儘管美元指數（DXY）的大幅下降，但比特幣並未顯示出通常與這種現象相關的拋物線生長

幾週來，美元指數（DXY）大大下降，但與投資者的期望相反，比特幣沒有顯示拋物線增長

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has been on a downward trajectory for several weeks now. However, contrary to investors’ expectations, bitcoin is not displaying the parabolic growth usually associated with this phenomenon. This article delves into the causes of this anomaly and its potential implications.

美元指數（DXY）已經處於下降軌跡已有幾週了。但是，與投資者的期望相反，比特幣沒有顯示出通常與這種現象相關的拋物線增長。本文深入研究了這種異常的原因及其潛在含義。

The historical relationship between Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar in question

比特幣與美元之間的歷史關係

比特幣與美元之間的歷史關係

On March 7, 2024, the U.S. dollar index fell to 103.60, after reaching 107.6 on February 28, marking a drop of nearly 4% in just a few days. Ideally, this situation should create a favorable environment for bitcoin, which is generally considered a safe haven against the weakening dollar.

2024年3月7日，美元指數在2月28日達到107.6後跌至103.60，標誌著短短幾天內下降了近4％。理想情況下，這種情況應該為比特幣創造一個有利的環境，比特幣通常被認為是防止美元疲軟的避風港。

Until mid-2024, the inverse correlation between the DXY and bitcoin was almost a certainty for analysts. When the dollar weakened, bitcoin appreciated. This dynamic was explained by the positioning of the queen of crypto as protection against inflation, thanks to its fixed monetary policy and limited supply, similar to digital gold.

直到2024年中期，DXY和比特幣之間的反相關性幾乎是分析師的確定性。當美元削弱時，比特幣讚賞。由於其固定的貨幣政策和有限的供應，類似於數字黃金，加密皇后的定位是防止通貨膨脹的。

However, the past eight months have demonstrated that this relationship is not as simple as it seems. Julien Bittel, head of macroeconomic research at Global Macro Investor, highlights that this type of rapid DXY drop has occurred only three times in the last 12 years, and each time, bitcoin ultimately reacted positively, but with a significant delay.

但是，在過去的八個月中，這種關係並不像看起來那麼簡單。全球宏觀投資者宏觀經濟研究負責人朱利安·比特爾（Julien Bittel）強調，在過去的12年中，這種快速的DXY下降僅發生了三次，每次，比特幣最終都會做出積極的反應，但延遲很大。

The multiple factors explaining the current decoupling

解釋當前解耦的多種因素

解釋當前解耦的多種因素

Several macroeconomic factors explain bitcoin’s current underperformance despite the weakness of the dollar. Analyst @21_XBT notably identifies “customs tariffs, the DOGE (Department of U.S. Government Efficiency), the yen carry trade, bond yields, and fears of economic growth” as short-term disruptive elements.

儘管美元疲軟，但幾個宏觀經濟因素解釋了比特幣當前的表現不佳。分析師 @21_xbt特別確定“海關關稅，總督（美國政府效率），日元攜帶貿易，債券收益率和對經濟增長的恐懼”為短期破壞性因素。

The measures taken by the Trump administration, including budget cuts and increased tariffs, created an uncertain economic environment. While these policies may be positive in the medium term by reducing U.S. debt and improving the trade balance, they cause short-term turbulence that affects all risky assets, including bitcoin.

特朗普政府採取的措施，包括削減預算和增加關稅，創造了不確定的經濟環境。儘管這些政策在中期可能通過減少美國債務並改善貿易餘額是正面的，但它們會導致短期動盪影響所有風險資產，包括比特幣。

It is worth noting that the positive effects of the dollar’s weakness on bitcoin have historically taken anywhere from six months to several years to materialize. For example, after the significant DXY drop in November 2022, bitcoin did not begin its true ascent until several months later.

值得注意的是，美元弱點對比特幣的積極影響歷史上已經花了六個月到幾年才能實現。例如，在2022年11月的DXY大幅下降之後，比特幣直到幾個月後才開始真正的上升。

The long-term fundamentals of bitcoin remain strong despite this period of temporary decoupling from the DXY. As several analyses indicate, global financial conditions are rapidly easing, which should ultimately benefit assets like bitcoin.

儘管與DXY暫時脫鉤，但比特幣的長期基本面仍然很強。正如多項分析所表明的那樣，全球財務狀況正在迅速放鬆，這最終將使比特幣等資產受益。

As central banks adopt more expansionary monetary policies to stimulate the economy, current macroeconomic fears will likely fade. This evolution could pave the way for a new historical record. Some analysts even predict that bitcoin could reach 126,000 dollars by June 2025, confirming that the current decoupling from the dollar is only temporary.

隨著中央銀行採用更多擴張性的貨幣政策來刺激經濟，當前的宏觀經濟恐懼可能會消失。這種演變可以為新的歷史記錄鋪平道路。一些分析師甚至預測，比特幣在2025年6月之前可能達到126,000美元，證實當前與美元的退路僅是臨時的。