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伯恩斯坦黑皮書是由聯博公司旗下伯恩斯坦公司製作的一系列深入研究的報告。
Bernstein has published a new Black Book, titled From Coin to Computing: The Bitcoin Investing Guide. The guide offers a comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin's role in modern investment portfolios, examining its unique characteristics and potential as both a digital gold and a technological asset class.
伯恩斯坦出版了一本新的黑皮書,名為《從硬幣到計算:比特幣投資指南》。該指南對比特幣在現代投資組合中的作用進行了全面分析,探討了其作為數位黃金和技術資產類別的獨特特徵和潛力。
Highlighting Bitcoin's scarcity and its hedge against inflation, the guide discusses the challenges and opportunities in the Bitcoin space. It focuses on security, regulation, and infrastructure improvements that have made it increasingly accessible to institutional investors.
該指南強調了比特幣的稀缺性及其對沖通貨膨脹的能力,討論了比特幣領域的挑戰和機會。它專注於安全、監管和基礎設施的改進,使機構投資者越來越容易獲得這些服務。
Bernstein also breaks down various valuation approaches, such as Metcalfe's Law, and explores how Bitcoin's computing power and network size contribute to its long-term potential.
伯恩斯坦也分析了梅特卡夫定律等各種估值方法,並探討了比特幣的運算能力和網路規模如何為其長期潛力做出貢獻。
Moreover, the guide addresses how Bitcoin fits into broader portfolio strategies, especially concerning its volatility and how it might serve as a hedge, despite being far more volatile than traditional assets like gold. Investors are advised to approach Bitcoin with a venture capital mindset—keeping position sizes small, diversifying, and maintaining a long-term view to mitigate risks associated with its price swings.
此外,該指南還討論了比特幣如何適應更廣泛的投資組合策略,特別是關於其波動性以及如何作為對沖工具,儘管其波動性遠高於黃金等傳統資產。建議投資人以創投的心態對待比特幣——保持較小的部位規模、多元化,並保持長遠眼光,以減輕與其價格波動相關的風險。
The report also touches upon Bitcoin's growing importance as a corporate treasury asset, highlighting how large firms are adopting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve.
該報告還談到了比特幣作為企業財務資產日益增長的重要性,並強調了大公司如何採用比特幣作為策略儲備。
Key Insights:
主要見解:
Institutional Involvement in Bitcoin ETFs Surges
機構對比特幣 ETF 的參與激增
Bernstein's analysis reveals a major uptick in institutional involvement, with global asset managers now holding nearly $60 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs by 2024—a significant leap from $12 billion in 2022. The launch of these ETFs has marked the most successful launch in the history of exchange-traded funds, with $18.5 billion in inflows year-to-date since their January debut. The report emphasizes that Bitcoin ETFs have become the primary gateway for large-scale institutional investment.
Bernstein 的分析顯示,機構參與度大幅上升,到2024 年,全球資產管理公司目前將持有近600 億美元的比特幣和以太坊ETF,較2022 年的120 億美元大幅躍升。著史上最成功的推出自 1 月首次亮相以來,今年迄今已有 185 億美元的資金流入。報告強調,比特幣ETF已成為大規模機構投資的主要門戶。
Bitcoin's Path to $200,000 by 2025
比特幣到 2025 年將達到 20 萬美元
Bernstein remains highly optimistic about Bitcoin's future, predicting it could hit $200,000 by the end of 2025, largely driven by institutional adoption, particularly through ETFs. Bitcoin has already surged 120% over the last year, bringing its market cap to $1.3 trillion. As demand continues to grow, miners are scaling their infrastructure to meet these needs, with Wall Street expected to play a more prominent role in the market.
Bernstein 對比特幣的未來仍然高度樂觀,預計到 2025 年底,比特幣的價格可能會達到 20 萬美元,這主要是由機構採用(特別是透過 ETF)推動的。比特幣去年飆升 120%,市值達到 1.3 兆美元。隨著需求持續成長,礦商正在擴展其基礎設施以滿足這些需求,華爾街預計將在市場中發揮更重要的作用。
Bitcoin as a Corporate Treasury Asset
比特幣作為企業財務資產
Companies like MicroStrategy are leading the way in using Bitcoin as a corporate treasury asset, with more than 99% of its cash reserves now held in Bitcoin. The report notes that MicroStrategy holds approximately 1.3% of Bitcoin's total supply. The report highlights that investing through equities like MicroStrategy offers superior returns compared to holding Bitcoin directly or via ETFs, calling this approach an “active leveraged Bitcoin equity strategy.”
像 MicroStrategy 這樣的公司在使用比特幣作為企業財務資產方面處於領先地位,目前其 99% 以上的現金儲備都是比特幣。報告指出,MicroStrategy 持有比特幣總供應量的約 1.3%。該報告強調,與直接或透過 ETF 持有比特幣相比,透過 MicroStrategy 等股票進行投資可提供更高的回報,並將這種方法稱為「主動槓桿比特幣股票策略」。
Consolidation in the Bitcoin Mining Industry
比特幣挖礦產業的整合
The Bitcoin mining sector is undergoing substantial consolidation, with large players such as Riot Platforms and Marathon acquiring smaller operations. According to Bernstein, these major mining companies are on track to control at least 20 gigawatts of global power supply by 2025. The trend toward consolidation is expected to continue, with miners also moving into AI data centers to capitalize on excess energy.
比特幣挖礦產業正在經歷大幅整合,Riot Platforms 和 Marathon 等大型企業收購了規模較小的業務。 Bernstein 表示,到 2025 年,這些主要礦業公司預計將控制至少 20 吉瓦的全球電力供應。
Bitcoin Mining and AI
比特幣挖礦和人工智慧
The report also explores the increasing intersection of Bitcoin mining and AI infrastructure. Miners are positioned to become key players in AI data centers due to their access to large-scale power supplies. Bitcoin miners are capitalizing on this by offering energy at much lower costs compared to traditional data centers, creating an “energy arbitrage” opportunity.
該報告也探討了比特幣挖礦和人工智慧基礎設施日益增長的交叉點。由於能夠獲得大規模電力供應,礦工有望成為人工智慧資料中心的關鍵參與者。比特幣礦工正在利用這一點,以比傳統資料中心低得多的成本提供能源,創造「能源套利」機會。
Mainstream Adoption of Bitcoin ETFs
比特幣 ETF 的主流採用
Bernstein predicts that the adoption of Bitcoin ETFs will soon surpass that of traditional assets, largely due to the challenges retail investors face in self-custodying digital assets. The market cap for Bitcoin is projected to grow to over $3 trillion by 2025 as wealth management platforms and institutional investors allocate more resources to the cryptocurrency.
伯恩斯坦預測,比特幣 ETF 的採用率很快就會超過傳統資產,這很大程度上是由於散戶投資者在自我託管數位資產方面面臨的挑戰。隨著財富管理平台和機構投資者向加密貨幣配置更多資源,預計到 2025 年,比特幣的市值將成長至超過 3 兆美元。
Bernstein's guide presents a clear path forward for Bitcoin, as it becomes increasingly integrated into both traditional financial systems and cutting-edge AI infrastructure.
伯恩斯坦的指南為比特幣指明了一條清晰的前進道路,因為它越來越多地融入傳統金融系統和尖端人工智慧基礎設施。
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