Bitget Token（BGB）价格预测：为何BGB暴涨470%后可能回落？

尽管加密货币行业的圣诞老人反弹仍然难以捉摸，但 Bitget 代币价格本周继续飙升。

Bitget Token (BGB) price soared to a high of $4.97 this week, continuing its impressive rally even as the broader crypto market showed mixed performance. The BGB token rallied by over 470% from its lowest level this year.

Bitget Token（BGB）价格本周飙升至 4.97 美元的高位，尽管更广泛的加密货币市场表现参差不齐，但仍继续其令人印象深刻的涨势。 BGB 代币从今年的最低水平上涨了 470% 以上。

It is hard to tell the reason for this surge, but it could be linked to the rising market share of the crypto exchange. According to CoinGecko, Bitget became the eighth largest exchange in the crypto industry, handling over $91 billion in volume last month.

很难说出这种激增的原因，但这可能与加密货币交易所市场份额的上升有关。据 CoinGecko 称，Bitget 成为加密货币行业第八大交易所，上个月处理的交易量超过 910 亿美元。

On-chain data showed that the surging BGB price attracted some Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) as the number of active addresses rose. The 30-day active addresses rose to almost 200, up from less than 100 in October.

链上数据显示，随着活跃地址数量的增加，BGB 价格的飙升引发了一些“错过恐惧症”(FOMO)。 30 天活跃地址从 10 月份的不足 100 个增至近 200 个。

Bitget Token price MVRV indicator surges

Bitget Token价格MVRV指标飙升

There are several reasons why the BGB price might drop in the coming days. First, the token appears to have entered the markup phase of the Wyckoff Method. This phase occurs after a prolonged period of accumulation, which lasted over two years in this case. It is typically characterized by higher supply than demand, followed by distribution and markdown.

BGB 价格在未来几天可能下跌的原因有多种。首先，代币似乎已经进入威科夫方法的标记阶段。这个阶段发生在长时间的积累之后，在本例中持续了两年多。它的典型特征是供应高于需求，然后是分销和降价。

Second, IntoTheBlock data shows that the market value to realized value has risen to a record high of 9.83. This widely used indicator compares a cryptocurrency’s market value and realized value, then calculates the standard deviation.

其次，IntoTheBlock数据显示，市值与已实现价值之比已升至9.83的历史新高。这种广泛使用的指标比较加密货币的市场价值和实现价值，然后计算标准差。

As we covered with Bitcoin, an asset is typically considered overbought when the MVRV indicator rises above 3.8. In BGB’s case, this figure stands at 9.83, indicating extreme overbought conditions that could trigger a pullback.

正如我们介绍的比特币，当 MVRV 指标升至 3.8 以上时，资产通常被视为超买。就 BGB 而言，该数字为 9.83，表明极端超买状况可能会引发回调。

BGB is overbought, mean reversion possible

BGB 超买，均值可能反转

Moreover, the BGB price could decline due to the coin becoming significantly overbought. The Relative Strength Index has reached an extreme overbought level of 82, and the two lines of the Stochastic Oscillator are approaching 100.

此外，由于 BGB 币严重超买，其价格可能会下跌。相对强弱指数已达到82的极端超买水平，随机振荡指标的两条线正逼近100。

Furthermore, it trades at a substantial premium to the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages. It is around 88% above the 50-day MA, suggesting that the concept of mean reversion could come into play. This is a concept where an asset often drops to the moving average after deviating for so long. This is especially relevant considering that the standard deviation has reached its highest level this year.

此外，它的交易价格远高于 50 日和 100 日指数移动平均线。它比 50 日均线高 88% 左右，表明均值回归的概念可能会发挥作用。这是一个资产在偏离这么长时间后通常会跌至移动平均线的概念。考虑到标准差已达到今年的最高水平，这一点尤其重要。

Thus, as we’ve seen with other popular coins that went parabolic, like Ripple and Stellar, it is likely that this will be followed by a sharp reversal soon as investors cash out their gains.

因此，正如我们看到的其他流行的抛物线代币，如 Ripple 和 Stellar，一旦投资者兑现收益，价格很可能会出现急剧逆转。