Cameco：核复兴的基石

随着气候变化成为大多数国家日益关注的问题，能源供应脱碳变得更加紧迫。我们在可再生能源方面做了很多工作，但仍然不够。

With climate change becoming a major concern in most countries, the need to decarbonize our energy supply is becoming more pressing. A lot is being done with renewables, but still not enough. The issue of renewables intermittency will still take a while to be solved with utility-scale battery storage.

随着气候变化成为大多数国家的主要关注点，能源供应脱碳的需求变得更加紧迫。我们在可再生能源方面做了很多工作，但仍然不够。可再生能源间歇性问题仍需要一段时间才能通过公用事业规模的电池存储来解决。

The problem is compounded by growing energy demand from AI and the electrification of everything, from transportation to industry and heating/cooling. This means that not only do we need to decarbonize power generation, but we likely need to at least double or triple electricity generation as well for our future energy mix to work.

人工智能和一切电气化（从交通到工业和供暖/制冷）不断增长的能源需求使问题变得更加复杂。这意味着我们不仅需要使发电脱碳，而且可能还需要将发电量至少增加一倍或三倍，以使我们未来的能源结构发挥作用。

Overall, we are likely to need all the possible low-carbon solutions we can deploy sooner rather than later. Part of this growing electricity production will need to be very stable baseload generation.

总的来说，我们可能需要尽早部署所有可能的低碳解决方案。不断增长的电力生产的一部分需要非常稳定的基荷发电。

This demand will most likely need to be satisfied with nuclear power. And no other company in North America (or even the West at large) will be as instrumental in making it happen as Cameco.

这种需求很可能需要通过核电来满足。北美（甚至整个西方）没有其他公司能像 Cameco 那样在实现这一目标方面发挥如此重要的作用。

Cameco Corporation (CCJ)

卡梅科公司 (CCJ)

Nuclear Industry's Outlook

核工业展望

For a while, the incidents of Chernobyl and Fukushima were seen as proof that nuclear energy was just too dangerous. Still, before them, there was a time when it seemed clear that the future was nuclear and that burning coal, oil, and gas would soon be as obsolete as the Netherlands' picturesque windmills.

有一段时间，切尔诺贝利和福岛事件被视为核能过于危险的证据。尽管如此，在他们之前，有一段时间似乎很清楚，未来是核能，燃烧煤炭、石油和天然气很快就会像荷兰风景如画的风车一样被淘汰。

Nuclear power production stopped growing in the late 1990s post-Chernobyl and has stagnated globally since, with China's growing production compensating for the declining European nuclear industry.

切尔诺贝利事故后的 20 世纪 90 年代末核电产量停止增长，此后全球范围内一直停滞不前，中国不断增长的产量弥补了欧洲核工业的衰退。

For many years, only China and Russia seemed willing to develop nuclear energy. Especially China, which is, as The Economist put it, “building nuclear reactors faster than any other country”.

多年来，似乎只有中国和俄罗斯愿意发展核能。尤其是中国，正如《经济学人》所说，“建造核反应堆的速度比任何其他国家都快”。

The Ukraine war, a global energy crisis, and the realization that decarbonization with renewables only will take too long is quickly changing the perception of nuclear.

乌克兰战争、全球能源危机以及可再生能源脱碳需要太长时间的认识正在迅速改变人们对核能的看法。

So today, nuclear energy is making a comeback globally, at a scale unimaginable a few years ago, with many news pointing at a change in policies throughout most of the world:

因此，今天，核能正在全球范围内卷土重来，其规模在几年​​前是难以想象的，许多新闻都表明世界大部分地区的政策发生了变化：

All this talk about a nuclear renaissance was before the AI craze leading companies like Microsoft to eagerly lock in the future 20 years of energy production of an entire nuclear power plant for its AI datacenters.

所有这些关于核复兴的讨论都发生在人工智能热潮之前，微软等公司急切地锁定了整个核电站未来 20 年的能源生产，用于其人工智能数据中心。

Not long after, Amazon was rejected from securing a similar deal on the grounds that tech companies cannot be allowed to absorb all the nuclear power available:

不久之后，亚马逊被拒绝达成类似交易，理由是不能允许科技公司吸收所有可用的核能：

We are on the cusp of a new phase in the energy transition, one that is characterized as much by soaring energy demand, due in large part to AI, as it is by rapid changes in the resource mix.

我们正处于能源转型新阶段的风口浪尖，这一阶段的特点是能源需求飙升（很大程度上归因于人工智能）和资源结构的快速变化。

Co-location arrangements of the type presented here present an array of complicated, nuanced, and multifaceted issues, which collectively could have huge ramifications for both grid reliability and consumer costs.”

这里提出的这种类型的共址安排带来了一系列复杂、微妙和多方面的问题，这些问题共同可能对电网可靠性和消费者成本产生巨大影响。”

Democratic chair Willie Phillips

民主党主席威利·菲利普斯

Another boost to nuclear energy is the emergence of new technology to make it a lot safer, especially:

核能的另一个推动力是新技术的出现，使其更加安全，特别是：

Overall, China has been leading in this field, notably with the first 4th generation nuclear power plant launched in 2023. Western countries are now starting to pick up as well, as most likely to look at streamlining some regulations to bring the cost of new reactors down.

总体而言，中国在这一领域一直处于领先地位，尤其是第一座第四代核电站于 2023 年启动。西方国家现在也开始崛起，因为最有可能考虑简化一些法规以降低新反应堆的成本向下。

Another key factor in decreasing costs will be to build in series the new reactors, whether traditional design or SMRs, in order to achieve economy of scale instead of the one-of-a-kind designs that have been built so far.

降低成本的另一个关键因素是串联建造新反应堆，无论是传统设计还是小型反应堆，以实现规模经济，而不是迄今为止建造的独一无二的设计。

Nuclear Trump Effect?

核特朗普效应？

With Trump elected president for a second time, it makes sense to look back at his position on energy. On the one hand, strong support for fossil fuel extraction is to be expected.

随着特朗普第二次当选总统，回顾他在能源问题上的立场是有道理的。一方面，预计化石燃料开采将得到强有力的支持。

“You are looking at, overall, a ‘drill baby drill’ philosophy. You are going to see offshore lease sales; you are going to pipelines move much quicker; you are going to see fracking on federal lands and a mindset that is focused on lowering energy costs for consumers,”

“总的来说，你正在寻找一种‘训练婴儿训练’的理念。你将会看到离岸租赁销售；管道的移动速度将会更快；你将看到联邦土地上的水力压裂和专注于降低消费者能源成本的心态，”

Dan Eberhart – CEO of Canary LLC, an oilfield services company.

Dan Eberhart – 油田服务公司 Canary LLC 的首席执行官。

However, it will also likely include nuclear energy. The overall goal is to get the cost of energy to go down. His own campaign emphasized its 1st term activity in favor of nuclear energy:

然而，它也可能包括核能。总体目标是降低能源成本。他自己的竞选活动强调了第一届任期内支持核能的活动：

There is little reason to expect less about nuclear from a candidate who has been enthusiastically looking to reduce dependency on foreign powers, massive infrastructure spending, and a focus on re-industrialization.

对于一位一直热衷于减少对外国势力的依赖、大规模基础设施支出以及对再工业化的关注的候选人来说，我们没有理由对核能抱有较低的期望。

So while Trump's election might be bad news for renewables, it could be a good one for the nuclear industry.

因此，虽然特朗普的当选对可再生能源来说可能是个坏消息，但对核工业来说却可能是个好消息。

Cameco

卡梅科

Cameco is the world's second-largest uranium miner, with mines mainly producing in Canada. This puts it just behind Kazatomprom in Kazakhstan. Its main mines are Cigar Lake and McArthur River/Key Lake in the Province of Saskatchewan.

Cameco是世界第二大铀矿开采商，其矿山主要产自加拿大。这使其仅次于哈萨克斯坦的 Kazatomprom。其主要矿山是萨斯喀彻温省的雪茄湖和麦克阿瑟河/基湖。

As a result, Cameco will be at the center of supplying the raw materials required by existing and future nuclear power plants.

因此，Cameco 将成为现有和未来核电站所需原材料的供应中心。

Since 2022, Cameco

自2022年起，卡梅科