加密货币分析师预测，随着比特币主导地位的飙升，市场将出现动荡

分析师本杰明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 预测，加密市场的 4 月份将是多事之秋，随着山寨币相对于比特币的主导地位减弱，波动性将会加剧。 Cowen 认为，比特币主导地位上升到 55.3% 以上可能预示着看跌转变，他认为比特币市场见顶的时间（早期或正常周期）取决于今年晚些时候美国的货币政策。

Crypto Analyst Benjamin Cowen Predicts Volatility and Market Shifts Amidst Rising Bitcoin Dominance

加密货币分析师本杰明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）预测，比特币主导地位不断上升，波动性和市场变化

Prominent crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has released his highly anticipated forecast for the crypto market in April, anticipating a period of significant volatility and potential shifts in market dynamics. In a recent video shared with his vast audience of over 796,000 YouTube subscribers, Cowen outlined his rationale for expecting an eventful month for the crypto industry.

著名加密货币分析师 Benjamin Cowen 在 4 月份发布了他对加密货币市场备受期待的预测，预计市场动态将出现一段大幅波动和潜在变化的时期。在最近与超过 796,000 名 YouTube 订阅者的广大观众分享的视频中，Cowen 概述了他预计加密行业将迎来多事之月的理由。

Altcoins and Bitcoin Dominance: A Delicate Balance

山寨币和比特币的主导地位：微妙的平衡

Cowen highlighted the crucial role played by Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D), a metric that measures Bitcoin's relative market share within the broader crypto landscape. According to his analysis, the sentiment in the market will likely turn bearish if BTC.D increases by more than five percentage points from its current level. Such a scenario would indicate that altcoins are losing value at a faster rate than Bitcoin, potentially signaling a shift towards a risk-off environment.

Cowen 强调了比特币主导地位（BTC.D）所发挥的关键作用，该指标衡量比特币在更广泛的加密领域中的相对市场份额。根据他的分析，如果 BTC.D 从当前水平上涨超过 5 个百分点，市场情绪可能会转为看跌。这种情况表明山寨币正在以比比特币更快的速度贬值，这可能预示着向避险环境的转变。

"We are getting pretty close," Cowen cautioned. "The range we're looking at is 55.3%. So, above 55.3% could be the warning sign. That could be the risk-off signal for the summer. And that's what I would be looking at going into the summer months."

“我们已经非常接近了，”考恩警告说。 “我们关注的范围是 55.3%。因此，高于 55.3% 可能是一个警告信号。这可能是夏季的避险信号。这就是我在进入夏季时所关注的。”

At the time of writing, Bitcoin dominance stands at 49.6%, suggesting that the market is still in a relatively neutral position. However, investors should keep a close eye on this metric as it approaches the crucial 55.3% threshold.

截至撰写本文时，比特币的主导地位为 49.6%，表明市场仍处于相对中性的位置。然而，随着该指标接近关键的 55.3% 门槛，投资者应密切关注。

Bitcoin's Peak: Left-Translated or Normal Cycle?

比特币的顶峰：左平周期还是正常周期？

Cowen also delved into the timing of Bitcoin's next peak, which he believes will be heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the coming months. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced two distinct types of market cycles: a "normal cycle peak," which occurs more than a year after the halving, and a "left-translated peak," which occurs earlier in the cycle.

考恩还深入研究了比特币下一个峰值的时间，他认为这将在很大程度上受到美联储未来几个月货币政策的影响。从历史上看，比特币经历了两种不同类型的市场周期：“正常周期峰值”，发生在减半一年多后；“左平峰值”，发生在周期早期。

"Whether it is a normal cycle peak or a left-translated peak will probably depend on what happens in the fourth quarter (Q4) this year," Cowen explained. "If Bitcoin in Q4 is crashing in a recession-like environment as the unemployment rate is just sort of going higher...if that happens and we get some type of like mild recession and then the Federal Reserve just starts printing again, then why not have another rally in 2025?"

考恩解释说：“这是正常周期峰值还是左平移峰值可能取决于今年第四季度（Q4）发生的情况。” “如果第四季度比特币在类似衰退的环境中崩溃，因为失业率只是上升……如果这种情况发生，我们会出现某种类型的温和衰退，然后美联储再次开始印钞，那么为什么2025 年不再举行集会吗？”

Volatility and Uncertainty Ahead

未来的波动性和不确定性

Cowen's forecast underscores the inherent volatility and uncertainty associated with the crypto market, particularly during periods of heightened activity. As the market navigates these potential shifts, investors are advised to proceed with caution, conduct thorough research, and monitor market developments closely.

考恩的预测强调了与加密货币市场相关的固有波动性和不确定性，特别是在活动频繁期间。随着市场应对这些潜在的转变，建议投资者谨慎行事，进行彻底研究并密切关注市场发展。

Cowen's insights provide valuable guidance for market participants, offering a nuanced perspective on the dynamics shaping the crypto landscape. As April unfolds, the crypto community will be eagerly watching for any signs of confirmation or divergence from Cowen's predictions, shaping their investment strategies accordingly.

Cowen 的见解为市场参与者提供了宝贵的指导，为塑造加密货币格局的动态提供了细致入微的视角。随着 4 月份的到来，加密货币社区将热切关注任何证实或偏离 Cowen 预测的迹象，从而相应地制定他们的投资策略。