特朗普就职前美元下跌，比特币创历史新高，投资者关注政策公告

周一，在唐纳德·特朗普就任美国总统之前，美元下跌，比特币创下历史新高

The US dollar fell on Monday while bitcoin hit an all-time high ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration as US president later in the session, with investors focusing on policy announcements that could immediately affect the greenback.

美元周一下跌，而在唐纳德·特朗普稍后就任美国总统之前，比特币创下历史新高，投资者关注可能立即影响美元的政策公告。

The yen strengthened, clinging to a one-month high touched on Friday, as traders wager that the Bank of Japan will hike its policy interest rate this week.

由于交易员押注日本央行本周将加息，日元走强，守住周五触及的一个月高位。

Trading volume was expected to be thin due to the US markets being closed for the Martin Luther King Jr Day holiday.

由于美国市场因马丁·路德·金日假期休市，交易量预计将清淡。

Softer US inflation data and the prospect of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts have recently boosted risk assets, including bitcoin, which hit a record high on Monday at US$109,071.86 (HK$848,978.62) and was last up 4.2 percent at US$108,025.

美国通胀数据疲软以及美联储多次降息的前景最近提振了包括比特币在内的风险资产，比特币周一创下历史新高至109,071.86美元（848,978.62港元），最后上涨4.2%至108,025美元。

Trump has promised to be a "crypto president," and is expected to issue executive orders aimed at promoting widespread adoption of digital assets.

特朗普承诺成为“加密货币总统”，预计将发布旨在促进数字资产广泛采用的行政命令。

Some analysts now feared delays in the US Administration implementing measures could trigger a "sell the news" reaction, potentially disrupting the positive momentum.

一些分析人士现在担心，美国政府推迟实施措施可能会引发“抛售消息”反应，从而可能破坏积极势头。

Investors' attention was firmly fixed on the policies Trump will enact on his first day in office.

投资者的注意力牢牢集中在特朗普上任第一天将颁布的政策上。

At a rally on Sunday, Trump said he would impose severe limits on immigration.

在周日的一次集会上，特朗普表示他将对移民实施严格限制。

Goldman Sachs strategists expect US policy changes to support US dollar strength, but cautioned about near-term risks due to the market's expectations for swift action on tariffs.

高盛策略师预计美国政策变化将支撑美元走强，但由于市场预期迅速采取关税行动，因此对近期风险发出警告。

The US dollar index, which measures the US currency against six peers, was 0.32 percent lower at 109.08. It hit last week a 26-month high of 110.17.

衡量美元兑六种货币的美元指数下跌 0.32%，至 109.08。上周触及26个月高点110.17。

It has risen 4 percent since the November presidential election as traders anticipate Trump's policies will boost growth and inflation.

自 11 月总统大选以来，该指数已上涨 4%，因为交易员预计特朗普的政策将提振经济增长和通胀。

"There are high expectations of Trump announcing trade tariffs under executive order along with many other policy announcements that could prompt further US dollar gains," said Derek Halpenny, head of research global markets at MUFG.

三菱日联金融集团(MUFG)全球市场研究主管德里克·哈尔彭尼(Derek Halpenny)表示，“人们对特朗普根据行政命令宣布贸易关税以及许多其他可能推动美元进一步上涨的政策公告抱有很高的期望。”

The euro advanced 0.39 percent to US$1.031, but remained near a two-year low touched last week as tariff threats weighed.

欧元兑美元上涨0.39%至1.031美元，但由于关税威胁的影响，欧元兑美元仍接近上周触及的两年低点。

"If International Emergency Economic Powers Act is invoked for trade, markets should see that as a strong statement of intent that the US is planning large-scale tariffs," said Sjay Rajadhyaksha, research analyst at Barclays, after assessing what announcements could immediately affect markets.

巴克莱银行研究分析师 Sjay Rajadhyaksha 在评估了哪些公告可能立即影响市场后表示：“如果在贸易方面援引《国际紧急经济权力法》，市场应该将其视为美国计划征收大规模关税的强烈意图声明。” 。

IEEPA is a federal law in the US that grants the president the authority to regulate economic transactions in response to unusual and extraordinary threats.

IEEPA 是美国的一项联邦法律，授予总统监管经济交易以应对异常威胁的权力。

On the fiscal front, "we will be watching to see if President Trump mentions fiscal stimulus," Rajadhyaksha said.

在财政方面，“我们将关注特朗普总统是否提到财政刺激措施，”拉贾迪亚克沙说。

The yen was last at 156.11 per US dollar, not far from the one-month high of 154.98 touched on Friday, with sources telling Reuters the BOJ was likely to raise its policy interest rate this week barring market shocks when Trump takes office.

日元兑美元汇率最新报156.11，距离上周五触及的一个月高点154.98不远，消息人士告诉路透，除非特朗普上任后市场出现冲击，日本央行可能会在本周上调政策利率。

Governor Kazuo Ueda and his deputy said last week the central bank would debate whether to hike, signalling an intention to take borrowing costs higher at a Jan. 23-24 policy meeting.

行长上田一夫及其副行长上周表示，央行将讨论是否加息，暗示有意在 1 月 23 日至 24 日的政策会议上提高借贷成本。

A hike by the BOJ would be the first since last July, when the move, coupled with weak U.S. jobs data, shocked traders and triggered a global market rout in early August.

日本央行加息将是自去年 7 月以来的首次加息，当时此举加上疲软的美国就业数据震惊了交易员，并引发了 8 月初的全球市场暴跌。

Investors will focus on clues for the rate outlook as money markets pricing implied an 80 percent chance of a 25 basis points rate hike and 50bps by year-end.

投资者将关注利率前景的线索，因为货币市场定价暗示年底加息 25 个基点和 50 个基点的可能性为 80%。

HSBC's chief Asia economist Fred Neumann said economic data in Japan suggested that monetary policy normalization was certainly warranted this year.

汇丰银行首席亚洲经济学家 Fred Neumann 表示，日本的经济数据表明，今年货币政策正常化肯定是有必要的。

The BOJ should have raised rates in December, said Neumann at HSBC's outlook event in Singapore. "So we think it's now good to do this (hike rates).”

诺伊曼在新加坡汇丰银行展望活动中表示，日本央行应该在 12 月加息。 “所以我们认为现在这样做（加息）是件好事。”

Investors were also monitoring developments in the Middle East after Hamas released three Israeli hostages and Israel freed 90 Palestinian prisoners on Sunday, marking the first day

周日，哈马斯释放了三名以色列人质，以色列释放了 90 名巴勒斯坦囚犯，投资者也在关注中东的事态发展。

of a ceasefire halting a 15-month-old war.

停火协议结束了长达 15 个月的战争。