炒作減弱，Coinbase 估值過高，給未來蒙上陰影

由於估值過高，Coinbase 股票面臨下跌趨勢。儘管其作為加密貨幣交易所的價值，但該股票的本益比明顯高於業內同業。分析師 Dan Dolev 將目標價修正為 145 美元，雖然高於先前的預期，但仍反映出對 Coinbase 估值過高的擔憂。在目前估值水準下，建議投資人謹慎行事，直到達到更合理的價格。

Coinbase Stock: Unwarranted Valuation Weighs Heavy on Its Prospects Amidst Ebbing Hype

Coinbase 股票：在炒作消退的情況下，無根據的估值對其前景造成沉重打擊

Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN), a prominent cryptocurrency exchange, has emerged as a significant player in the digital asset landscape. However, despite its undeniable value in facilitating the trading of popular cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC-USD), the market's rational assessment reveals an inflated valuation that threatens to drag its stock price downward.

Coinbase（納斯達克股票代碼：COIN）是一家著名的加密貨幣交易所，已成為數位資產領域的重要參與者。然而，儘管在促進比特幣（BTC-USD）等流行加密貨幣的交易方面具有不可否認的價值，但市場的理性評估顯示其估值過高，有可能拖累其股價下跌。

Initially, the market's short-term sentiment fueled a surge in Coinbase stock, partly driven by the hype surrounding the recently approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, as the fanfare subsides, it is prudent to scrutinize Coinbase's excessive valuation multiple.

最初，市場的短期情緒推動了 Coinbase 股票的飆升，部分原因是圍繞最近批准的現貨比特幣交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的炒作。然而，隨著喧囂的平息，謹慎審視 Coinbase 過高的估值倍數是明智之舉。

Coinbase's Dependence on Bitcoin's Rise and Fall

Coinbase 對比特幣漲跌的依賴

In the past, Coinbase has benefited from riding the coattails of Bitcoin's price appreciation. The excitement over spot Bitcoin ETFs and the Bitcoin halving event thrust Coinbase into the spotlight. However, contrarian and value investors recognize the folly of chasing stocks that grab headlines in the financial press.

過去，Coinbase 曾受惠於比特幣價格上漲。現貨比特幣 ETF 和比特幣減半事件的興奮讓 Coinbase 成為人們關注的焦點。然而，逆勢投資者和價值投資者意識到，追逐成為財經媒體頭條新聞的股票是愚蠢的。

Despite the perceived invincibility of Coinbase and other cryptocurrency-related companies following the Securities and Exchange Commission's approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, Coinbase's management has exhibited audacious behavior, even resorting to legal action against the SEC over the regulatory status of cryptocurrency.

儘管在美國證券交易委員會批准現貨比特幣ETF 之後，Coinbase 和其他加密貨幣相關公司被認為是無敵的，但Coinbase 的管理層卻表現出了大膽的行為，甚至就加密貨幣的監管地位對SEC 採取了法律行動。

Growing Concerns over Coinbase's Valuation

人們對 Coinbase 估值的擔憂與日俱增

Despite Coinbase's ongoing revenue generation from cryptocurrency transactions, analysts have expressed concerns about the company's valuation. Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev raised his price target on Coinbase stock from $84 to $145, but his caveat was clear: Coinbase's valuation remains a concern.

儘管 Coinbase 持續透過加密貨幣交易創造收入，但分析師對該公司的估值表示擔憂。瑞穗分析師 Dan Dolev 將 Coinbase 股票的目標價從 84 美元上調至 145 美元，但他的警告很明確：Coinbase 的估值仍然令人擔憂。

Dolev observed that Coinbase trades at a lofty 26 times its 2025 consensus EBITDA multiple, significantly higher than the 11-16x median for peers in the payments, exchanges, and asset managers sectors.

Dolev 觀察到，Coinbase 的交易價格高達 2025 年共識 EBITDA 倍數的 26 倍，顯著高於支付、交易所和資產管理行業同業 11-16 倍的中位數。

A more traditional valuation metric, the trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, also paints a concerning picture. Coinbase's GAAP-measured P/E ratio stands at an astonishing 573.96x, dwarfs the sector median trailing P/E ratio of 10.58x.

一個更傳統的估值指標，即過去 12 個月的本益比 (P/E)，也描繪了令人擔憂的景象。 Coinbase 以 GAAP 衡量的本益比為驚人的 573.96 倍，使業界中位數往績本益比 10.58 倍相形見絀。

A Cautionary Tale for Investors

投資者的警示故事

While analyst Dolev's price target adjustment may be attributed to Coinbase's rise beyond his previous target amid the spot Bitcoin ETF hype, the underlying valuation issue remains unaddressed.

儘管分析師 Dolev 的目標價調整可能歸因於 Coinbase 在現貨比特幣 ETF 炒作中的上漲超出了他之前的目標，但潛在的估值問題仍未解決。

As the hype subsides, Coinbase shareholders face the risk of a steep drawdown. A more reasonable valuation would only emerge if Coinbase stock were to drop to around $165. Until then, investors are advised to exercise caution and avoid chasing the stock at its current elevated levels.

隨著炒作的消退，Coinbase 股東面臨大幅撤資的風險。只有當 Coinbase 股價跌至 165 美元左右時，才會出現更合理的估值。在此之前，建議投資人謹慎行事，避免在目前的高點追逐該股。

Valuation and Growth: A Delicate Balance

估值與成長：微妙的平衡

Coinbase stands as a testament to the importance of balancing valuation with growth potential. Despite its position as a leading cryptocurrency exchange, its excessive valuation poses a significant threat to its long-term prospects. Investors should prioritize companies with a reasonable valuation that aligns with their growth trajectory.

Coinbase 證明了平衡估值與成長潛力的重要性。儘管其處於領先的加密貨幣交易所的地位，但其過高的估值對其長期前景構成了重大威脅。投資者應優先考慮估值合理且與其成長軌跡相符的公司。

In the case of Coinbase, the market's weighing machine is likely to send its stock price lower until the company's valuation becomes more commensurate with its fundamentals. Until that happens, investors would be wise to steer clear and let the chasers buy at their own peril.

就 Coinbase 而言，市場的稱重機可能會壓低其股價，直到該公司的估值與其基本面更相符。在此之前，投資者明智的做法是避開，讓追趕者買入，後果自負。