炒作减弱，Coinbase 估值过高，给未来蒙上阴影

由于估值过高，Coinbase 股票面临下跌趋势。尽管其作为加密货币交易所的价值，但该股票的市盈率明显高于业内同行。分析师 Dan Dolev 将目标价修正为 145 美元，虽然高于之前的预期，但仍然反映出对 Coinbase 估值过高的担忧。在目前估值水平下，建议投资者谨慎行事，直至达到更合理的价格。

Coinbase Stock: Unwarranted Valuation Weighs Heavy on Its Prospects Amidst Ebbing Hype

Coinbase 股票：在炒作消退的情况下，无根据的估值对其前景造成沉重打击

Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN), a prominent cryptocurrency exchange, has emerged as a significant player in the digital asset landscape. However, despite its undeniable value in facilitating the trading of popular cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC-USD), the market's rational assessment reveals an inflated valuation that threatens to drag its stock price downward.

Coinbase（纳斯达克股票代码：COIN）是一家著名的加密货币交易所，已成为数字资产领域的重要参与者。然而，尽管其在促进比特币（BTC-USD）等流行加密货币的交易方面具有不可否认的价值，但市场的理性评估显示其估值过高，有可能拖累其股价下跌。

Initially, the market's short-term sentiment fueled a surge in Coinbase stock, partly driven by the hype surrounding the recently approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, as the fanfare subsides, it is prudent to scrutinize Coinbase's excessive valuation multiple.

最初，市场的短期情绪推动了 Coinbase 股票的飙升，部分原因是围绕最近批准的现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的炒作。然而，随着喧嚣的平息，谨慎审视 Coinbase 过高的估值倍数是明智之举。

Coinbase's Dependence on Bitcoin's Rise and Fall

Coinbase 对比特币涨跌的依赖

In the past, Coinbase has benefited from riding the coattails of Bitcoin's price appreciation. The excitement over spot Bitcoin ETFs and the Bitcoin halving event thrust Coinbase into the spotlight. However, contrarian and value investors recognize the folly of chasing stocks that grab headlines in the financial press.

过去，Coinbase 曾受益于比特币价格上涨。现货比特币 ETF 和比特币减半事件的兴奋让 Coinbase 成为人们关注的焦点。然而，逆势投资者和价值投资者认识到，追逐成为财经媒体头条新闻的股票是愚蠢的。

Despite the perceived invincibility of Coinbase and other cryptocurrency-related companies following the Securities and Exchange Commission's approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, Coinbase's management has exhibited audacious behavior, even resorting to legal action against the SEC over the regulatory status of cryptocurrency.

尽管在美国证券交易委员会批准现货比特币 ETF 之后，Coinbase 和其他加密货币相关公司被认为是无敌的，但 Coinbase 的管理层却表现出了大胆的行为，甚至就加密货币的监管地位对 SEC 采取了法律行动。

Growing Concerns over Coinbase's Valuation

人们对 Coinbase 估值的担忧与日俱增

Despite Coinbase's ongoing revenue generation from cryptocurrency transactions, analysts have expressed concerns about the company's valuation. Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev raised his price target on Coinbase stock from $84 to $145, but his caveat was clear: Coinbase's valuation remains a concern.

尽管 Coinbase 持续通过加密货币交易创造收入，但分析师对该公司的估值表示担忧。瑞穗分析师 Dan Dolev 将 Coinbase 股票的目标价格从 84 美元上调至 145 美元，但他的警告很明确：Coinbase 的估值仍然令人担忧。

Dolev observed that Coinbase trades at a lofty 26 times its 2025 consensus EBITDA multiple, significantly higher than the 11-16x median for peers in the payments, exchanges, and asset managers sectors.

Dolev 观察到，Coinbase 的交易价格高达 2025 年共识 EBITDA 倍数的 26 倍，显着高于支付、交易所和资产管理行业同行 11-16 倍的中位数。

A more traditional valuation metric, the trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, also paints a concerning picture. Coinbase's GAAP-measured P/E ratio stands at an astonishing 573.96x, dwarfs the sector median trailing P/E ratio of 10.58x.

一个更传统的估值指标，即过去 12 个月的市盈率 (P/E)，也描绘了一幅令人担忧的景象。 Coinbase 按 GAAP 衡量的市盈率为惊人的 573.96 倍，使行业中位数往绩市盈率 10.58 倍相形见绌。

A Cautionary Tale for Investors

投资者的警示故事

While analyst Dolev's price target adjustment may be attributed to Coinbase's rise beyond his previous target amid the spot Bitcoin ETF hype, the underlying valuation issue remains unaddressed.

尽管分析师 Dolev 的价格目标调整可能归因于 Coinbase 在现货比特币 ETF 炒作中的上涨超出了他之前的目标，但潜在的估值问题仍未得到解决。

As the hype subsides, Coinbase shareholders face the risk of a steep drawdown. A more reasonable valuation would only emerge if Coinbase stock were to drop to around $165. Until then, investors are advised to exercise caution and avoid chasing the stock at its current elevated levels.

随着炒作的消退，Coinbase 股东面临着大幅撤资的风险。只有当 Coinbase 股价跌至 165 美元左右时，才会出现更合理的估值。在此之前，建议投资者谨慎行事，避免在目前的高位追逐该股。

Valuation and Growth: A Delicate Balance

估值与增长：微妙的平衡

Coinbase stands as a testament to the importance of balancing valuation with growth potential. Despite its position as a leading cryptocurrency exchange, its excessive valuation poses a significant threat to its long-term prospects. Investors should prioritize companies with a reasonable valuation that aligns with their growth trajectory.

Coinbase 证明了平衡估值与增长潜力的重要性。尽管其处于领先的加密货币交易所的地位，但其过高的估值对其长期前景构成了重大威胁。投资者应优先考虑估值合理且与其增长轨迹相符的公司。

In the case of Coinbase, the market's weighing machine is likely to send its stock price lower until the company's valuation becomes more commensurate with its fundamentals. Until that happens, investors would be wise to steer clear and let the chasers buy at their own peril.

就 Coinbase 而言，市场的称重机可能会压低其股价，直到该公司的估值与其基本面更加相符。在此之前，投资者明智的做法是避开，让追赶者买入，后果自负。