美國大選會改變加密貨幣嗎？也許吧，但 TradFi 巨頭無論如何都可能會繼續前進

就在本週，在選舉日之前，宣布了一些大型金融項目——這表明人們不必擔心前方的道路。

As the U.S. presidential election nears its conclusion, crypto traders are speculating on how the outcome will impact digital asset prices, at least in the short term. Many believe that a Donald Trump victory would be positive for crypto prices, while a win by Kamala Harris would be negative.

隨著美國總統大選接近尾聲，加密貨幣交易者正在猜測選舉結果將如何影響數位資產價格，至少在短期內是如此。許多人認為，唐納德·川普的勝利將對加密貨幣價格產生積極影響，而卡馬拉·哈里斯的勝利將對加密貨幣價格產生負面影響。

However, large financial institutions appear to be looking past the short-term market action and viewing the election as a temporary catalyst that won't derail the adoption of crypto and blockchain technology over the long haul.

然而，大型金融機構似乎忽略了短期市場行為，並將選舉視為暫時的催化劑，不會阻礙加密貨幣和區塊鏈技術的長期採用。

“Adoption of digital assets at the institutional level will very much continue globally no matter who wins the election," said Phillip Shoemaker, executive director of Identity.com, a non-profit organization providing decentralized identity verification.

提供去中心化身份驗證的非營利組織 Identity.com 的執行董事 Phillip Shoemaker 表示：“無論誰贏得選舉，全球機構層面對數位資產的採用都將繼續下去。”

Several positive developments on that front have emerged this week amid the cacophony leading up to Tuesday's election. Swift – the TradFi interbank messaging system – partnered with UBS and Chainlink to test allowing digital asset transactions to settle with fiat payment systems across more than 11,500 financial institutions in over 200 countries and territories.

在周二選舉前的喧囂聲中，本週在這方面出現了一些積極的進展。 Swift（TradFi 銀行間訊息傳遞系統）與 UBS 和 Chainlink 合作，測試允許數位資產交易透過 200 多個國家和地區 11,500 多家金融機構的法定支付系統進行結算。

Meanwhile, Citigroup and Fidelity International developed a proof-of-concept for an on-chain money-market fund that includes a digital foreign exchange swap.

同時，花旗集團和富達國際開發了一種鏈上貨幣市場基金的概念驗證，其中包括數位外匯互換。

That's just this week, building on many other similar stories throughout the year. The point is: Firms such as Swift and Citigroup would be unlikely to announce such things if they feared this week's elections were likely to kill these initiatives.

這只是本週的事，是在全年許多其他類似故事的基礎上發生的。關鍵是：如果斯威夫特和花旗集團等公司擔心本週的選舉可能會扼殺這些舉措，那麼它們就不太可能宣布這類事情。

That said, there is a catch. The question isn't whether the election result will stop the adoption; it's whether it will affect timing.

也就是說，有一個問題。問題不在於選舉結果是否會阻止採用；而是在於。是會不會影響時間。

"It’s pretty clear to me that the outcome of the election will have a significant impact on the pace of such adoption," said Shoemaker. "If Trump were to win, I think we’d see a flurry of new ETFs in the United States for a wider variety of digital assets. We’d also see an acceleration in the use of stablecoins for payments, along with more and more corporations incorporating digital assets in one way or another into their strategies," he said.

「我很清楚，選舉結果將對這種採用的速度產生重大影響，」舒梅克說。 「如果川普獲勝，我認為我們會在美國看到一系列針對更廣泛數位資產的新 ETF。我們還會看到穩定幣用於支付的加速，以及越來越多的穩定幣的使用。公司以某種方式將數位資產納入其策略，」他說。

Echoing his sentiment, Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO Network, the world’s first blockchain geospatial oracle network, said: "If pro-crypto candidates win out in these elections, then we would see not only broader institutional adoption in the United States but also international organizations like the IMF and World Bank really warming up to crypto in a way that we just haven’t seen yet."

全球首個區塊鏈地理空間預言機網路XYO Network 聯合創始人馬庫斯·萊文(Markus Levin) 呼應了他的觀點：「如果支持加密貨幣的候選人在這些選舉中獲勝，那麼我們不僅會看到美國更廣泛的機構採用，國際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行等國際組織也以我們從未見過的方式真正熱衷於加密貨幣。

On the other hand, a Harris win may slow down the pace of adoption due to a more restrictive regulatory regime. (The Biden administration that she's served in since 2021 has tended to be highly restrictive on crypto.) "If Harris were to win, I still think institutional adoption would happen. But it would happen more gradually," said Levin, pointing out that the Democrats are slowly coming around to crypto, including Harris herself, which means "it will just take more time for growing this Democratic support for the industry to have a material impact on the broader crypto market.”

另一方面，由於監管制度更加嚴格，哈里斯的勝利可能會減緩採用的步伐。 （她自 2021 年以來任職的拜登政府往往對加密貨幣採取嚴格限制。）「如果哈里斯獲勝，我仍然認為機構採用將會發生。但它會逐漸發生，」萊文說，並指出包括哈里斯本人在內的民主黨人正在慢慢轉向加密貨幣，這意味著“民主黨對加密貨幣行業的支持需要更多時間才能對更廣泛的加密貨幣市場產生實質性影響。”

Both points resonate. It wasn't long ago that the crypto industry was drowning in not only an unrelenting crypto winter but also intense regulatory crackdowns. In the wake of FTX's spectacular implosion, many wondered whether something dubbed "Operation Choke Point 2.0" — an alleged coordinated effort by the Biden administration to cut the cryptocurrency industry off from the U.S. banking sector — was in action. Many industry players took their businesses out of the U.S. and set up shop overseas.

這兩點都有共鳴。不久前，加密產業不僅陷入了無情的加密寒冬，還陷入了嚴厲的監管打壓。在FTX 發生驚人的內爆之後，許多人想知道所謂的「阻塞點行動2.0」——據稱是拜登政府為切斷加密貨幣行業與美國銀行業的聯繫而採取的協調行動——是否正在採取行動。許多業內人士將業務撤出美國，在海外開店。

It wasn't until recently—albeit after Trump's endorsement of the industry this year—that this sentiment started to shift slightly among the Democrats, leading to a softer stance on the sector. However, Gensler will continue to remain a question mark for the Democrats, given his tough stance on crypto, despite the call for his replacement by even Democratic crypto voters.

直到最近——儘管是在川普今年對該行業的認可之後——民主黨人的這種情緒才開始略有轉變，導致對該行業的立場變得更加溫和。然而，鑑於 Gensler 對加密貨幣的強硬立場，儘管民主黨加密貨幣選民也呼籲更換他，但鑑於他對加密貨幣的強硬立場，Gensler 將繼續成為民主黨的問號。

Also, large institutions crave regulatory clarity. So if Harris wins, the uncertainty around how she really feels about crypto might make them a bit cautious about their exposure to the industry. "The current market data suggests that institutional investors are particularly sensitive to regulatory clarity, and a Harris administration would need to change their historical stance to provide the predictability they seek," said Brian Dixon, CEO of Off the Chain Capital.

此外，大型機構渴望監管的明確性。因此，如果哈里斯獲勝，她對加密貨幣的真實感受的不確定性可能會讓他們對該行業的投資持謹慎態度。 Off the Chain Capital 執行長 Brian Dixon 表示：「目前的市場數據表明，機構投資者對監管的明確性特別敏感，哈里斯政府需要改變他們的歷史立場，以提供他們所尋求的可預測性。

"Institutional adoption under Harris could follow a more conventional path, with an emphasis on compliance and integration with existing financial infrastructure," he added, noting that a Trump win, on the other hand, will "catalyze" more dramatic market moves.

他補充說：「哈里斯領導下的機構採用可能會遵循更傳統的道路，重點是遵守和與現有金融基礎設施的整合。」他指出，另一方面，川普的勝利將「催化”更戲劇性的市場走勢。

With election results coming in the hours or days ahead, it's easy to get bogged down in the short-term debate around how the outcomes will change the crypto landscape. However, zooming out, it's worth noting that despite many turbulent market conditions and regulatory roller coasters, the digital assets industry has continued to advance and gained not just more crypto supporters but the attention of giant traditional institutions.

隨著選舉結果在未來幾小時或幾天內公佈，很容易陷入選舉結果將如何改變加密貨幣格局的短期辯論。然而，值得注意的是，儘管市場環境動盪，監管過山車不斷，但數位資產行業仍在持續發展，不僅贏得了更多的加密貨幣支持者，還獲得了大型傳統機構的關注。

The value

價值