川普就職前美元下跌，比特幣創歷史新高，投資人關注政策公告

週一，在唐納德·川普就任美國總統之前，美元下跌，比特幣創下歷史新高

The US dollar fell on Monday while bitcoin hit an all-time high ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration as US president later in the session, with investors focusing on policy announcements that could immediately affect the greenback.

美元週一下跌，而在唐納德·川普稍後就任美國總統之前，比特幣創下歷史新高，投資者關注可能立即影響美元的政策公告。

The yen strengthened, clinging to a one-month high touched on Friday, as traders wager that the Bank of Japan will hike its policy interest rate this week.

由於交易員押注日本央行本週將升息，日圓走強，守住週五觸及的一個月高點。

Trading volume was expected to be thin due to the US markets being closed for the Martin Luther King Jr Day holiday.

由於美國市場因馬丁路德金日假期休市，交易量預計將清淡。

Softer US inflation data and the prospect of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts have recently boosted risk assets, including bitcoin, which hit a record high on Monday at US$109,071.86 (HK$848,978.62) and was last up 4.2 percent at US$108,025.

美國通膨數據疲軟以及聯準會多次降息的前景最近提振了包括比特幣在內的風險資產，比特幣週一創下歷史新高至109,071.86美元（848,978.62港元），最後上漲4.2%至108,025美元。

Trump has promised to be a "crypto president," and is expected to issue executive orders aimed at promoting widespread adoption of digital assets.

川普承諾成為“加密貨幣總統”，預計將發布旨在促進數位資產廣泛採用的行政命令。

Some analysts now feared delays in the US Administration implementing measures could trigger a "sell the news" reaction, potentially disrupting the positive momentum.

一些分析人士現在擔心，美國政府推遲實施措施可能會引發「拋售消息」反應，這可能會破壞積極勢頭。

Investors' attention was firmly fixed on the policies Trump will enact on his first day in office.

投資人的注意力牢牢集中在川普上任第一天將頒布的政策上。

At a rally on Sunday, Trump said he would impose severe limits on immigration.

在周日的一次集會上，川普表示他將對移民實施嚴格限制。

Goldman Sachs strategists expect US policy changes to support US dollar strength, but cautioned about near-term risks due to the market's expectations for swift action on tariffs.

高盛策略師預計美國政策變化將支撐美元走強，但由於市場預期迅速採取關稅行動，因此對近期風險發出警告。

The US dollar index, which measures the US currency against six peers, was 0.32 percent lower at 109.08. It hit last week a 26-month high of 110.17.

衡量美元兌六種貨幣的美元指數下跌 0.32%，至 109.08。上週觸及26個月高點110.17。

It has risen 4 percent since the November presidential election as traders anticipate Trump's policies will boost growth and inflation.

自 11 月總統大選以來，該指數已上漲 4%，因為交易員預計川普的政策將提振經濟成長和通膨。

"There are high expectations of Trump announcing trade tariffs under executive order along with many other policy announcements that could prompt further US dollar gains," said Derek Halpenny, head of research global markets at MUFG.

三菱日聯金融集團(MUFG)全球市場研究主管德里克·哈爾彭尼(Derek Halpenny)表示，「人們對川普根據行政命令宣布貿易關稅以及許多其他可能推動美元進一步上漲的政策公告抱有很高的期望。

The euro advanced 0.39 percent to US$1.031, but remained near a two-year low touched last week as tariff threats weighed.

歐元兌美元上漲0.39%至1.031美元，但由於關稅威脅的影響，歐元兌美元仍接近上週觸及的兩年低點。

"If International Emergency Economic Powers Act is invoked for trade, markets should see that as a strong statement of intent that the US is planning large-scale tariffs," said Sjay Rajadhyaksha, research analyst at Barclays, after assessing what announcements could immediately affect markets.

巴克萊銀行研究分析師Sjay Rajadhyaksha 在評估了哪些公告可能立即影響市場後表示：「如果在貿易方面引用《國際緊急經濟權力法》，市場應該將其視為美國計劃徵收大規模關稅的強烈意圖聲明。

IEEPA is a federal law in the US that grants the president the authority to regulate economic transactions in response to unusual and extraordinary threats.

IEEPA 是美國的聯邦法律，授予總統監管經濟交易以應對不尋常和異常威脅的權力。

On the fiscal front, "we will be watching to see if President Trump mentions fiscal stimulus," Rajadhyaksha said.

在財政方面，「我們將關注川普總統是否提到財政刺激措施，」拉賈迪亞克沙說。

The yen was last at 156.11 per US dollar, not far from the one-month high of 154.98 touched on Friday, with sources telling Reuters the BOJ was likely to raise its policy interest rate this week barring market shocks when Trump takes office.

日圓兌美元匯率最新報156.11，距離上週五觸及的一個月高點154.98不遠，消息人士告訴路透，除非川普上任後市場出現衝擊，日本央行可能會在本週上調政策利率。

Governor Kazuo Ueda and his deputy said last week the central bank would debate whether to hike, signalling an intention to take borrowing costs higher at a Jan. 23-24 policy meeting.

行長上田一夫及其副行長上週表示，央行將討論是否升息，暗示有意在 1 月 23 日至 24 日的政策會議上提高借貸成本。

A hike by the BOJ would be the first since last July, when the move, coupled with weak U.S. jobs data, shocked traders and triggered a global market rout in early August.

日本央行升息將是自去年 7 月以來的首次升息，當時此舉加上疲軟的美國就業數據震驚了交易員，並引發了 8 月初的全球市場暴跌。

Investors will focus on clues for the rate outlook as money markets pricing implied an 80 percent chance of a 25 basis points rate hike and 50bps by year-end.

投資者將關注利率前景的線索，因為貨幣市場定價意味著年底升息 25 個基點和 50 個基點的可能性為 80%。

HSBC's chief Asia economist Fred Neumann said economic data in Japan suggested that monetary policy normalization was certainly warranted this year.

匯豐銀行首席亞洲經濟學家 Fred Neumann 表示，日本的經濟數據表明，今年貨幣政策正常化肯定是必要的。

The BOJ should have raised rates in December, said Neumann at HSBC's outlook event in Singapore. "So we think it's now good to do this (hike rates).”

諾伊曼在新加坡匯豐銀行展望活動中表示，日本央行應該在 12 月升息。 “所以我們認為現在這樣做（加息）是件好事。”

Investors were also monitoring developments in the Middle East after Hamas released three Israeli hostages and Israel freed 90 Palestinian prisoners on Sunday, marking the first day

週日，哈馬斯釋放了三名以色列人質，以色列釋放了 90 名巴勒斯坦囚犯，投資者也關注中東的發展。

of a ceasefire halting a 15-month-old war.

停火協議結束了長達 15 個月的戰爭。