解码Wintermute模式：做市商如何操纵Altcoin价格以降落在1级交易所上

如果您发现$ Griffain继续下降并想知道何时稳定，则可以分析“ Wintermute模式”。

Author: @dittochu_

作者：@dittochu_

Compiler: @GodotSancho

编译器：@godotsancho

If you find that $griffain continues to fall and want to know when it will stabilize, you can analyze the "Wintermute Pattern".

如果您发现$ Griffain继续下降并想知道何时稳定，则可以分析“ Wintermute模式”。

Wintermute is a crypto asset market maker, and one of their important businesses is to help small projects (Alts) land on first-tier platforms (such as Binance). Some investors have found that when Wintermute participates in market making for a project, the price of the currency often shows a specific trend, which is called the "Wintermute mode."

Wintermute是一家加密资产做市商，其重要业务之一是帮助小型项目（Alts）在第一层平台上（例如Binance）。一些投资者发现，当Wintermute参与项目的市场制定时，货币的价格通常显示出一种特定的趋势，这被称为“ Wintermute Mode”。

Why does the Wintermute market-making project usually fall first and then rise? To answer this question, we need to understand its trading strategy.

为什么冬季营销项目通常会首先下降然后上升？要回答这个问题，我们需要了解其交易策略。

Wintermute adopts a Delta Neutral strategy (Delta Neutral means eliminating token volatility risk through hedging) to avoid directional trading. In the process of market making, they often reach an agreement with existing token holders, borrow coins from project parties or whales, and buy call options at the same time to profit when prices rise.

Wintermute采用了Delta中性策略（Delta中性手段通过对冲消除令牌波动风险），以避免方向交易。在市场开展过程中，他们经常与现有的代币持有人达成协议，从项目派对或鲸鱼那里借硬币，并同时购买呼叫选项，以便在价格上涨时获利。

Take $griffain as an example, assuming that 40 million tokens are borrowed, which is equivalent to 4% of the total token supply. Then, they will sell part of the $griffain and exchange it for SOL or stablecoins to provide liquidity. In essence, this is a short-selling operation, which makes a profit by borrowing tokens and selling them.

以$ Griffain为例，假设借了4000万个令牌，相当于占代币供应总额的4％。然后，他们将出售一部分$ Griffain，并将其换成Sol或Stablecoins提供流动性。从本质上讲，这是一个卖空的操作，它通过借用令牌和出售它们来获利。

The tokens are sold and the price drops. Wintermute will buy back $griffain at a lower price because they will need to return the borrowed tokens later, that is, close their short position. At the same time, they avoid causing large price fluctuations when covering transactions. Thus, they make money during the price drop.

代币被出售，价格下跌。 Wintermute将以较低的价格回购$ Griffain，因为他们需要稍后退还借用的代币，也就是说，即将结束他们的短位置。同时，他们避免在交易时造成较大的价格波动。因此，他们在价格下跌期间赚钱。

When the price dropped, over the past few days they have been buying back $griffain in small amounts of $150 at a time, executing dozens of orders per minute.

当价格下降时，在过去的几天中，他们每次以少量$ 150的价格回购$ Griffain，每分钟执行数十个订单。

Eventually, Wintermute buys back all the $griffain that was previously borrowed. When the buyback is complete, the price will rebound. They make a profit from the short sale, and this profit may also be used to pay the exchange listing fees. By this stage, the trading volume of $griffain will also increase significantly, which will help convince exchanges to list it.

最终，Wintermute购买了所有以前借的$ Griffain。回购完成后，价格将反弹。他们从卖空中获利，这笔利润也可以用于支付交换上市费用。到这个阶段，$ Griffain的交易量也将大大增加，这将有助于说服交易所列出它。

When $griffain is listed on a first-tier platform, such as Binance, the price will skyrocket. Back to the initial mention of buying call options (Call Option). The strike price of these options is usually 25% to 50% higher than the market borrow price. But recently, due to market maker operations, the strike price has been pushed up to 60% to 70% of the borrow price.

当$ Griffain在Binance等一流平台上列出时，价格将飙升。回到最初提及购买通话选项（呼叫选项）。这些期权的罢工价格通常比市场借贷价格高25％至50％。但是最近，由于做市商的运营，罢工价格已被推高达借贷价格的60％至70％。

So let’s look at the on-chain data. First, we’ll try to determine where Wintermute is in the so-called “Wintermute mode”.

因此，让我们看一下链上的数据。首先，我们将尝试确定Wintermute在所谓的“ Wintermute模式”中的位置。

One of the tools we can use here is Agent Scarlett ($agency). This is a $3 million project invested by ai16z and ElizaOS, and currently has one of the best on-chain analysis capabilities on the market. Although there are some places where you can use this tool for free, for now I will use the tool in the ai16z Discord public channel.

我们在这里可以使用的工具之一是Scarlett Agent Scarlett（$代理商）。这是AI16Z和Elizaos投资的300万美元项目，目前拥有市场上最好的链上分析能力之一。尽管在某些地方可以免费使用此工具，但现在我将在AI16Z Discord Public Channel中使用该工具。

Using the Scarlett tool, we can see that Wintermute has begun to re-accumulate $griffain. Using the Solscan data, we can also see that Wintermute first intervened on January 23. This is exactly when $griffain recently peaked.

使用Scarlett工具，我们可以看到Wintermute已经开始重新占用$ Griffain。使用Solscan数据，我们还可以看到Wintermute首次在1月23日进行介入。这正是$ Griffain最近达到顶峰的时候。

https://solscan.io/tx/4uubnPQXwdo1bAehv64eBMS6D2waE8abdMukTsVLhWeju2WbVY8WRzxRp8cxqy2MVTw39trnQdRF1oerktYANg1T

https://solscan.io/tx/4uubnpqxwdo1baehv64ebms6d2wae8abdmuktsvlhweju2wbvy8wrzxrp8wwrzxrp8cxqy2mvtw39trnqdrf1drf1oerktyang1t

In summary, market makers are very smart and they make money both when prices fall and when they rise. When Wintermute intervenes, their market making behavior will disrupt price movements, but in exchange, your tokens may be listed on the first-tier exchanges.

总而言之，做市商非常聪明，当价格下跌和上涨时，他们都会赚钱。当Wintermute介入时，他们的市场制作行为将破坏价格变动，但是作为交换，您的令牌可能会在第一级交易所中列出。

Don’t forget the call options Wintermute has on $griffain. When they close their short, the first-tier exchanges will likely list $griffain. And in order for them to profit on the options, the price would need to rise 25% to 70% from the level they borrowed. The price on January 23rd was around $0.50. If the Wintermute pattern fully forms here, we could see $griffain prices reach $0.60 to $0.85 in a few weeks.

不要忘记Wintermute在$ Griffain上的电话选项。当他们结束短暂的交流时，一级交流可能会列出$ Griffain。为了使他们从期权上获利，价格将需要从借入的水平上涨25％至70％。 1月23日的价格约为0.50美元。如果在这里完全形成Wintermute模式，我们可以看到$ Griffain价格在几周内达到0.60至0.85美元。