看涨前景：摩根大通认为比特币将在 2025 年之前上涨

全球投资银行摩根大通周四发布了一份报告，详细介绍了唐纳德·特朗普最近在美国总统大选中的胜利可能会如何促进比特币和黄金投资

Global investment bank JPMorgan has provided a bullish outlook for bitcoin in a recent report, indicating that the cryptocurrency may benefit from Trump’s economic policies and an intensified “debasement trade” strategy.

全球投资银行摩根大通在最近的一份报告中对比特币给出了看涨的前景，表明加密货币可能受益于特朗普的经济政策和强化的“贬值贸易”策略。

The report, published on Thursday, highlights how bitcoin and gold are often favored as hedges against currency devaluation, a tactic known as the “debasement trade.” This strategy aims to acquire assets that tend to retain value during periods of inflation or fiscal policies that expand national debt, leading to a decrease in the purchasing power of fiat currencies.

周四发布的这份报告强调了比特币和黄金如何经常被青睐作为货币贬值的对冲工具，这种策略被称为“贬值交易”。该策略旨在收购在通货膨胀或扩大国债的财政政策期间倾向于保值的资产，从而导致法定货币的购买力下降。

According to JPMorgan’s managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Trump’s policies could amplify this debasement trade, considering factors such as tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and expansive fiscal measures that increase debt.

摩根大通董事总经理尼古拉斯·帕尼吉尔佐格鲁(Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou)表示，考虑到关税、地缘政治紧张局势以及增加债务的扩张性财政措施等因素，特朗普的政策可能会放大这种贬值贸易。

“We do not see the initial negative market reaction by gold as a rejection of the ‘debasement trade’ under a Trump win,” Panigirtzoglou explained to The Block. “After all, bitcoin, the other component of the ‘debasement trade’ rallied after the Trump win.”

Panigirtzoglou 向 The Block 解释道：“我们并不认为黄金最初的负面市场反应是对特朗普获胜下‘贬值贸易’的拒绝。” “毕竟，‘贬值交易’的另一个组成部分——比特币在特朗普获胜后出现了反弹。”

Following the U.S. presidential election, bitcoin’s price surged to an all-time high of $76,244 on Nov. 6, before stabilizing at around $75,100.

美国总统大选后，比特币价格于 11 月 6 日飙升至 76,244 美元的历史新高，随后稳定在 75,100 美元左右。

Moreover, JPMorgan analysts anticipate sustained momentum for bitcoin, partly driven by Microstrategy’s aggressive investment approach, known as the “21/21 plan.” This strategy aims to raise $42 billion over three years, with funds allocated equally between equity and fixed-income securities.

此外，摩根大通分析师预计比特币将保持持续增长势头，部分原因是 Microstrategy 积极的投资方式（即“21/21 计划”）。该战略旨在三年内筹集 420 亿美元，资金在股票和固定收益证券之间平均分配。

“For 2025 alone MicroStrategy would be investing $10 billion into bitcoin which is roughly equal to its cumulative purchases so far since mid-2020!” the report noted.

“仅 2025 年，MicroStrategy 就将向比特币投资 100 亿美元，这大致相当于自 2020 年中期以来的累计购买量！”报告指出。

The bank also observed a rise in retail investment in bitcoin and gold, particularly through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This trend, which has been evident since last summer, is expected to continue in 2025 during Trump’s administration.

该银行还观察到比特币和黄金的零售投资有所增加，特别是通过交易所交易基金（ETF）进行的投资。这一趋势自去年夏天以来就已经很明显，预计将在 2025 年特朗普执政期间继续下去。

Additionally, central banks are likely to increase demand for gold as institutions like China’s People’s Bank diversify reserves in response to tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties.

此外，随着中国人民银行等机构为应对关税和地缘政治不确定性而实现储备多元化，各国央行可能会增加对黄金的需求。