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中国经济增长明显放缓。今年,它可能无法实现本已较低的5%的年增长率目标。
China's slowing economic growth, which may fall short of the already low 5% annual target this year, has broader implications beyond the realm of economics - including Bitcoin. Here's how China's slowing growth may be a hidden bullish factor as BTC price tests upward momentum after a couple of months of stagnation, a theme I often explore in my book on Bitcoin + China.
中国经济增长放缓,今年可能达不到本已很低的 5% 年度目标,其影响超出了经济领域——包括比特币。随着比特币价格在经历了几个月的停滞后测试上涨势头,中国的增长放缓可能是一个隐藏的看涨因素,这是我在《比特币+中国》一书中经常探讨的主题。
1- Chinese Investors Seek An Exit From Stagnating Assets In China
1-中国投资者寻求退出中国停滞的资产
Asset bubbles are being created in China, evident in the stark increase in gold prices. With Chinese equities and real estate down, there's a premium for getting money out of the Chinese system and seeing a return elsewhere. Chinese investors have been driving up gold ETFs and government bonds. In 2022, Chinese savers were estimated to sock away over $2.6 trillion in the domestic Chinese banking sector.
中国正在制造资产泡沫,金价的大幅上涨就证明了这一点。随着中国股市和房地产的下跌,将资金从中国体系中取出并在其他地方获得回报会产生溢价。中国投资者一直在推高黄金ETF和政府债券。据估计,到 2022 年,中国储户将在国内银行业储蓄超过 2.6 万亿美元。
However, that behavior may change with interest rates now ticking down and more stimulus being put on the table. A persistently high Chinese savings rate unique among other nations may need a new place to go: with historic interest in Bitcoin, stablecoins, and other cryptocurrencies, Chinese investors looking for an exit ramp may just choose Bitcoin's allure - a path towards getting money out of the Chinese system and being able to transact with financial freedom.
然而,随着利率现在的下降和更多刺激措施的出台,这种行为可能会改变。中国在其他国家中独一无二的持续高储蓄率可能需要一个新的去处:由于对比特币、稳定币和其他加密货币的历史兴趣,寻求退出坡道的中国投资者可能会选择比特币的吸引力——一条将资金撤出的途径。中国的体系并能够进行财务自由的交易。
With an exchange ban in the Mainland, over-the-counter trading counters are one way for Chinese people to buy Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. Some Chinese crypto buyers use exchanges with different addresses, but many large buyers would prefer to work with OTC desks. Those OTC desks have recently seen record inflows since 2021, showing a rebound from when China imposed restrictions on Bitcoin mining and trading. This recent surge in price-boosting demand seems motivated mainly by the declining return on Chinese assets.
由于内地实行兑换禁令,场外交易柜台是中国人购买比特币或其他加密货币的一种方式。一些中国加密货币买家使用不同地址的交易所,但许多大型买家更愿意与场外交易柜台合作。这些场外交易柜台最近出现了自 2021 年以来创纪录的资金流入,显示出自中国对比特币开采和交易实施限制以来的反弹。最近价格上涨的需求激增似乎主要是由于中国资产回报率下降所致。
2- China's Central Bank Piles More On Stimulus Fire In Response
2-中国央行加大刺激力度以应对
Economic downturn in China has put pressure on both monetary and fiscal authorities to turn the economy around. The most alarming statistic is the high unemployment rate for youth. China's central bank is decreasing interest rate targeting and loosening the money supply, which will help in the short term with Bitcoin's correlation with risk assets as central banks race with one another to fight growing downturns in the economy around the world.
中国的经济低迷给货币和财政当局带来了扭转经济的压力。最令人震惊的统计数据是年轻人的高失业率。中国央行正在降低利率目标并放松货币供应量,这将在短期内有助于改善比特币与风险资产的相关性,因为各国央行都在竞相应对全球经济日益下滑的局面。
Already, Chinese investors are pivoting back from bonds to Chinese equities - a risk asset more correlated with Bitcoin's price. In the United States, the Federal Reserve is also lowering rates and expanding US monetary supply, which will allow the Chinese central bank to also lower rates to keep the Yuan at the same preferred trading range as now and not to worry about a weakening Yuan against the US dollar (in fact, both may just weaken against Bitcoin.)
中国投资者已经从债券转向中国股票——一种与比特币价格更相关的风险资产。在美国,美联储也在降低利率并扩大美国货币供应量,这将使中国央行也可以降低利率,以将人民币维持在与现在相同的首选交易区间,而不必担心人民币兑美元贬值美元(事实上,两者兑比特币都可能走弱。)
3- Chinese Businesses Still A Large Part Of Bitcoin's Network
3-中国企业仍然是比特币网络的很大一部分
In the case of Bitcoin mining, it's estimated that about 20% of the global hash rate still resides in China despite increasing amounts of restrictions and province-level bans as of 2022. As local governments in China struggle to raise tax revenue because of declining land value, the prospect of working with companies that can leverage stranded power into tax revenue and economic growth becomes much more attractive - and may account for the surprising amount of global hash rate securing the Bitcoin network remaining in China despite the level of restrictions and bans.
就比特币挖矿而言,尽管截至 2022 年限制和省级禁令不断增加,但估计全球约 20% 的算力仍位于中国。由于土地面积减少,中国地方政府难以提高税收收入随着价值的增加,与能够利用搁浅权力转化为税收和经济增长的公司合作的前景变得更具吸引力,并且可能解释为什么尽管存在一定程度的限制和禁令,但全球哈希率仍能确保比特币网络仍留在中国。
Bitmain and Bitcoin mining companies were originally from China. Though tariffs have hit them on the American side and restrictions on the Chinese side, and now they manufacture mostly outside of China, they still maintain many offices in China. Many mining pools offering software that coordinates Bitcoin mining originated from China, and exchanges such as Binance, Huobi, and OKX did, too. As an economic downturn with few state-guided technological windfalls unwinds, the entrepreneurial energy dedicated to starting Bitcoin's momentum in China may now be directed towards Bitcoin again, along with increases in buying activity. Chinese entrepreneurs, businesses, and buyers will once again have the opportunity to contribute their efforts to Bitcoin - as I've written at length about in my book on Bitcoin + China. China's loss, in this case, may well be Bitcoin's gain.
比特大陆和比特币挖矿公司最初来自中国。尽管美国方面对他们施加了关税,中国方面也施加了限制,而且现在他们大部分在中国境外生产,但他们仍然在中国设有许多办事处。许多提供协调比特币挖矿软件的矿池都源自中国,币安、火币和 OKX 等交易所也是如此。随着经济低迷时期国家引导的技术意外之财的减少,致力于在中国启动比特币势头的创业能量现在可能会再次转向比特币,同时购买活动也会增加。中国的企业家、企业和买家将再次有机会为比特币做出贡献——正如我在《比特币+中国》一书中详细写到的那样。在这种情况下,中国的损失很可能就是比特币的收益。
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