加密货币真的钱吗？

多年来，我一直认为加密货币是传统资金的数字替代品。毕竟，比特币（上面是约翰·托西里安（John Tsitrian）的照片，其摄影）的比特币（其摄影）的名称为“硬币”。但是，老实说：如果比特币是一种货币，那么我母亲的老豆豆婴儿收藏品是退休基金。

For years, I dismissed cryptocurrency as a failed currency. After all, Bitcoin—with “coin” right in the name—is often presented as a digital replacement for traditional money. But let’s be honest: if Bitcoin is a currency, then my mother’s old Beanie Baby collection is a retirement fund.

多年来，我将加密货币视为失败的货币。毕竟，比特币（以“硬币”为名）通常以数字替代传统资金替代。但是，老实说：如果比特币是一种货币，那么我母亲的老豆豆婴儿收藏品是退休基金。

A real currency needs to be stable. It should allow you to buy a coffee today without wondering whether, by tomorrow, that same amount could buy a car—or be worth nothing at all. Bitcoin and its kin like Ethereum and Dogecoin fail this test spectacularly.

真正的货币需要保持稳定。它应该让您今天购买咖啡，而不必怀疑明天是否可以购买汽车，或者根本不值得。比特币及其亲戚，例如以太坊和狗狗币，这一测试失败了。

Recently, however, I have realized that cryptocurrency might be something even bigger and stranger than currency. It is not just digital money; it’s a bet on the huge global demand for financial autonomy.

但是，最近，我意识到加密货币可能比货币更大和陌生。这不仅仅是数字资金；这是对全球对金融自主权的巨大需求的关注。

In an age where every dollar is tracked, crypto offers an escape from traditional financial oversight. That makes it attractive not just to cybercriminals and tax evaders, but also to privacy advocates, speculators, and people living under restrictive financial policies. It doesn’t replace traditional money; it sidesteps it.

在跟踪每一美元的时代，加密货币可逃避传统的财务监督。这使得它不仅对网络犯罪分子和税收逃避者有吸引力，而且对隐私的拥护者，投机者和生活在限制性金融政策下的人们。它不能取代传统资金；它避开了它。

It allows people to move, store, create, and destroy wealth outside of conventional banking systems. Some use it for transactions. Others see it as a hedge against inflation or a bet on the future of decentralized finance.

它使人们可以在传统银行系统之外移动，存储，创造和破坏财富。有些人将其用于交易。其他人则认为这是反对通货膨胀或对分散财务未来的押注的对冲。

Governments and banks don’t quite know what to do with it. Crypto exists in a financial gray zone. It’s not widely accepted for everyday purchases, yet it can hold immense value. Unlike cash, which is limited by geography, or gold, which requires secure storage, crypto can be transferred globally in seconds.

政府和银行不太知道该怎么办。加密货币存在于金融灰色区域中。日常购买并未被广泛接受，但可以拥有巨大的价值。与需要安全存储的地理或黄金限制的现金不同，可以在几秒钟内全球转移加密货币。

That’s part of its appeal, especially in countries with strict capital controls or volatile economies.

这是其吸引力的一部分，尤其是在严格的资本控制或挥发性经济体的国家中。

At the heart of cryptocurrency’s identity is the way it is produced. Crypto isn’t just a speculative asset—it’s an industrialized wealth-creation system.

加密货币身份的核心是产生的方式。加密不仅是投机资产，而且是一种工业化的财富创造系统。

Imagine a massive warehouse filled with powerful computers “manufacturing” cryptocurrency. These mining operations exist solely to create new “coins” and process transactions, consuming enormous amounts of electricity in the process. The larger the operation, the more crypto it produces.

想象一下，一个充满强大计算机“制造”加密货币的大型仓库。这些采矿业务仅是为了创建新的“硬币”和处理交易，在此过程中消耗了大量的电力。操作越大，它产生的加密货币就越多。

This is not how traditional currencies work. Fiat currencies are managed by central banks aiming for economic stability. Crypto, by contrast, is controlled by a decentralized network of miners and participants. Its supply is fixed, immune to government intervention. Some see this as a weakness. Others argue it is crypto’s greatest strength.

这不是传统货币的工作方式。法定货币由旨在经济稳定的中央银行管理。相比之下，加密由矿工和参与者的分散网络控制。它的供应是固定的，不受政府干预的影响。有些人认为这是一个弱点。其他人则认为这是加密货币的最大优势。

As Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies become more integrated into mainstream finance, the risks evolve. Even as regulators are warning about crypto’s role in illicit activity, major corporations and investment firms are offering crypto-backed products.

随着比特币和其他主要加密货币变得越来越融入主流金融，风险也会发展。即使监管机构警告了加密货币在非法活动中的作用，主要公司和投资公司也提供加密支持的产品。

Some politicians, including President Trump, are discussing national Bitcoin reserves. This growing legitimacy makes crypto harder to ignore. But if crypto-backed funds become widespread, a crash could ripple far beyond crypto traders.

包括特朗普总统在内的一些政客正在讨论国家比特币储备。这种日益增长的合法性使加密货币难以忽视。但是，如果加密支持的资金变得广泛，撞车事故可能远远超出了加密交易者。

That said, crypto remains a small fraction of global finance. Unless institutional adoption grows significantly, even a major downturn likely wouldn’t trigger systemic collapse.

也就是说，加密货币仍然是全球金融的一小部分。除非机构采用大幅增长，否则即使是主要的低迷也可能不会引发全身性崩溃。

Now, to answer the question in the headline, no, I still don’t think Bitcoin is a suitable retirement investment.

现在，要回答标题中的问题，不，我仍然认为比特币是合适的退休投资。

At least not in the sense that it is a stable asset to hold for 20 to 30 years while you watch your money grow in a predictable manner.

至少在某种意义上，当您以可预测的方式观看钱增长时，持有20至30年的稳定资产。

Rather, Bitcoin is a speculation. And speculations—whether in Bitcoin, meme stocks, or dot-com startups—are high-risk and not suitable for long-term financial security.

相反，比特币是一个猜测。以及猜测（无论是比特币，模因股票还是互联网创业公司）都是高风险，不适合长期金融安全。

Retirement portfolios should be built on diversification, stability and predictable returns. Bitcoin offers none of these. It is also constantly threatened by government regulation, macroeconomic instability, and the potential for a market downturn.

退休投资组合应建立在多元化，稳定性和可预测回报的基础上。比特币不提供这些。它也不断受到政府监管，宏观经济不稳定以及市场低迷的潜力的威胁。

For years, I saw crypto as a failed currency. What I now think it to be is a decentralized speculative asset, driven by a growing demand to bypass traditional financial systems. Its future remains uncertain.

多年来，我将加密货币视为失败的货币。我现在认为的是一个分散的投机资产，这是由于绕过传统金融系统的需求不断增长的驱动。它的未来仍然不确定。

As regulation increases and mainstream adoption expands, its role will continue to shift. But crypto is no longer just a niche experiment. It has become a financial force that governments, institutions and individuals must reckon with—whether they embrace it or try to control it.

随着法规的增加，主流采用的扩大，其作用将继续改变。但是加密不再只是一个利基实验。它已成为政府，机构和个人必须考虑的金融力量 - 无论他们是拥抱还是试图控制它。