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中國經濟成長明顯放緩。今年,它可能無法實現本已較低的5%的年增長率目標。
China's slowing economic growth, which may fall short of the already low 5% annual target this year, has broader implications beyond the realm of economics - including Bitcoin. Here's how China's slowing growth may be a hidden bullish factor as BTC price tests upward momentum after a couple of months of stagnation, a theme I often explore in my book on Bitcoin + China.
中國經濟成長放緩,今年可能達不到本已很低的 5% 年度目標,其影響超出了經濟領域——包括比特幣。隨著比特幣價格在經歷了幾個月的停滯後測試上漲勢頭,中國的成長放緩可能是一個隱藏的看漲因素,這是我在《比特幣+中國》一書中經常探討的主題。
1- Chinese Investors Seek An Exit From Stagnating Assets In China
1-中國投資者尋求退出中國停滯的資產
Asset bubbles are being created in China, evident in the stark increase in gold prices. With Chinese equities and real estate down, there's a premium for getting money out of the Chinese system and seeing a return elsewhere. Chinese investors have been driving up gold ETFs and government bonds. In 2022, Chinese savers were estimated to sock away over $2.6 trillion in the domestic Chinese banking sector.
中國正在製造資產泡沫,金價的大幅上漲就證明了這一點。隨著中國股市和房地產的下跌,將資金從中國體系中取出並在其他地方獲得回報會產生溢價。中國投資者一直在推高黃金ETF和政府公債。據估計,到 2022 年,中國儲戶將在國內銀行業儲蓄超過 2.6 兆美元。
However, that behavior may change with interest rates now ticking down and more stimulus being put on the table. A persistently high Chinese savings rate unique among other nations may need a new place to go: with historic interest in Bitcoin, stablecoins, and other cryptocurrencies, Chinese investors looking for an exit ramp may just choose Bitcoin's allure - a path towards getting money out of the Chinese system and being able to transact with financial freedom.
然而,隨著利率現在的下降和更多刺激措施的出台,這種行為可能會改變。中國在其他國家中獨一無二的持續高儲蓄率可能需要一個新的去處:由於對比特幣、穩定幣和其他加密貨幣的歷史興趣,尋求退出坡道的中國投資者可能會選擇比特幣的吸引力— —一條將資金撤出的途徑。
With an exchange ban in the Mainland, over-the-counter trading counters are one way for Chinese people to buy Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. Some Chinese crypto buyers use exchanges with different addresses, but many large buyers would prefer to work with OTC desks. Those OTC desks have recently seen record inflows since 2021, showing a rebound from when China imposed restrictions on Bitcoin mining and trading. This recent surge in price-boosting demand seems motivated mainly by the declining return on Chinese assets.
由於內地實施兌換禁令,場外交易櫃檯是中國人購買比特幣或其他加密貨幣的一種方式。一些中國加密貨幣買家使用不同地址的交易所,但許多大型買家更願意與場外交易櫃檯合作。這些場外交易櫃檯最近出現了自 2021 年以來創紀錄的資金流入,顯示出自中國對比特幣開採和交易實施限制以來的反彈。最近價格上漲的需求激增似乎主要是由於中國資產回報率下降所致。
2- China's Central Bank Piles More On Stimulus Fire In Response
2-中國央行加大刺激力度以應對
Economic downturn in China has put pressure on both monetary and fiscal authorities to turn the economy around. The most alarming statistic is the high unemployment rate for youth. China's central bank is decreasing interest rate targeting and loosening the money supply, which will help in the short term with Bitcoin's correlation with risk assets as central banks race with one another to fight growing downturns in the economy around the world.
中國的經濟低迷給貨幣和財政當局帶來了扭轉經濟的壓力。最令人震驚的統計數據是年輕人的高失業率。中國央行正在降低利率目標並放鬆貨幣供應量,這將在短期內有助於改善比特幣與風險資產的相關性,因為各國央行都在競相應對全球經濟日益下滑的局面。
Already, Chinese investors are pivoting back from bonds to Chinese equities - a risk asset more correlated with Bitcoin's price. In the United States, the Federal Reserve is also lowering rates and expanding US monetary supply, which will allow the Chinese central bank to also lower rates to keep the Yuan at the same preferred trading range as now and not to worry about a weakening Yuan against the US dollar (in fact, both may just weaken against Bitcoin.)
中國投資者已經從債券轉向中國股票——一種與比特幣價格更相關的風險資產。在美國,聯準會也在降低利率並擴大美國貨幣供應量,這將使中國央行也可以降低利率,以將人民幣維持在與現在相同的首選交易區間,而不必擔心人民幣兌美元貶值美元(事實上,兩者兌比特幣都可能走弱。
3- Chinese Businesses Still A Large Part Of Bitcoin's Network
3-中國企業仍然是比特幣網路的很大一部分
In the case of Bitcoin mining, it's estimated that about 20% of the global hash rate still resides in China despite increasing amounts of restrictions and province-level bans as of 2022. As local governments in China struggle to raise tax revenue because of declining land value, the prospect of working with companies that can leverage stranded power into tax revenue and economic growth becomes much more attractive - and may account for the surprising amount of global hash rate securing the Bitcoin network remaining in China despite the level of restrictions and bans.
就比特幣挖礦而言,儘管截至 2022 年限制和省級禁令不斷增加,但估計全球約 20% 的算力仍位於中國。 ,與能夠利用擱淺權力轉化為稅收和經濟成長的公司合作的前景變得更具吸引力,並且可能解釋為什麼儘管存在一定程度的限制和禁令,但全球哈希率仍能確保比特幣網絡仍留在中國。
Bitmain and Bitcoin mining companies were originally from China. Though tariffs have hit them on the American side and restrictions on the Chinese side, and now they manufacture mostly outside of China, they still maintain many offices in China. Many mining pools offering software that coordinates Bitcoin mining originated from China, and exchanges such as Binance, Huobi, and OKX did, too. As an economic downturn with few state-guided technological windfalls unwinds, the entrepreneurial energy dedicated to starting Bitcoin's momentum in China may now be directed towards Bitcoin again, along with increases in buying activity. Chinese entrepreneurs, businesses, and buyers will once again have the opportunity to contribute their efforts to Bitcoin - as I've written at length about in my book on Bitcoin + China. China's loss, in this case, may well be Bitcoin's gain.
比特大陸和比特幣挖礦公司原本來自中國。儘管美國方面對他們施加了關稅,中國方面也施加了限制,現在他們大部分在中國境外生產,但他們仍然在中國設有許多辦事處。許多提供協調比特幣挖礦軟體的礦池都源自中國,幣安、火幣和 OKX 等交易所也是如此。隨著經濟低迷期的到來,國家引導的技術意外之財寥寥無幾,隨著購買活動的增加,致力於在中國啟動比特幣勢頭的創業能量現在可能會再次轉向比特幣。中國的企業家、企業和買家將再次有機會為比特幣貢獻自己的力量——正如我在《比特幣+中國》一書中詳細寫到的那樣。在這種情況下,中國的損失很可能就是比特幣的收益。
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