加密貨幣真的錢嗎？

多年來，我一直認為加密貨幣是傳統資金的數字替代品。畢竟，比特幣（上面是約翰·托西里安（John Tsitrian）的照片，其攝影）的比特幣（其攝影）的名稱為“硬幣”。但是，老實說：如果比特幣是一種貨幣，那麼我母親的老豆豆嬰兒收藏品是退休基金。

For years, I dismissed cryptocurrency as a failed currency. After all, Bitcoin—with “coin” right in the name—is often presented as a digital replacement for traditional money. But let’s be honest: if Bitcoin is a currency, then my mother’s old Beanie Baby collection is a retirement fund.

多年來，我將加密貨幣視為失敗的貨幣。畢竟，比特幣（以“硬幣”為名）通常以數字替代傳統資金替代。但是，老實說：如果比特幣是一種貨幣，那麼我母親的老豆豆嬰兒收藏品是退休基金。

A real currency needs to be stable. It should allow you to buy a coffee today without wondering whether, by tomorrow, that same amount could buy a car—or be worth nothing at all. Bitcoin and its kin like Ethereum and Dogecoin fail this test spectacularly.

真正的貨幣需要保持穩定。它應該讓您今天購買咖啡，而不必懷疑明天是否可以購買汽車，或者根本不值得。比特幣及其親戚，例如以太坊和狗狗幣，這一測試失敗了。

Recently, however, I have realized that cryptocurrency might be something even bigger and stranger than currency. It is not just digital money; it’s a bet on the huge global demand for financial autonomy.

但是，最近，我意識到加密貨幣可能比貨幣更大和陌生。這不僅僅是數字資金；這是對全球對金融自主權的巨大需求的關注。

In an age where every dollar is tracked, crypto offers an escape from traditional financial oversight. That makes it attractive not just to cybercriminals and tax evaders, but also to privacy advocates, speculators, and people living under restrictive financial policies. It doesn’t replace traditional money; it sidesteps it.

在跟踪每一美元的時代，加密貨幣可逃避傳統的財務監督。這使得它不僅對網絡犯罪分子和稅收逃避者有吸引力，而且對隱私的擁護者，投機者和生活在限制性金融政策下的人們。它不能取代傳統資金；它避開了它。

It allows people to move, store, create, and destroy wealth outside of conventional banking systems. Some use it for transactions. Others see it as a hedge against inflation or a bet on the future of decentralized finance.

它使人們可以在傳統銀行系統之外移動，存儲，創造和破壞財富。有些人將其用於交易。其他人則認為這是反對通貨膨脹或對分散財務未來的押注的對沖。

Governments and banks don’t quite know what to do with it. Crypto exists in a financial gray zone. It’s not widely accepted for everyday purchases, yet it can hold immense value. Unlike cash, which is limited by geography, or gold, which requires secure storage, crypto can be transferred globally in seconds.

政府和銀行不太知道該怎麼辦。加密貨幣存在於金融灰色區域中。日常購買並未被廣泛接受，但可以擁有巨大的價值。與需要安全存儲的地理或黃金限制的現金不同，可以在幾秒鐘內全球轉移加密貨幣。

That’s part of its appeal, especially in countries with strict capital controls or volatile economies.

這是其吸引力的一部分，尤其是在嚴格的資本控製或揮發性經濟體的國家中。

At the heart of cryptocurrency’s identity is the way it is produced. Crypto isn’t just a speculative asset—it’s an industrialized wealth-creation system.

加密貨幣身份的核心是產生的方式。加密不僅是投機資產，而且是一種工業化的財富創造系統。

Imagine a massive warehouse filled with powerful computers “manufacturing” cryptocurrency. These mining operations exist solely to create new “coins” and process transactions, consuming enormous amounts of electricity in the process. The larger the operation, the more crypto it produces.

想像一下，一個充滿強大計算機“製造”加密貨幣的大型倉庫。這些採礦業務僅是為了創建新的“硬幣”和處理交易，在此過程中消耗了大量的電力。操作越大，它產生的加密貨幣就越多。

This is not how traditional currencies work. Fiat currencies are managed by central banks aiming for economic stability. Crypto, by contrast, is controlled by a decentralized network of miners and participants. Its supply is fixed, immune to government intervention. Some see this as a weakness. Others argue it is crypto’s greatest strength.

這不是傳統貨幣的工作方式。法定貨幣由旨在經濟穩定的中央銀行管理。相比之下，加密由礦工和參與者的分散網絡控制。它的供應是固定的，不受政府乾預的影響。有些人認為這是一個弱點。其他人則認為這是加密貨幣的最大優勢。

As Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies become more integrated into mainstream finance, the risks evolve. Even as regulators are warning about crypto’s role in illicit activity, major corporations and investment firms are offering crypto-backed products.

隨著比特幣和其他主要加密貨幣變得越來越融入主流金融，風險也會發展。即使監管機構警告了加密貨幣在非法活動中的作用，主要公司和投資公司也提供加密支持的產品。

Some politicians, including President Trump, are discussing national Bitcoin reserves. This growing legitimacy makes crypto harder to ignore. But if crypto-backed funds become widespread, a crash could ripple far beyond crypto traders.

包括特朗普總統在內的一些政客正在討論國家比特幣儲備。這種日益增長的合法性使加密貨幣難以忽視。但是，如果加密支持的資金變得廣泛，撞車事故可能遠遠超出了加密交易者。

That said, crypto remains a small fraction of global finance. Unless institutional adoption grows significantly, even a major downturn likely wouldn’t trigger systemic collapse.

也就是說，加密貨幣仍然是全球金融的一小部分。除非機構採用大幅增長，否則即使是主要的低迷也可能不會引發全身性崩潰。

Now, to answer the question in the headline, no, I still don’t think Bitcoin is a suitable retirement investment.

現在，要回答標題中的問題，不，我仍然認為比特幣是合適的退休投資。

At least not in the sense that it is a stable asset to hold for 20 to 30 years while you watch your money grow in a predictable manner.

至少從某種意義上說，這是一項穩定的資產，可以持有20到30年，而您觀看錢以可預測的方式增長。

Rather, Bitcoin is a speculation. And speculations—whether in Bitcoin, meme stocks, or dot-com startups—are high-risk and not suitable for long-term financial security.

相反，比特幣是一個猜測。以及猜測（無論是比特幣，模因股票還是互聯網創業公司）都是高風險，不適合長期金融安全。

Retirement portfolios should be built on diversification, stability and predictable returns. Bitcoin offers none of these. It is also constantly threatened by government regulation, macroeconomic instability, and the potential for a market downturn.

退休投資組合應建立在多元化，穩定性和可預測回報的基礎上。比特幣不提供這些。它也不斷受到政府監管，宏觀經濟不穩定以及市場低迷的潛力的威脅。

For years, I saw crypto as a failed currency. What I now think it to be is a decentralized speculative asset, driven by a growing demand to bypass traditional financial systems. Its future remains uncertain.

多年來，我將加密貨幣視為失敗的貨幣。我現在認為的是一個分散的投機資產，這是由於繞過傳統金融系統的需求不斷增長的驅動。它的未來仍然不確定。

As regulation increases and mainstream adoption expands, its role will continue to shift. But crypto is no longer just a niche experiment. It has become a financial force that governments, institutions and individuals must reckon with—whether they embrace it or try to control it.

隨著法規的增加，主流採用的擴大，其作用將繼續改變。但是加密不再只是一個利基實驗。它已成為政府，機構和個人必須考慮的金融力量 - 無論他們是擁抱還是試圖控制它。