day active addresses rose to almost 200, up from less than 100 in October.

鏈上數據顯示，隨著活躍地址數量的增加，BGB 價格的飆升引發了一些「錯過恐懼症」(FOMO)。 30 天活躍地址從 10 月的少於 100 個增加到近 200 個。

Bitget Token price MVRV indicator surges

Bitget Token價格MVRV指標飆升

There are several reasons why the BGB price might drop in the coming days. First, the token appears to have entered the markup phase of the Wyckoff Method. This phase occurs after a prolonged period of accumulation, which lasted over two years in this case. It is typically characterized by higher supply than demand, followed by distribution and markdown.

BGB 價格在未來幾天可能下跌的原因有很多。首先，代幣似乎已經進入威科夫方法的標記階段。這個階段發生在長時間的累積之後，在本例中持續了兩年多。它的典型特徵是供應高於需求，然後是分銷和降價。

Second, IntoTheBlock data shows that the market value to realized value has risen to a record high of 9.83. This widely used indicator compares a cryptocurrency’s market value and realized value, then calculates the standard deviation.

其次，IntoTheBlock數據顯示，市值與已實現價值之比已升至9.83的歷史新高。這種廣泛使用的指標比較加密貨幣的市場價值和實現價值，然後計算標準差。

As we covered with Bitcoin, an asset is typically considered overbought when the MVRV indicator rises above 3.8. In BGB’s case, this figure stands at 9.83, indicating extreme overbought conditions that could trigger a pullback.

正如我們介紹的比特幣，當 MVRV 指標升至 3.8 以上時，資產通常被視為超買。就 BGB 而言，該數字為 9.83，表明極端超買狀況可能會引發回檔。

BGB is overbought, mean reversion possible

BGB 超買，平均值可能反轉

Moreover, the BGB price could decline due to the coin becoming significantly overbought. The Relative Strength Index has reached an extreme overbought level of 82, and the two lines of the Stochastic Oscillator are approaching 100.

此外，由於 BGB 幣嚴重超買，其價格可能會下跌。相對強弱指數已達到82的極端超買水平，隨機振盪指標的兩條線正逼近100。

Furthermore, it trades at a substantial premium to the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages. It is around 88% above the 50-day MA, suggesting that the concept of mean reversion could come into play. This is a concept where an asset often drops to the moving average after deviating for so long. This is especially relevant considering that the standard deviation has reached its highest level this year.

此外，它的交易價格遠高於 50 日和 100 日指數移動平均線。它比 50 日均線高 88% 左右，表明均值回歸的概念可能會發揮作用。這是一個資產在偏離這麼長時間後通常會跌至移動平均線的概念。考慮到標準差已達到今年的最高水平，這一點尤其重要。

Thus, as we’ve seen with other popular coins that went parabolic, like Ripple and Stellar, it is likely that this will be followed by a sharp reversal soon as investors cash out their gains.

因此，正如我們看到的其他流行的拋物線代幣，如瑞波幣和恆星幣，一旦投資者兌現收益，價格很可能會出現急劇逆轉。