加密貨幣分析師預測，隨著比特幣主導地位的飆升，市場將出現動盪

分析師本傑明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 預測，加密市場的 4 月將是多事之秋，隨著山寨幣相對於比特幣的主導地位減弱，波動性將會加劇。 Cowen 認為，比特幣主導地位上升到 55.3% 以上可能預示著看跌轉變，他認為比特幣市場見頂的時間（早期或正常週期）取決於今年稍後美國的貨幣政策。

Crypto Analyst Benjamin Cowen Predicts Volatility and Market Shifts Amidst Rising Bitcoin Dominance

加密貨幣分析師本傑明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）預測，比特幣主導地位不斷上升，波動性與市場變化

Prominent crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has released his highly anticipated forecast for the crypto market in April, anticipating a period of significant volatility and potential shifts in market dynamics. In a recent video shared with his vast audience of over 796,000 YouTube subscribers, Cowen outlined his rationale for expecting an eventful month for the crypto industry.

著名加密貨幣分析師 Benjamin Cowen 在 4 月發布了他對加密貨幣市場備受期待的預測，預計市場動態將出現一段大幅波動和潛在變化的時期。在最近與超過 796,000 名 YouTube 訂閱者的廣大觀眾分享的影片中，Cowen 概述了他預計加密產業將迎來多事之月的理由。

Altcoins and Bitcoin Dominance: A Delicate Balance

山寨幣和比特幣的主導地位：微妙的平衡

Cowen highlighted the crucial role played by Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D), a metric that measures Bitcoin's relative market share within the broader crypto landscape. According to his analysis, the sentiment in the market will likely turn bearish if BTC.D increases by more than five percentage points from its current level. Such a scenario would indicate that altcoins are losing value at a faster rate than Bitcoin, potentially signaling a shift towards a risk-off environment.

Cowen 強調了比特幣主導地位（BTC.D）所發揮的關鍵作用，該指標衡量比特幣在更廣泛的加密領域中的相對市場份額。根據他的分析，如果 BTC.D 從目前水準上漲超過 5 個百分點，市場情緒可能會轉為看跌。這種情況表明山寨幣正在以比比特幣更快的速度貶值，這可能預示著向避險環境的轉變。

"We are getting pretty close," Cowen cautioned. "The range we're looking at is 55.3%. So, above 55.3% could be the warning sign. That could be the risk-off signal for the summer. And that's what I would be looking at going into the summer months."

「我們已經非常接近了，」考恩警告。 “我們關注的範圍是 55.3%。因此，高於 55.3% 可能是一個警告信號。這可能是夏季的避險信號。這就是我在進入夏季時所關注的。”

At the time of writing, Bitcoin dominance stands at 49.6%, suggesting that the market is still in a relatively neutral position. However, investors should keep a close eye on this metric as it approaches the crucial 55.3% threshold.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣的主導地位為 49.6%，顯示市場仍處於相對中性的位置。然而，隨著該指標接近關鍵的 55.3% 門檻，投資者應密切注意。

Bitcoin's Peak: Left-Translated or Normal Cycle?

比特幣的頂峰：左平週期還是正常週期？

Cowen also delved into the timing of Bitcoin's next peak, which he believes will be heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the coming months. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced two distinct types of market cycles: a "normal cycle peak," which occurs more than a year after the halving, and a "left-translated peak," which occurs earlier in the cycle.

考恩也深入研究了比特幣下一個高峰的時間，他認為這將在很大程度上受到聯準會未來幾個月貨幣政策的影響。從歷史上看，比特幣經歷了兩種不同類型的市場週期：“正常週期峰值”，發生在減半一年多後；“左平峰值”，發生在週期早期。

"Whether it is a normal cycle peak or a left-translated peak will probably depend on what happens in the fourth quarter (Q4) this year," Cowen explained. "If Bitcoin in Q4 is crashing in a recession-like environment as the unemployment rate is just sort of going higher...if that happens and we get some type of like mild recession and then the Federal Reserve just starts printing again, then why not have another rally in 2025?"

考恩解釋說：“這是正常週期峰值還是左平移峰值可能取決於今年第四季度（Q4）發生的情況。” 「如果第四季比特幣在類似衰退的環境中崩潰，因為失業率只是上升……如果這種情況發生，我們會出現某種類型的溫和衰退，然後聯準會再次開始印鈔，那麼為什麼2025 年不再舉行集會嗎？”

Volatility and Uncertainty Ahead

未來的波動性和不確定性

Cowen's forecast underscores the inherent volatility and uncertainty associated with the crypto market, particularly during periods of heightened activity. As the market navigates these potential shifts, investors are advised to proceed with caution, conduct thorough research, and monitor market developments closely.

考恩的預測強調了與加密貨幣市場相關的固有波動性和不確定性，特別是在活動頻繁期間。隨著市場應對這些潛在的轉變，建議投資者謹慎行事，進行徹底研究並密切關注市場發展。

Cowen's insights provide valuable guidance for market participants, offering a nuanced perspective on the dynamics shaping the crypto landscape. As April unfolds, the crypto community will be eagerly watching for any signs of confirmation or divergence from Cowen's predictions, shaping their investment strategies accordingly.

Cowen 的見解為市場參與者提供了寶貴的指導，為塑造加密貨幣格局的動態提供了細緻的視角。隨著 4 月的到來，加密貨幣社群將熱切關注任何證實或偏離 Cowen 預測的跡象，從而相應地制定他們的投資策略。