比特币（BTC）看涨的美联储降息并不像你想象的那么简单

乍一看，美联储降息似乎是一个看涨信号，但事实并非如此。

The Federal Reserve (Fed) might start cutting interest rates this year, following Friday's inflation report. Crypto traders are betting that the move will boost fiat liquidity, driving demand for riskier assets like bitcoin (BTC). However, that might not be a straightforward bullish play.

在周五公布通胀报告后，美联储（Fed）今年可能开始降息。加密货币交易员押注此举将提高法定流动性，从而推动对比特币（BTC）等风险较高资产的需求。然而，这可能不是一个简单的看涨策略。

Here's why: A rate cut might stimulate asset prices if it arrives at a time of low inflation and a booming economy. One that takes place amid signs of economic weakness could convey a bearish signal, prompting investors to rotate money out of riskier assets and into safer ones, such as government bonds.

原因如下：如果在低通胀和经济繁荣时期降息可能会刺激资产价格。在经济疲软迹象中发生的情况可能会传达看跌信号，促使投资者将资金从风险较高的资产转向更安全的资产，例如政府债券。

"If the Fed cuts rates in September 2024 due to inflation concerns, it could be short-term bullish for bitcoin," Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. "However, if growth concerns drive the cut, either in September or later, bitcoin might face significant selling pressure."

10x Research 创始人马库斯·蒂伦 (Markus Thielen) 在与 CoinDesk 分享的一份报告中表示：“如果美联储因通胀担忧而在 2024 年 9 月降息，那么比特币可能会短期看涨。” “然而，如果增长担忧推动降息，无论是在 9 月还是之后，比特币可能会面临巨大的抛售压力。”

Historically, bitcoin has gained the most when the Fed pauses its cycle of rate increases, Thielen noted. The arrival of the first cut has usually met with a tepid response.

蒂伦指出，从历史上看，当美联储暂停加息周期时，比特币涨幅最大。第一次削减的到来通常反应不温不火。

"During the Fed's pause from rate hikes until July 2019, bitcoin experienced explosive growth, returning +169%. Following a seven-month pause in 2019, the Fed cut interest rates, initiating a steep rate-cutting cycle. Initially, bitcoin responded positively, rallying +19% within a week after the July 31, 2019, rate cut. However, two weeks later, Bitcoin was back to flat," Thielen said.

“在美联储暂停加息至2019年7月期间，比特币经历了爆发式增长，回报率+169%。在2019年暂停加息7个月后，美联储降息，开启了大幅降息周期。最初，比特币反应积极” 2019 年 7 月 31 日降息后一周内上涨了 19%，但两周后，比特币又恢复持平。”

Thielen added that the rate cuts in the second half of 2019 were driven by economic uncertainties and weighed on BTC's price. The cryptocurrency's price fell 33% in the second half of the year, CoinDesk data show.

Thielen 补充说，2019 年下半年的降息是由经济不确定性推动的，并打压了 BTC 的价格。 CoinDesk 数据显示，该加密货币的价格在今年下半年下跌了 33%。

U.S. stocks show a similar pattern.

美国股市也呈现出类似的走势。

"The arrival of a Fed rate cut cycle has tended to coincide with a sizable stock-market drawdown,” Austin Pickle, a strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said last month, according to MarketWatch. “Since 1974, the average drawdown has been roughly 20% over 250 days following the first Fed rate cut.”

据 MarketWatch 报道，富国银行投资研究所 (Wells Fargo Investment Institute) 策略师奥斯汀·皮克尔 (Austin Pickle) 上个月表示，“美联储降息周期的到来往往与股市大幅下跌同时发生。”美联储首次降息后的 250 天内大约下降了 20%。”

Pickle added that the stock market would suffer if the Fed is forced to cut rates in response to macro weakness.

皮克尔补充说，如果美联储因宏观疲软而被迫降息，股市将受到影响。

That means crypto traders should be watching for signs of weakness in the U.S. economy.

这意味着加密货币交易者应该留意美国经济疲软的迹象。

According to Fidelity's business cycle tracker, the U.S. economy was in the late stage of expansion at the end of the second quarter. Leading indicators like new orders for consumer goods and materials, consumer sentiment and building permits signaled weakness ahead. Should the weakness become more pronounced in coming months, a rate cut will do little for risk assets, including BTC.

富达商业周期追踪报告显示，第二季度末美国经济处于扩张后期。消费品和材料新订单、消费者信心和建筑许可等领先指标预示着未来的疲软。如果未来几个月疲软变得更加明显，降息对包括比特币在内的风险资产几乎没有什么作用。