看漲前景：摩根大通認為比特幣將在 2025 年之前上漲

全球投資銀行摩根大通週四發布了一份報告，詳細介紹了唐納德·川普最近在美國總統大選中的勝利可能會如何促進比特幣和黃金投資

Global investment bank JPMorgan has provided a bullish outlook for bitcoin in a recent report, indicating that the cryptocurrency may benefit from Trump’s economic policies and an intensified “debasement trade” strategy.

全球投資銀行摩根大通在最近的一份報告中對比特幣給出了看漲的前景，表明加密貨幣可能受益於川普的經濟政策和強化的「貶值貿易」策略。

The report, published on Thursday, highlights how bitcoin and gold are often favored as hedges against currency devaluation, a tactic known as the “debasement trade.” This strategy aims to acquire assets that tend to retain value during periods of inflation or fiscal policies that expand national debt, leading to a decrease in the purchasing power of fiat currencies.

週四發布的這份報告強調了比特幣和黃金如何經常被青睞作為貨幣貶值的對沖工具，這種策略被稱為「貶值交易」。該策略旨在收購在通貨膨脹或擴大國債的財政政策期間傾向於保值的資產，從而導致法定貨幣的購買力下降。

According to JPMorgan’s managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Trump’s policies could amplify this debasement trade, considering factors such as tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and expansive fiscal measures that increase debt.

摩根大通董事總經理尼古拉斯·帕尼吉爾佐格魯(Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou)表示，考慮到關稅、地緣政治緊張局勢以及增加債務的擴張性財政措施等因素，川普的政策可能會放大這種貶值貿易。

“We do not see the initial negative market reaction by gold as a rejection of the ‘debasement trade’ under a Trump win,” Panigirtzoglou explained to The Block. “After all, bitcoin, the other component of the ‘debasement trade’ rallied after the Trump win.”

Panigirtzoglou 向 The Block 解釋道：“我們不認為黃金最初的負面市場反應是對川普獲勝下‘貶值貿易’的拒絕。” “畢竟，’貶值交易’的另一個組成部分——比特幣在川普獲勝後出現了反彈。”

Following the U.S. presidential election, bitcoin’s price surged to an all-time high of $76,244 on Nov. 6, before stabilizing at around $75,100.

美國總統大選後，比特幣價格於 11 月 6 日飆升至 76,244 美元的歷史新高，隨後穩定在 75,100 美元左右。

Moreover, JPMorgan analysts anticipate sustained momentum for bitcoin, partly driven by Microstrategy’s aggressive investment approach, known as the “21/21 plan.” This strategy aims to raise $42 billion over three years, with funds allocated equally between equity and fixed-income securities.

此外，摩根大通分析師預計比特幣將保持持續成長勢頭，部分原因是 Microstrategy 積極的投資方式（即「21/21 計畫」）。該策略旨在三年內籌集 420 億美元，資金在股票和固定收益證券之間平均分配。

“For 2025 alone MicroStrategy would be investing $10 billion into bitcoin which is roughly equal to its cumulative purchases so far since mid-2020!” the report noted.

「僅在 2025 年，MicroStrategy 將向比特幣投資 100 億美元，這大致相當於自 2020 年中期以來的累積購買量！”報告指出。

The bank also observed a rise in retail investment in bitcoin and gold, particularly through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This trend, which has been evident since last summer, is expected to continue in 2025 during Trump’s administration.

該銀行也觀察到比特幣和黃金的零售投資增加，特別是透過交易所交易基金（ETF）進行的投資。這一趨勢自去年夏天以來就已經很明顯，預計將在 2025 年川普執政期間繼續下去。

Additionally, central banks are likely to increase demand for gold as institutions like China’s People’s Bank diversify reserves in response to tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties.

此外，隨著中國人民銀行等機構為因應關稅和地緣政治不確定性而實現儲備多元化，各國央行可能會增加對黃金的需求。