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伯恩斯坦黑皮书是由联博公司旗下伯恩斯坦公司制作的一系列深入研究的报告。
Bernstein has published a new Black Book, titled From Coin to Computing: The Bitcoin Investing Guide. The guide offers a comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin's role in modern investment portfolios, examining its unique characteristics and potential as both a digital gold and a technological asset class.
伯恩斯坦出版了一本新的黑皮书,名为《从硬币到计算:比特币投资指南》。该指南对比特币在现代投资组合中的作用进行了全面分析,探讨了其作为数字黄金和技术资产类别的独特特征和潜力。
Highlighting Bitcoin's scarcity and its hedge against inflation, the guide discusses the challenges and opportunities in the Bitcoin space. It focuses on security, regulation, and infrastructure improvements that have made it increasingly accessible to institutional investors.
该指南强调了比特币的稀缺性及其对冲通胀的能力,讨论了比特币领域的挑战和机遇。它专注于安全、监管和基础设施的改进,使机构投资者越来越容易获得这些服务。
Bernstein also breaks down various valuation approaches, such as Metcalfe's Law, and explores how Bitcoin's computing power and network size contribute to its long-term potential.
伯恩斯坦还分析了梅特卡夫定律等各种估值方法,并探讨了比特币的计算能力和网络规模如何为其长期潜力做出贡献。
Moreover, the guide addresses how Bitcoin fits into broader portfolio strategies, especially concerning its volatility and how it might serve as a hedge, despite being far more volatile than traditional assets like gold. Investors are advised to approach Bitcoin with a venture capital mindset—keeping position sizes small, diversifying, and maintaining a long-term view to mitigate risks associated with its price swings.
此外,该指南还讨论了比特币如何适应更广泛的投资组合策略,特别是关于其波动性以及如何作为对冲工具,尽管其波动性远高于黄金等传统资产。建议投资者以风险投资的心态对待比特币——保持较小的头寸规模、多元化,并保持长远眼光,以减轻与其价格波动相关的风险。
The report also touches upon Bitcoin's growing importance as a corporate treasury asset, highlighting how large firms are adopting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve.
该报告还谈到了比特币作为企业财务资产日益增长的重要性,强调了大公司如何采用比特币作为战略储备。
Key Insights:
主要见解:
Institutional Involvement in Bitcoin ETFs Surges
机构对比特币 ETF 的参与激增
Bernstein's analysis reveals a major uptick in institutional involvement, with global asset managers now holding nearly $60 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs by 2024—a significant leap from $12 billion in 2022. The launch of these ETFs has marked the most successful launch in the history of exchange-traded funds, with $18.5 billion in inflows year-to-date since their January debut. The report emphasizes that Bitcoin ETFs have become the primary gateway for large-scale institutional investment.
Bernstein 的分析显示,机构参与度大幅上升,到 2024 年,全球资产管理公司目前将持有近 600 亿美元的比特币和以太坊 ETF,较 2022 年的 120 亿美元大幅跃升。这些 ETF 的推出标志着历史上最成功的推出自 1 月份首次亮相以来,今年迄今已有 185 亿美元的资金流入。报告强调,比特币ETF已成为大规模机构投资的主要门户。
Bitcoin's Path to $200,000 by 2025
比特币到 2025 年将达到 20 万美元
Bernstein remains highly optimistic about Bitcoin's future, predicting it could hit $200,000 by the end of 2025, largely driven by institutional adoption, particularly through ETFs. Bitcoin has already surged 120% over the last year, bringing its market cap to $1.3 trillion. As demand continues to grow, miners are scaling their infrastructure to meet these needs, with Wall Street expected to play a more prominent role in the market.
Bernstein 对比特币的未来仍然高度乐观,预计到 2025 年底,比特币的价格可能会达到 20 万美元,这主要是由机构采用(特别是通过 ETF)推动的。比特币去年已飙升 120%,市值达到 1.3 万亿美元。随着需求持续增长,矿商正在扩展其基础设施以满足这些需求,华尔街预计将在市场中发挥更重要的作用。
Bitcoin as a Corporate Treasury Asset
比特币作为企业财务资产
Companies like MicroStrategy are leading the way in using Bitcoin as a corporate treasury asset, with more than 99% of its cash reserves now held in Bitcoin. The report notes that MicroStrategy holds approximately 1.3% of Bitcoin's total supply. The report highlights that investing through equities like MicroStrategy offers superior returns compared to holding Bitcoin directly or via ETFs, calling this approach an “active leveraged Bitcoin equity strategy.”
像 MicroStrategy 这样的公司在使用比特币作为企业财务资产方面处于领先地位,目前其 99% 以上的现金储备都是比特币。报告指出,MicroStrategy 持有比特币总供应量的约 1.3%。该报告强调,与直接或通过 ETF 持有比特币相比,通过 MicroStrategy 等股票进行投资可提供更高的回报,并将这种方法称为“主动杠杆比特币股票策略”。
Consolidation in the Bitcoin Mining Industry
比特币挖矿行业的整合
The Bitcoin mining sector is undergoing substantial consolidation, with large players such as Riot Platforms and Marathon acquiring smaller operations. According to Bernstein, these major mining companies are on track to control at least 20 gigawatts of global power supply by 2025. The trend toward consolidation is expected to continue, with miners also moving into AI data centers to capitalize on excess energy.
比特币挖矿行业正在经历大幅整合,Riot Platforms 和 Marathon 等大型企业收购了规模较小的业务。 Bernstein 表示,到 2025 年,这些主要矿业公司有望控制至少 20 吉瓦的全球电力供应。预计整合趋势将持续下去,矿商也将进入人工智能数据中心,以利用过剩能源。
Bitcoin Mining and AI
比特币挖矿和人工智能
The report also explores the increasing intersection of Bitcoin mining and AI infrastructure. Miners are positioned to become key players in AI data centers due to their access to large-scale power supplies. Bitcoin miners are capitalizing on this by offering energy at much lower costs compared to traditional data centers, creating an “energy arbitrage” opportunity.
该报告还探讨了比特币挖矿和人工智能基础设施日益增长的交叉点。由于能够获得大规模电力供应,矿工有望成为人工智能数据中心的关键参与者。比特币矿工正在利用这一点,以比传统数据中心低得多的成本提供能源,创造“能源套利”机会。
Mainstream Adoption of Bitcoin ETFs
比特币 ETF 的主流采用
Bernstein predicts that the adoption of Bitcoin ETFs will soon surpass that of traditional assets, largely due to the challenges retail investors face in self-custodying digital assets. The market cap for Bitcoin is projected to grow to over $3 trillion by 2025 as wealth management platforms and institutional investors allocate more resources to the cryptocurrency.
伯恩斯坦预测,比特币 ETF 的采用率将很快超过传统资产,这很大程度上是由于散户投资者在自我托管数字资产方面面临的挑战。随着财富管理平台和机构投资者向加密货币配置更多资源,预计到 2025 年,比特币的市值将增长至超过 3 万亿美元。
Bernstein's guide presents a clear path forward for Bitcoin, as it becomes increasingly integrated into both traditional financial systems and cutting-edge AI infrastructure.
伯恩斯坦的指南为比特币指明了一条清晰的前进道路,因为它越来越多地融入传统金融系统和尖端人工智能基础设施。
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