解碼Wintermute模式：做市商如何操縱Altcoin價格以降落在1級交易所上

如果您發現$ Griffain繼續下降並想知道何時穩定，則可以分析“ Wintermute模式”。

Author: @dittochu_

作者：@dittochu_

Compiler: @GodotSancho

編譯器：@godotsancho

If you find that $griffain continues to fall and want to know when it will stabilize, you can analyze the "Wintermute Pattern".

如果您發現$ Griffain繼續下降並想知道何時穩定，則可以分析“ Wintermute模式”。

Wintermute is a crypto asset market maker, and one of their important businesses is to help small projects (Alts) land on first-tier platforms (such as Binance). Some investors have found that when Wintermute participates in market making for a project, the price of the currency often shows a specific trend, which is called the "Wintermute mode."

Wintermute是一家加密資產做市商，其重要業務之一是幫助小型項目（Alts）在第一層平台上（例如Binance）。一些投資者發現，當Wintermute參與項目的市場製定時，貨幣的價格通常顯示出一種特定的趨勢，這被稱為“ Wintermute Mode”。

Why does the Wintermute market-making project usually fall first and then rise? To answer this question, we need to understand its trading strategy.

為什麼冬季營銷項目通常會首先下降然後上升？要回答這個問題，我們需要了解其交易策略。

Wintermute adopts a Delta Neutral strategy (Delta Neutral means eliminating token volatility risk through hedging) to avoid directional trading. In the process of market making, they often reach an agreement with existing token holders, borrow coins from project parties or whales, and buy call options at the same time to profit when prices rise.

Wintermute採用了Delta中性策略（Delta中性手段通過對沖消除令牌波動風險），以避免方向交易。在市場開展過程中，他們經常與現有的代幣持有人達成協議，從項目派對或鯨魚那裡借硬幣，並同時購買呼叫選項，以便在價格上漲時獲利。

Take $griffain as an example, assuming that 40 million tokens are borrowed, which is equivalent to 4% of the total token supply. Then, they will sell part of the $griffain and exchange it for SOL or stablecoins to provide liquidity. In essence, this is a short-selling operation, which makes a profit by borrowing tokens and selling them.

以$ Griffain為例，假設借了4000萬個令牌，相當於佔代幣供應總額的4％。然後，他們將出售一部分$ Griffain，並將其換成Sol或Stablecoins提供流動性。從本質上講，這是一個賣空的操作，它通過借用令牌和出售它們來獲利。

The tokens are sold and the price drops. Wintermute will buy back $griffain at a lower price because they will need to return the borrowed tokens later, that is, close their short position. At the same time, they avoid causing large price fluctuations when covering transactions. Thus, they make money during the price drop.

代幣被出售，價格下跌。 Wintermute將以較低的價格回購$ Griffain，因為他們需要稍後退還借用的代幣，也就是說，即將結束他們的短位置。同時，他們避免在交易時造成較大的價格波動。因此，他們在價格下跌期間賺錢。

When the price dropped, over the past few days they have been buying back $griffain in small amounts of $150 at a time, executing dozens of orders per minute.

當價格下降時，在過去的幾天中，他們每次以少量$ 150的價格回購$ Griffain，每分鐘執行數十個訂單。

Eventually, Wintermute buys back all the $griffain that was previously borrowed. When the buyback is complete, the price will rebound. They make a profit from the short sale, and this profit may also be used to pay the exchange listing fees. By this stage, the trading volume of $griffain will also increase significantly, which will help convince exchanges to list it.

最終，Wintermute購買了所有以前借的$ Griffain。回購完成後，價格將反彈。他們從賣空中獲利，這筆利潤也可以用於支付交換上市費用。到這個階段，$ Griffain的交易量也將大大增加，這將有助於說服交易所列出它。

When $griffain is listed on a first-tier platform, such as Binance, the price will skyrocket. Back to the initial mention of buying call options (Call Option). The strike price of these options is usually 25% to 50% higher than the market borrow price. But recently, due to market maker operations, the strike price has been pushed up to 60% to 70% of the borrow price.

當$ Griffain在Binance等一流平台上列出時，價格將飆升。回到最初提及購買通話選項（呼叫選項）。這些期權的罷工價格通常比市場借貸價格高25％至50％。但是最近，由於做市商的運營，罷工價格已被推高達借貸價格的60％至70％。

So let’s look at the on-chain data. First, we’ll try to determine where Wintermute is in the so-called “Wintermute mode”.

因此，讓我們看一下鏈上的數據。首先，我們將嘗試確定Wintermute在所謂的“ Wintermute模式”中的位置。

One of the tools we can use here is Agent Scarlett ($agency). This is a $3 million project invested by ai16z and ElizaOS, and currently has one of the best on-chain analysis capabilities on the market. Although there are some places where you can use this tool for free, for now I will use the tool in the ai16z Discord public channel.

我們在這裡可以使用的工具之一是Scarlett Agent Scarlett（$代理商）。這是AI16Z和Elizaos投資的300萬美元項目，目前擁有市場上最好的鏈上分析能力之一。儘管在某些地方可以免費使用此工具，但現在我將在AI16Z Discord Public Channel中使用該工具。

Using the Scarlett tool, we can see that Wintermute has begun to re-accumulate $griffain. Using the Solscan data, we can also see that Wintermute first intervened on January 23. This is exactly when $griffain recently peaked.

使用Scarlett工具，我們可以看到Wintermute已經開始重新佔用$ Griffain。使用Solscan數據，我們還可以看到Wintermute首次在1月23日進行介入。這正是$ Griffain最近達到頂峰的時候。

https://solscan.io/tx/4uubnPQXwdo1bAehv64eBMS6D2waE8abdMukTsVLhWeju2WbVY8WRzxRp8cxqy2MVTw39trnQdRF1oerktYANg1T

https://solscan.io/tx/4uubnpqxwdo1baehv64ebms6d2wae8abdmuktsvlhweju2wbvy8wrzxrp8wwrzxrp8cxqy2mvtw39trnqdrf1drf1oerktyang1t

In summary, market makers are very smart and they make money both when prices fall and when they rise. When Wintermute intervenes, their market making behavior will disrupt price movements, but in exchange, your tokens may be listed on the first-tier exchanges.

總而言之，做市商非常聰明，當價格下跌和上漲時，他們都會賺錢。當Wintermute介入時，他們的市場製作行為將破壞價格變動，但是作為交換，您的令牌可能會在第一級交易所中列出。

Don’t forget the call options Wintermute has on $griffain. When they close their short, the first-tier exchanges will likely list $griffain. And in order for them to profit on the options, the price would need to rise 25% to 70% from the level they borrowed. The price on January 23rd was around $0.50. If the Wintermute pattern fully forms here, we could see $griffain prices reach $0.60 to $0.85 in a few weeks.

不要忘記Wintermute在$ Griffain上的電話選項。當他們結束短暫的交流時，一級交流可能會列出$ Griffain。為了使他們從期權上獲利，價格將需要從借入的水平上漲25％至70％。 1月23日的價格約為0.50美元。如果在這裡完全形成Wintermute模式，我們可以看到$ Griffain價格在幾週內達到0.60至0.85美元。