尽管美元指数（DXY）的大幅下降，但比特币并未显示出通常与这种现象相关的抛物线生长

几周来，美元指数（DXY）大大下降，但与投资者的期望相反，比特币没有显示抛物线增长

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has been on a downward trajectory for several weeks now. However, contrary to investors’ expectations, bitcoin is not displaying the parabolic growth usually associated with this phenomenon. This article delves into the causes of this anomaly and its potential implications.

美元指数（DXY）已经处于下降轨迹已有几周了。但是，与投资者的期望相反，比特币没有显示出通常与这种现象相关的抛物线增长。本文深入研究了这种异常的原因及其潜在含义。

The historical relationship between Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar in question

比特币与美元之间的历史关系

比特币与美元之间的历史关系

On March 7, 2024, the U.S. dollar index fell to 103.60, after reaching 107.6 on February 28, marking a drop of nearly 4% in just a few days. Ideally, this situation should create a favorable environment for bitcoin, which is generally considered a safe haven against the weakening dollar.

2024年3月7日，美元指数在2月28日达到107.6后跌至103.60，标志着短短几天内下降了近4％。理想情况下，这种情况应该为比特币创造一个有利的环境，比特币通常被认为是防止美元疲软的避风港。

Until mid-2024, the inverse correlation between the DXY and bitcoin was almost a certainty for analysts. When the dollar weakened, bitcoin appreciated. This dynamic was explained by the positioning of the queen of crypto as protection against inflation, thanks to its fixed monetary policy and limited supply, similar to digital gold.

直到2024年中期，DXY和比特币之间的反相关性几乎是分析师的确定性。当美元削弱时，比特币赞赏。由于其固定的货币政策和有限的供应，类似于数字黄金，加密皇后的定位是防止通货膨胀的。

However, the past eight months have demonstrated that this relationship is not as simple as it seems. Julien Bittel, head of macroeconomic research at Global Macro Investor, highlights that this type of rapid DXY drop has occurred only three times in the last 12 years, and each time, bitcoin ultimately reacted positively, but with a significant delay.

但是，在过去的八个月中，这种关系并不像看起来那么简单。全球宏观投资者宏观经济研究负责人朱利安·比特尔（Julien Bittel）强调，在过去的12年中，这种快速的DXY下降仅发生了三次，每次，比特币最终都会做出积极的反应，但延迟很大。

The multiple factors explaining the current decoupling

解释当前解耦的多种因素

解释当前解耦的多种因素

Several macroeconomic factors explain bitcoin’s current underperformance despite the weakness of the dollar. Analyst @21_XBT notably identifies “customs tariffs, the DOGE (Department of U.S. Government Efficiency), the yen carry trade, bond yields, and fears of economic growth” as short-term disruptive elements.

尽管美元疲软，但几个宏观经济因素解释了比特币当前的表现不佳。分析师 @21_xbt特别确定“海关关税，总督（美国政府效率），日元携带贸易，债券收益率和对经济增长的恐惧”为短期破坏性因素。

The measures taken by the Trump administration, including budget cuts and increased tariffs, created an uncertain economic environment. While these policies may be positive in the medium term by reducing U.S. debt and improving the trade balance, they cause short-term turbulence that affects all risky assets, including bitcoin.

特朗普政府采取的措施，包括削减预算和增加关税，创造了不确定的经济环境。尽管这些政策在中期可能通过减少美国债务并改善贸易余额是正面的，但它们会导致短期动荡影响所有风险资产，包括比特币。

It is worth noting that the positive effects of the dollar’s weakness on bitcoin have historically taken anywhere from six months to several years to materialize. For example, after the significant DXY drop in November 2022, bitcoin did not begin its true ascent until several months later.

值得注意的是，美元弱点对比特币的积极影响历史上已经花了六个月到几年才能实现。例如，在2022年11月的DXY大幅下降之后，比特币直到几个月后才开始真正的上升。

The long-term fundamentals of bitcoin remain strong despite this period of temporary decoupling from the DXY. As several analyses indicate, global financial conditions are rapidly easing, which should ultimately benefit assets like bitcoin.

尽管与DXY暂时脱钩，但比特币的长期基本面仍然很强。正如多项分析所表明的那样，全球财务状况正在迅速放松，这最终将使比特币等资产受益。

As central banks adopt more expansionary monetary policies to stimulate the economy, current macroeconomic fears will likely fade. This evolution could pave the way for a new historical record. Some analysts even predict that bitcoin could reach 126,000 dollars by June 2025, confirming that the current decoupling from the dollar is only temporary.

随着中央银行采用更多扩张性的货币政策来刺激经济，当前的宏观经济恐惧可能会消失。这种演变可以为新的历史记录铺平道路。一些分析师甚至预测，比特币在2025年6月之前可能达到126,000美元，证实当前与美元的退路仅是临时的。